HEPS Cross Country 2012

Looks like Kelsey Karys (Cornell) is back from injury. Geez, this essentially locks Cornell for the women's team title! She ran an 18:48 for 5K on Saturday, being the 1st Cornell finisher at the John Reif Memorial run. The top runners rested (d'uh). But I feel she will definitely be a top 7 scorer for the Big Red on Saturday.

http://cornellbigred.com/documents/2012/10/19/Reif_Results.pdf?id=4969

Speaking of Saturday, the weather looks to be GORGEOUS in Princeton! Sunny and high of 72 the last I checked. The course could be a little soft as there is a chance of some showers on Wednesday (30% chance in the AM), but it will definiitely NOT be a repeat of the Halloween Nor'easter that was last year.

5 Day forecast for Princeton:

http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/Princeton+NJ+USNJ0427:1:US

rumor in Harlem is that the Lions will be without two of their top five from Wisco fifth place finish. one out with knee issues and the other with mono. they are deep, but not that deep. Princton FTW!

[Weather forecast deteriorating: some rain in Princeton in the middle of the week, chance of rain on Saturday. On the brighter side, sleet and snow appear unlikely.]

SO--the big week! What are your thoughts? Beyond the teams/people who you think can win, what/whom should we be paying attention to?

The Columbia/Princeton "dual" meet on Princeton's home course should be a doozy. Dartmouth seems to be most folks' pick for the third podium spot, but Harvard certainly has the talent to contend and should have one or two very low sticks. The Cornell men are a mystery: I could see them anywhere from third to sixth.

The Cornell women's front four has been solid for a month; assuming someone runs a decent fifth, it's hard to see the Big Red losing this one, though I personally think it will closer than a lot of people seem to project. But my real question is: Who will fill out the rest of the podium spots? The league is so deep on the women's side...it also wouldn't surprise me to see women from six or seven squads filling the two all-Ivy teams (that's the top 14, right?).

I may not get there myself, but best of luck to all the teams--and spectators, keep us posted!

ivyguy wrote:

[Weather forecast deteriorating: some rain in Princeton in the middle of the week, chance of rain on Saturday. On the brighter side, sleet and snow appear unlikely.]

Ok, saw updated forecast for Saturday: high 68, partly cloudy, 20% chance of precipitation, wind ESE at 5mph.

Sounds almost ideal for a XC meet.

And where did you hear this rumor of Columbia being down two runners?

so anyone know if Abbey D is running this weekend?

For the sake of amusement, as he might say, here are the virtual scores of Heps *returnees* that "kibitzer" posted back in the summer:

MEN:

1. Princeton 34 (1 4 6 9 14 / 25 35)

2. Columbia 36 (2 3 8 11 12 / 15 23)

3. Cornell 88 (5 18 19 22 24 / 33 43)

4. Dartmouth 118 (10 13 16 37 42 / 47)

5. Yale 132 (7 21 28 31 45 / 48)

6. Brown 144 (17 27 29 30 41)

7. Harvard 150 (20 26 32 34 38 / 44)

8. Penn 210 (36 39 40 46 49)

WOMEN:

1. Columbia 44 (2 5 8 14 15 / 26 29)

2. Cornell 48 (3 4 10 11 20 / 23 25)

3. Yale 91 (6 7 16 30 32 /36 39)

4. Princeton 102 (13 18 19 24 28 / 31 37)

5. Dartmouth 131 (1 17 33 35 45)

6. Brown 146 (9 12 38 40 47 / 49)

7. Harvard 167 (21 27 34 41 44 / 46)

8. Penn 205 (22 42 43 48 50)

It seems like most people's predictions for this weekend vary a good bit from the above. At a bare minimum, two seventh places for Harvard seem unlikely!

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Interesting point about Karys, C/M. As someone pointed out earlier, though Cornell generally runs only its JV women at the Reif meet, this year it looks like they only held out their top 10 or 11, so the Reif race may have settled another Heps entrant or two--plus I know they like to have their captains run at Heps, and I believe Karys is one of those.

Beyond a doubt, Karys is the fastest-improving woman on that Big Red squad; I dunno about cracking the top seven, but she certainly has the talent.

[Sort of random here, but I'm remembering the Heps 10k from last spring, where Cornell went 1-3, and imagining what the race might have been like if Karys had been back to defend her title...]

[quote]BRF wrote:

For the sake of amusement, as he might say, here are the virtual scores of Heps *returnees* that "kibitzer" posted back in the summer:

MEN:

1. Princeton 34 (1 4 6 9 14 / 25 35)

2. Columbia 36 (2 3 8 11 12 / 15 23)

3. Cornell 88 (5 18 19 22 24 / 33 43)

4. Dartmouth 118 (10 13 16 37 42 / 47)

5. Yale 132 (7 21 28 31 45 / 48)

6. Brown 144 (17 27 29 30 41)

7. Harvard 150 (20 26 32 34 38 / 44)

8. Penn 210 (36 39 40 46 49)

WOMEN:

1. Columbia 44 (2 5 8 14 15 / 26 29)

2. Cornell 48 (3 4 10 11 20 / 23 25)

3. Yale 91 (6 7 16 30 32 /36 39)

4. Princeton 102 (13 18 19 24 28 / 31 37)

5. Dartmouth 131 (1 17 33 35 45)

6. Brown 146 (9 12 38 40 47 / 49)

7. Harvard 167 (21 27 34 41 44 / 46)

8. Penn 205 (22 42 43 48 50)

It seems like most people's predictions for this weekend vary a good bit from the above. At a bare minimum, two seventh places for Harvard seem unlikely!

