Down goes the Dow

Recognizer of the obvious wrote:

Portia wrote:

The market is presently in wave 4, according to Goldman market technician Sheba Jafari. That means the next downturn will be limited and followed by another bullish wave. Then we would see a bigger correction.

Just more hot air from Igy. Everyone knows the market will have a correction or worse. That's not news. Now if you can tell us WHEN, then maybe we'll listen.

The 5th of September at 10:33 am ET.

Is that specific enough?

Recognizer of the obvious wrote:

Just more hot air from Igy. Everyone knows the market will have a correction or worse. That's not news. Now if you can tell us WHEN, then maybe we'll listen.

Karnack Magnificent wrote:

Recognizer of the obvious wrote:

Just more hot air from Igy. Everyone knows the market will have a correction or worse. That's not news. Now if you can tell us WHEN, then maybe we'll listen.

The 5th of September at 10:33 am ET.

Is that specific enough?

Given your record, it's a safe bet that it WON'T happen then.

Johnny Hussman wrote:

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170828.htm

And if we look at HSGFX total returns since 08/15/2008 :

$10000 is now $4883.29; a drawdown of over 51%

Since 3/09/2009; $10000 of:

HSGFX $5498

SPY $42351

DIA $40475

VTI $43526

RSP $50692

So, if there is a 60% drawdown of the major indices, will HSGFX's total return be higher at the next trough? HSGFX's AUM was over $6 Billion; now $365 million ! As per Morningstar, Hussman still writes ( sells ) calls, but has stopped buying the usual puts on SPX, NDX and RUT ! Ironically, some of his largest stock positions are IBM, AMZN and MSFT !

Back on 9/13/2016, I posted:

Agip, plus ça change!!!

1/12/1995 The publisher of the Hussman Econometrics newsletter shed his bull outfit in late 1993 and now forecasts the bear market will "become particularly severe" by summer. He bases that on history: Bear markets tend to occur every four to five years, knocking down prices by 20 to 30 percent off their highs. He expects the Dow to fall below 3,000 by early 1996. ( Up over 30% a year later )

3/20/1995 With stock prices continuing to soar, let's check in with John Hussman of Hussman Econometrics, who turned bearish last year after several prosperous years as a bull.

He continues to expect the Dow to sink to 3,000 by early 1996. Among the culprits: the falling dollar and rising inflation.

Except for the weakest period -- 1965 -- all the years whose digits have ended in the number five have been banner years for stocks. But remember, those years began with unusually high dividend yields, averaging 4.7 percent. That's a far cry from the recent 2.75 percent yield on the S&P 500.

At that level, Hussman says stocks are no bargain. But then stock market bears have been saying that for about two years, during which the market has gained 9 percent. ( It sunk to 5000, ended year at 6448.27)

9/12/1995 The publisher of Hussman Econometrics newsletter says that he expects a "sharp" initial bear market decline within the next 12 weeks.

Citing statistics he notes that there have only been five times during this century in which the market's total value relative to gross domestic value exceeded 75 percent. On each occasion the dividend yield of the S&P 500 was 3 percent or less, and stocks wound up underperforming Treasury bills for as long as 10 to 20 years. ( 10 year CAGR: VFINX was 10.03%; CASH was 3.76%. 20 year CAGR: VFINX was 8.90%; CASH was 2.50% )

JH began calling for a market crash at the end of 1993 and every year thereafter until his call was "validated" in 2000, some 6+ years later. What do you think his returns would have been had he started HSGFX in 1994 ? The SP500 TR had a 28.49% CAGR from 1/1995 to 12/99. From 1/2012 to 12/2016 it was 14.49%; during that same period HSGFX is down 39.47%. One could make a strong case that the 1994 HSGFX would be down at least 80% when the bear market hit in 2000. That is, it wasn't closed down by then.

Oh, Snap!

If one believes in full cycle investing, index and active managers who are closet indexing will be the worst performers at the completion of this cycle. So naturally any manager less exposed to highly valued equities or hedged will have ten year returns vastly superior to current pack leaders.

