Down goes the Dow

fisky wrote:

Hats to be axed wrote:

Support level?!? You guys must really crack yourselves up. Either that or you are too brain dead to see how idiotic you sound.

Support and resistance levels are common stock market jargon. You'll hear the terms all day long on CNBC.

Why be so juvenile in your post? If you believe support and resistance levels are meaningless, then present your case. If you believe 15,739 is not a meaningful support level, present your case.

Sorry, but the burden of proof lies with those making claims, not the other way around.

Define "Support level". Be specific - no wishy washy language that is wide open for any interpretation one feels like on any given day.

Now prove that such a thing exists for such a well-defined and meaningful term.

Next demonstrate that the numbers you are floating match such definitions and are not just meaningless jargon used by those in the industry because there really isn't much more to say than has been said by another poster above:

The market goes up, the market goes down, repeat. If you wanted to add that it goes up more than it goes down I'm happy to give you that. Anything else is basically BS.

What I really hate about your post is that you're right, I think. Except I think the FED has only sown the seeds of this crisis. It's going to get worse when they sow the seeds of the NEXT crisis. Pollyannas that want to believe you actually make much money buy and holding stock mutual funds might might to take a look at a chart of the second half of 1998, which was the so-called Asian Currency crisis, which really started in 1997 and was the last time the carry trade completely played out. In two months the stock market dropped 20 percent and a bunch of hedge funds (not just LTCM) failed.

Notice, though, that AFTER the market went down 20%, the FED and ECB dumped a bunch of money out there, which overheated every financial market and the market then went up 40-50%, and that was just the prelude to the real show that started in mid 2000. Also remember that in the Asian Crisis, the root cause was debt to GDP levels in four major nations of 167%: Sound Familiar????

"Those who refuse to learn from history are condemned to repeat it."

the horror wrote:

K5 wrote:

If a 5.75% return over a 7 month period is HUGE, how would you characterize the nearly 5% loss over the past week and one half?

HUGER, and FASTER. :)

Perhaps I should have ended my original post with "/sarc"

K5,

The Dow is now at 15738. That is 4.92% over when you got out at 15,000 - boy are you missing out!!!!! I remember somebody saying that you had missed out on a WHOLE YEAR'S GAINS at some point last fall... I wonder why they haven't updated you this week on your performance, but that's ok... they're probably just busy counting all their monies.

On a related topic - Do you have a prediction on when/if the Fed will reverse course on this taper? I expect it to happen at some point.

the horror wrote:

On a related topic - Do you have a prediction on when/if the Fed will reverse course on this taper? I expect it to happen at some point.

You think the fed will reverse course on the QE taper? As in, you think they will stop decreasing bond purchases, or you think they will increase bond purchases? Why?

Sure. Here is the definition of support and resistance levels.

The charts on this page illustrate support and resistance levels and how they are interpreted as one part of technical analysis of stock prices.

Next, if we look at a current DJIA chart, we'll see that the DOW rallied from a short decline to 15739 (from Nov27 to Dec2) on Dec2, climbing to 16576 by year end.

In chart analysis, this Dec2 low point becomes a support level for future stock market declines. As long as these interim support levels aren't broken by future declines, the longer term trend remains in place, e.g., bullish in this specific case.

When a short term support level is broken, it's a short term bearish signal.

Now, obviously, support and resistance levels aren't an exact science. Nothing is when it comes to the stock market. From a technical analyst's perspective, it just means that there is a greater probability of the market going down to test the next support level than to reverse direction and immediately move up and set new highs. In this case, the next support level is around 15000, or to be specific, the 14803 low set on Oct9.

Of course, this depends on whether the DOW breaks this support level of 15739. A decline to 15000 (or 14803) is insignificant if you're a long term investor, but for traders, a 4.7% (or 5.9% if to 14803) decline is a big deal.

the horror wrote:

K5,

The Dow is now at 15,863. That is 5.75% higher than when you got out at 15,000. That is amazingly HUGE gains - lots of monies that you have missed out on, you silly goon.

If a 5.75% return over a 7 month period is HUGE, how would you characterize the nearly 5% loss over the past week and one half?[/quote]

HUGER, and FASTER. :)

Perhaps I should have ended my original post with "/sarc"[/quote]

K5,

The Dow is now at 15738. That is 4.92% over when you got out at 15,000 - boy are you missing out!!!!! I remember somebody saying that you had missed out on a WHOLE YEAR'S GAINS at some point last fall... I wonder why they haven't updated you this week on your performance, but that's ok... they're probably just busy counting all their monies.

