Voice of Reason wrote:
K5 wrote:Also S&P up at the bell so looks like we didn't have too many investors waiting to sell off US equities on emerging currency jitters
It's down now.
The market goes up. The market goes down. Repeat.
And right now it is going down, down, down.
The game is to be out of the market during these big meltdowns.
This is not a big meltdown. At least not yet.
K5 wrote:
Voice of Reason wrote:The market goes up. The market goes down. Repeat.
And right now it is going down, down, down.
The game is to be out of the market during these big meltdowns.
a 3.9% downturn is a 'big meltdown' to you?
then what was the 13% runup from when you started the thread? A gigantic, titanic, monstrous, amazing, thrilling, epoch making rally that will be remembered from now until the end of time?
The next Dow support level is 15,739. Today, as I type this, the DJIA has dipped below 15,800 and is now around 15,820-ish. The momentum is still down and it looks like 15,739 will be broken this week, if not today or tomorrow.
A close below 15,739 would probably signal a drop to just below 15,000. That's what it looks like to me.
fisky wrote:
A close below 15,739 would probably signal a drop to just below 15,000.
... I meant a rather quick decline to less than 15,000, not that the decline would stop at that point. It's not clear to me where the next major support level would be.
agip wrote:
coach d wrote:I think it's fairly easy to predict now that present policies will cause a serious currency crisis in a major currency
really? That's a massive prediction. Feel free to back away from it, but until you do, I'll put it in my calendar for 12/31/14 to see if a major currency crashes this year.
Could happen, but there hasn't been a serious crisis in a major currency for a long, long time. There is probably a reason for that - some form of stability that the market has found.
Seems to be a habit of agip assigning deadlines to people's predictions... and the end of the current calendar year has some magical quality in his mind.
just tuckered out wrote:
K5 wrote:The market goes up. The market goes down. Repeat.
And right now it is going down, down, down.
The game is to be out of the market during these big meltdowns.
a 3.9% downturn is a 'big meltdown' to you?
I did not say this is a big meltdown. One is coming at some point -- that we know. The question is when?
Why are you guys so dumb? Can't even read
coach d wrote:
What's shocking is how little of an action from the FED it took to cause currency crises in minor currencies around the world. What happens when they get serious? I also find it almost impossible that the FED would actually be able to maintain a taper at the same time the ECB is having to fight DEFLATION. In 1987, the opposing monetary policies between the FED and the Bundesbank (but in the opposite direction) was the primary cause of the 1987 crash.
I think it's fairly easy to predict now that present policies will cause a serious currency crisis in a major currency, which will cause the FED and ECB to throw even more money out there, which causes both equities and gold to go up significantly until EVERYTHING becomes horribly overvalued and everyone heads for the exits at once. And that's how the 2000 top occurred.
I don't think I'd want to be Janet Yellen right now.
The Fed has already sown the seeds of the next crisis and is still fighting deflationary/disinflationary forces. The market looks like it wants to go lower over the next few to several weeks, even as we should get a dead cat bounce here soon. I wouldn't be surprised to see Yellen, the ultimate dove, back away from the already committed-to peeling off of $10 billion per month, but I do not believe that would send a good message to the markets. I don't think traditional analysis works here. If Europe cracks, capital flight could come into the US markets. More than a garden variety (5-8%) correction wouldn't surprise me over the next several weeks though. Jack be nimble, Jack be quick.
K5 wrote:
Voice of Reason wrote:The market goes up. The market goes down. Repeat.
And right now it is going down, down, down.
The game is to be out of the market during these big meltdowns.
looks to me like you called this a big meltdown.
just tuckered out wrote:
K5 wrote:And right now it is going down, down, down.
The game is to be out of the market during these big meltdowns.
looks to me like you called this a big meltdown.
Which is why it is clear that you cannot read.
K5 wrote:
just tuckered out wrote:looks to me like you called this a big meltdown.
Which is why it is clear that you cannot read.
I think you are having a meltdown - it says right there. you said it. WTF.
K5 wrote:
Which is why it is clear that you cannot read.
Would it be fair to say he is illiterate?
K5 wrote:
agip wrote:really? That's a massive prediction. Feel free to back away from it, but until you do, I'll put it in my calendar for 12/31/14 to see if a major currency crashes this year.
Could happen, but there hasn't been a serious crisis in a major currency for a long, long time. There is probably a reason for that - some form of stability that the market has found.
Seems to be a habit of agip assigning deadlines to people's predictions... and the end of the current calendar year has some magical quality in his mind.
He wants to put a date in his calendar. The end of the year seems appropriate since that's a common time for taking stock of financial ups and downs. It's not magic; it's tradition.
K5,
The Dow is now at 15,863. That is 5.75% higher than when you got out at 15,000. That is amazingly HUGE gains - lots of monies that you have missed out on, you silly goon.
Just wanted to check in and post a daily/weekly/hourly update since it seems that agip's have slowed down lately for some inexplicable reason.
loops--
That makes sense to me only insofar as one would invest in stocks within any particular sector, of directly competing companies. Also, the sector (or product) must be a basic one, not one that is subject to significant change resulting in disruption--certain commodities like energy and minerals, and things like chemicals that produce inputs/feedstock.
But that doesn't talk about the aggregate "market". A fully diversified portfolio would, I guess, on a larger scale, mimic the competitive requirement within any particular sector--as long as it evolved, fairly rapidly, to include emerging sectors.
The thing is, though, that a company splits the ROI between dividends, and re-investment. Yes, the total ROI may logically be expected to beat the rate of inflation if good business practices are followed, but I don't see how the particular ROI either for the company or for the investor should be expected to achieve this level.
Sorry, the company splits ROI between dividends, re-investment, and profit-sharing, if any.
[quote]the horror wrote:
K5,
The Dow is now at 15,863. That is 5.75% higher than when you got out at 15,000. That is amazingly HUGE gains - lots of monies that you have missed out on, you silly goon.
If a 5.75% return over a 7 month period is HUGE, how would you characterize the nearly 5% loss over the past week and one half?
dumb wrote:
K5 wrote:Which is why it is clear that you cannot read.
Would it be fair to say he is illiterate?
The typically syntax challenged Letsrun poster would probably question his "reading comprehension skills", which seems to have replaced "Econ 101" as the go to phrase for those who cannot clearly express a simple point.
K5 wrote:
dumb wrote:Would it be fair to say he is illiterate?
The typically syntax challenged Letsrun poster would probably question his "reading comprehension skills", which seems to have replaced "Econ 101" as the go to phrase for those who cannot clearly express a simple point.
Your point?
Major indices are all up today. Hopefully this will be a better week than last.