Criticizing Hussman by citing his investment returns clouds the validity of his arguments. Your criticism is typical at the top of the market.

Full cycle investing means you get out at the exact point you got in. Who does that? Perhaps a minuscule percentage of investors. It's a non-argument.

And highlighting Hussman's investment record actually exposes the problems with his arguments. He and his acolytes like Igy have a very narrow view of market fundamentals. It is precisely that tunnel vision that has left them behind in this bull market.

Go, Pats!

Turn Turn wrote:

If one believes in full cycle investing, index and active managers who are closet indexing will be the worst performers at the completion of this cycle. So naturally any manager less exposed to highly valued equities or hedged will have ten year returns vastly superior to current pack leaders.

Criticizing Hussman by citing his investment returns clouds the validity of his arguments. Your criticism is typical at the top of the market.

Market Neutral Strategies should not have 51% drawdowns. They should have a Beta close to zero, not -.47 ; HSGFX SINCE 1/2010. From it's start in 8/2000 until 12/2009, it's Beta was .03 . Hussman seems to prefer the role of Uber -Bear Pundit instead of competent PM and CIO. There are better choices out there.

la gente ésta muy loca wrote:

Turn Turn wrote:

If one believes in full cycle investing, index and active managers who are closet indexing will be the worst performers at the completion of this cycle. So naturally any manager less exposed to highly valued equities or hedged will have ten year returns vastly superior to current pack leaders.

Criticizing Hussman by citing his investment returns clouds the validity of his arguments. Your criticism is typical at the top of the market.

Market Neutral Strategies should not have 51% drawdowns. They should have a Beta close to zero, not -.47 ; HSGFX SINCE 1/2010. From it's start in 8/2000 until 12/2009, it's Beta was .03 . Hussman seems to prefer the role of Uber -Bear Pundit instead of competent PM and CIO. There are better choices out there.

This is more a sign of a market top, I wonder if he sent agip a thank you note.

All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains for 2017 through August 28.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2017/08/28/world-markets-update

Life is good!

la gente ésta muy loca wrote:

la gente ésta muy loca wrote:

Market Neutral Strategies should not have 51% drawdowns. They should have a Beta close to zero, not -.47 ; HSGFX SINCE 1/2010. From it's start in 8/2000 until 12/2009, it's Beta was .03 . Hussman seems to prefer the role of Uber -Bear Pundit instead of competent PM and CIO. There are better choices out there.

This is more a sign of a market top, I wonder if he sent agip a thank you note.

http://dealbreaker.com/2017/08/florida-dude-100-million-short-vix/

heh.

That's a classic 'we'll see who is wearing shorts when the tide goes out' strategy.

But god bless him, if he walks away before he loses it all.

Identifying long term trends is the key to good investing. One is easy: stocks will rise over the long term. That's why it is so easy to make money in the stock market.

The smaller trends like a falling vix are harder.

I know one person who put nearly all she had into long term treasuries, back when interest rates were much higher. Kept them for many many years. Made a freaking fortune on treasuries of all things. No one is supposed to make a fortune on treasuries. She did, but being right that interest rates would fall for years.

GDP growth rate revised up to 3%!

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/us-revised-second-quarter-gdp.html

Stained drawers wrote:

GDP growth rate revised up to 3%!

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/30/us-revised-second-quarter-gdp.html

Great news. The economy is humming!

At the risk of poking the bear, I must admit that this thread is much more enjoyable to read when Igy/K5 is/are not posting.

NASDAQ record high today! Life is good (for those not on the sidelines).

Walrus Gumboot wrote:

At the risk of poking the bear, I must admit that this thread is much more enjoyable to read when Igy/K5 is/are not posting.

Yippie!

I knew it had to be too good to last. Now that Igy is back, the thread will invariably return to the depths of immaturity that he is known for. Sigh...

Walrus Gumboot wrote:

At the risk of poking the bear, I must admit that this thread is much more enjoyable to read when Igy/K5 is/are not posting.

I agree. It is great to live in my bubble world of sunshine and lollipops.