Friday AM 1/31/14: Dow is down over 200 out of the gate. Now at 15,639. That "massive" loss of potential gains of @ 11% everyone was clamoring about not even two weeks ago is now down to a little over 4%.

K5 wrote:

Friday AM 1/31/14: Dow is down over 200 out of the gate. Now at 15,639. That "massive" loss of potential gains of @ 11% everyone was clamoring about not even two weeks ago is now down to a little over 4%.

Oh, K5, there you are. I was wondering where you were yesterday. Thanks for the update.

I'll post an official update after the month ends, but counting from the day he started the thread, as of 10:11 EST, K5's bet is 6.9% in the red, including dividends.

If you want to count from Dow 15,000, then he has missed out on around a 5.5% gain.

that last is including dividends of course

15,000 to 15,639 is an increase of 4.3%.

A little unclear how this translates into both 6.9% and 5.5%.

But then again, I understand basic arithmetic.

dividends make up the difference

K5 wrote:

15,000 to 15,639 is an increase of 4.3%.

A little unclear how this translates into both 6.9% and 5.5%.

But then again, I understand basic arithmetic.

[quote]agip wrote:

dividends make up the difference[quote]K5 wrote:

A number pulled out of thin air when added to 4.3% equals 1.2% but also equals 2.6%?

WTF?

K5 wrote:

[quote]agip wrote:

dividends make up the difference[quote]K5 wrote:

A number pulled out of thin air when added to 4.3% equals 1.2% but also equals 2.6%?

WTF?

Dude, he mentioned two different starting points, beginning of thread and 15,000. Hence 5.5% v 6.9% including dividends. Hence 4.3% v 5.7% without dividends.

C'mon dude, you're smarter than that (unless you're not the real K5. Wouldn't be too surprising if you were that poto guy who has the wonderful habits of both impersonating others and saying really stupid shit).

dumb wrote:

the horror wrote:

On a related topic - Do you have a prediction on when/if the Fed will reverse course on this taper? I expect it to happen at some point.

You think the fed will reverse course on the QE taper? As in, you think they will stop decreasing bond purchases, or you think they will increase bond purchases? Why?

Yes. Stop. Then eventually I expect it to increase... likely under a different name to obfuscate their failure to taper as promised.

Why? Because I think their options are: a) suffer a lot of pain via higher interest rates, lower stock market, bank/derivative failures, and worse economy due to fully tapering, or b) use their QE'ish power to try to hold things together a little longer.

I expect "a" to happen, and then "b" as they are pressured to do something about it.

What are your expectations? A full taper to $0, not need to start another program? Any guess on when they'll accomplish that?

here are the end of January numbers:

From the start of the thread on 8/27:

Dow Jones Industrials: +7.1% including divs

Vanguard Total World Stock Index: +8.2% incl divs

From Dow 15,000:

Dow + around 5.7% incl divs, but that is approximate. 4.7% without the dividends.

So the bears got something back in January, but K5's bet is still substantially in the red.

Market has been volatile and we havn't had a real drop for a long long time. Keep in mind that the average drop in any calendar year is 14%.

agip wrote:

here are the end of January numbers:

From the start of the thread on 8/27:

Dow Jones Industrials: +7.1% including divs

Vanguard Total World Stock Index: +8.2% incl divs

From Dow 15,000:

Dow + around 5.7% incl divs, but that is approximate. 4.7% without the dividends.

So the bears got something back in January, but K5's bet is still substantially in the red.

Market has been volatile and we havn't had a real drop for a long long time. Keep in mind that the average drop in any calendar year is 14%.

Can we all smell Agip's fear?

agip wrote:

I'll post an official update after the month ends, but counting from the day he started the thread, as of 10:11 EST, K5's bet is 6.9% in the red, including dividends.

If you want to count from Dow 15,000, then he has missed out on around a 5.5% gain.

Down 5.5% in January 2014 alone.

agip wrote:

that last is including dividends of course

Right. Because when you are invested in things other than equities, you get no dividends or interest income.

You do realize you are being dishonest by adding estimated dividend income being lost when not in equities but not offsetting it by income from the investments you move into?

Maybe not. Hard to tell where the dishonest meets the just plain dumb with Agip

January ends with a 5.3% drop. Is this the start of a bigger drop? Or will the market react the same way it did the last time we had a similar monthly drop and move up 11-12% over the next few months?