Hurling wrote:
Dead Man Talking wrote:Tsunami of passive investment robots soon to be beached and drowned.
Now that's incomprehensible.
Not really:
http://store.steampowered.com/app/378450/Robot_Tsunami/Hurling wrote:
Dead Man Talking wrote:Tsunami of passive investment robots soon to be beached and drowned.
Now that's incomprehensible.
Not really:
http://store.steampowered.com/app/378450/Robot_Tsunami/mellon wrote:
I like how he's back.
I guess he realized 18,000 may not happen in his lifetime.
Posting under multiple other handles must not count as coming back.
praying that day never comes
Obviously, he's poised to declare, "See I told you years ago there was going to be a 10% drop". The fact that the Dow is at 25,000 or 30,000 doesn't matter. At least I didn't get out too late.
Johnny Hussman wrote:
mellon wrote:Explain to us again how someone moving out of the stock market to cash today, would have been better off following your assessment of the market 3 years ago.
"By the completion of the current cycle, investors will likely relearn how erroneous and irrelevant it was to worry about “selling too early†in an extremely overvalued market. It’s worth remembering now that by the end of the 2000-2002 decline, the entire total return of the S&P 500, in excess of Treasury bills, had been wiped out all the way back to May 1996. By the end of the 2007-2009 collapse, the entire total return of the S&P 500, in excess of Treasury bills, had been wiped out all the way back to June 1995. Likewise, my expectation is that the completion of the current market cycle will wipe out the total returns of the S&P 500, in excess of Treasury bill returns, all the way back to roughly October 1997 (from the standpoint of of the recent bull market advance, that would also erase the entire total return of the S&P 500, in excess of Treasury bill returns, since late-2009). This outcome would not even require the most reliable valuation measures to breach historical norms that they have revisited in virtually every market cycle, even those associated with very low interest rates. See Durable Returns, Transient Returns for a reminder of how all of this works."
--John Hussman, Weekly Commentary 7/31/2017
The usual no answer response!
He had a chance to wallow in humility while waiting for 18,000, but he had to come crawling back. He's a glutton for punishment.
Oh, by the way! Does anyone know how that 10% drop prediction contest is going? I haven't seen anything in awhile.
mellon wrote:
Oh, by the way! Does anyone know how that 10% drop prediction contest is going? I haven't seen anything in awhile.
I believe they are waiting for a 25% drop so Igy comes back.
mellon wrote:
Obviously, he's poised to declare, "See I told you years ago there was going to be a 10% drop". The fact that the Dow is at 25,000 or 30,000 doesn't matter. At least I didn't get out too late.
Nobody is afraid of a 10% drop.
it's those 50% plus drops that are a concern.
And it's coming. Wall Street did not get punished and instead got rewarded with a bail-out for their risky and irresponsible behavior. So they are right back at it. The too big to fail banks are bigger.
The next one may be so bad that even those of us with the foresight to not invest heavily in equities may get crushed.
observer of things wrote:
mellon wrote:Oh, by the way! Does anyone know how that 10% drop prediction contest is going? I haven't seen anything in awhile.
I believe they are waiting for a 25% drop so Igy comes back.
You'll be wishing the drop was only 25%
agree with Husman we will be back to 9,000 in no time
The Uncle wrote:
observer of things wrote:I believe they are waiting for a 25% drop so Igy comes back.
You'll be wishing the drop was only 25%
Nothing wrong with people being concerned and getting out now.
They are not too late.
It's those that got out 3 years ago based on lame commentary, and looking at meaningless graphs that got out way too early. Up to this point, you have been dead wrong!
mellon wrote:
Oh, by the way! Does anyone know how that 10% drop prediction contest is going? I haven't seen anything in awhile.
That's still ongoing, but kind of in a holding pattern since the next deadline for someone to be eliminated isn't until February. I'll bump the contest and update the numbers for the latest Dow record.
Big Dog Investments wrote:
I propose another DGTD prediction contest: PREDICT THE CORRECTION.
Here are the rules:
1) Give the exact date that the Dow will reach 10% below its high.
2) Your prediction must be made before the Dow has fallen 3% from its high.
Closest to the actual date wins with the winner receiving one genuine "attaboy" as prize.
Will it happen before the end of 2016? (Nope) After the inauguration? (Yup) Groundhog Day? (Maser hopes so!)
Let's hear what you think.
Updated to move 'Ghost of 29' to the losers' club.
The clock is now running on Maserati who needs a 10% correction by February 2, 2018 to avoid joining the losers' club.
With the Dow recently establishing another new high, the window of opportunity for NEW participants has reopened. If your name is not already on the list below, feel free to chime in with your prediction. Just make sure it is posted before the Dow falls 3% from its high point.
The prediction pool:
Igy: January 9, 2017 - ELIMINATED
Big: January 13, 2017 - ELIMINATED
Econ: Feb 8, 2017 - ELIMINATED
agip: March 4, 2017 - ELIMINATED
Ghost of 29: May 15, 2017 - ELIMINATED
Maser: June 17, 2017
Mellon: December 31, 2018
Current data (as of 8/1/17):
Dow high...21,990.96
Prediction goal...19,791.86
Cut off number...21331.23 (make your prediction before Dow reaches this)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8b8Nz31jZwmellon wrote:
The Uncle wrote:You'll be wishing the drop was only 25%
Nothing wrong with people being concerned and getting out now.
They are not too late.
It's those that got out 3 years ago based on lame commentary, and looking at meaningless graphs that got out way too early. Up to this point, you have been dead wrong!
LOL. Only Igy would think that getting out on the day the Dow sets yet another record is "too late." No wonder he's bleeding clients. Even his former Muppets can tell he doesn't know what he's doing.
Only a pu$$y like Trew would continually be obsessed with Igy. His man-love hate-lover boy.
mellon wrote:
It's those that got out 3 years ago based on lame commentary, and looking at meaningless graphs that got out way too early. Up to this point, you have been dead wrong!
Here is another meaningless graph just for you. SOL.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hussmanjp/media/grid?idx=0This is exactly the problem with prognosticators like Hussman. He tells us nothing that we don't already know. Everyone knows the market will go down, it's overvalued, what happened in 2007, etc.
But he can't tell us the most important piece of information: WHEN the market will drop.
His commentary is just a lot of hot air.
Go Pats.
Hot air is coming out of your black kettle.
Go Fats!
Since you're one of his disciples, I didn't think you'd have an intelligent response. I was right.
Same refrain, such a poor thought process. You are most likely not smart enough to comprehend Dr. Hussman. Instead dine on the wisdom of those selling your passive index funds. Not Wall Street products. SOL.
Go Fats Waller!