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

My Initial mid-season predictions for HEPS Women along with their respective finish at Wisconsin and comments/questions.

1. Cornell(5) Moving into a lock for HEPS title

2. Columbia(36) Neer out for season - yikes!

3. Yale(13) In line with expectations, solid run

4. Dartmouth(44) Ran without Abby D - will she be back?

5. Princeton(25) May get podium? Now Harvard is their problem

6. Harvard (23) In the thick of the solid, but still 2nd, tier

7. Brown (26) As for Harvard and Princeton

8. Penn - Ran at Lafayette - won easily. No competition.

Final Predictions - Women:

1. Cornell

2. Yale

3. Columbia

4. Dartmouth

5. Princeton

6. Harvard

7. Brown

8. Penn

agip wrote:

so anyone know if Abbey D is running this weekend?

If this email/forum post is to be believed, then I think Abbey will be there and Rutledge is hopefully back to 100%:

From the Dartmouth e-mail newsletter to alumni:

Before we left on the trip, Abbey D'Agostino came down with what we hoped was a minor injury to a hip adductor. It got better slowly but Coach Mark Coogan decided that having her race was risky at this point of the season so she never got on the line. (She is much better now.) Our top freshman woman, Christie Rutledge, then came up with what we thought was some minor tightness in her groin. After trying to jog the course the day before the race the pain intensified and she was a no go as well.

Read more:

C/M Runner wrote:

Our top freshman woman, Christie Rutledge, then came up with what we thought was some minor tightness in her groin. After trying to jog the course the day before the race the pain intensified and she was a no go as well.

Ow. That kind of situation can be pretty bad. (Experience speaks.) I wish her the best.

I'm sure they err on the side of understatement in those newsletters. Just saying it could have been a "minor injury" but she also could still be out. Guess we'll find out this weekend.

BRF wrote:

C/M Runner wrote:

Our top freshman woman, Christie Rutledge, then came up with what we thought was some minor tightness in her groin. After trying to jog the course the day before the race the pain intensified and she was a no go as well.

Ow. That kind of situation can be pretty bad. (Experience speaks.) I wish her the best.

Had that one the week before Heps, but I was able to recover in time for it (then again, I only had to cover 60 meters, not 6km).

Still, I hope everyone is able to bring their A game so we can really see how the conference stacks up.

Is anyone on here going? I'm planning to go.

I'm a definite "maybe." Health, family, job can get in the way. (And if there's bad weather forecast, forget it!)

But I'll hope to be there and see the Good Guys (aka Cornell) defend their women's title and surprise other teams in the men's race.

Cornell women are undoubtedly the favorite but could they be beatable? The Yale women have been solid. When Harvard has a good day they are a strong force. And I wouldn't necessarily discount Columbia or even Brown with their solid top 3. And for Dartmouth as long as Abbey and Christie are in...they're solid too.

XCTF wrote:

Cornell women are undoubtedly the favorite but could they be beatable? The Yale women have been solid. When Harvard has a good day they are a strong force. And I wouldn't necessarily discount Columbia or even Brown with their solid top 3. And for Dartmouth as long as Abbey and Christie are in...they're solid too.

I'm with you. The Yale women, in particular, have been progressing beautifully. I certainly don't see this race as a walkover for the Cornell women. It really could (as last year) come down to the fifth runners.

Ivy women is the race of the day. But I wonder... With Abby [presumably] coming back from injury does she go all out or does she take it easy so as to be in peak form in a couple of weeks. For Artie Smith, do you have the women bite the bridle a bit so as to be in top form for the NCAA NE Regional. They (and Yale) have a legit shot at qualifying for Nationals as a team. Not trolling, just figuring these must be issues under consideration.

Those are good questions.

The question is for Yale is what is the higher priority, as the Yale Media report back in August of how the team had goals of winning Heps, getting recognized on the national scene, and qualifying for NCAAs.

http://yalebulldogs.com/sports/w-xc/2012-13/releases/20120830933fym

As for Abbey, she does not need to go all out, but she needs to run it smart if she wants to hold onto her individual title as she has been passed before at the line due to her not paying attention to the people around her (Indoor Heps last year, got passed by Brown's Heidi Caldwell at the end of the 5K)

In the meantime, I figure the men's race would be more exciting due to the Princeton-Columbia duel.

C/M Runner wrote:

In the meantime, I figure the men's race would be more exciting due to the Princeton-Columbia duel.

I agree. Two great competitions in the men's race: for first and for third. I expect it to be *extremely* intense: for several teams, fourth and fifth (maybe even sixth and seventh) runners are going to be crucial.

I just realized this today:

Harvard's top two guys are Maksim Korolev and James Leakos. Korolev was the top Ivy League finisher at Wisconsin this year, edging out Columbia's Mike Murphy by 3 seconds and Princeton's Alejandro Arroyo Yamin by 8 seconds. Meanwhile, Leakos had a stunning performance in 2011 at the Paul Short where he finished 5th in the gold race, behind winner UNC-Greensboro Paul Chelimo and three Oklahoma guys (the Oklahoma guys edged out Leakos by 1 to 2 seconds, depending on the guy). Leakos was considered to be a NCAA contender before overtraining injuries sidelined him for the rest of the season (I believe he was a DNF last year at Heps). But still, Leakos has been doing well this year and is only a few seconds behind Korolev. I think these two are darkhorses for individual podium spots and First-Team All-Ivy.

Men's Top 5 Predictions:

-Arroyo Yamin (P)

-Korolev (H)

-Murphy (C)

-Bensten (P)

-Forward (C)