Good post: You might very well be right in everything you are writing here, but we just have to wait and see. But in the meantime here’s my speculations:
1. I think the mile WR could have been possible for Jakob in both 2023 and 2024.
2. IMO the 1500m WR demands some fitness improvement to be beaten.
3. We don’t know enough about Jakob’s 5000m time trail capacity. A) Some (including himself) think he is at least as good here as in the 3000m, and then the WR will go down hugely of course. But I can only find one indication for this narrative: His high volume training. But basing a reasoning on that fact alone would be like claiming Snell and Walker as stellar in the 5000m as well, because of their high mileage training… Winning the event a lot in champs is neither a solid argument, if one cannot document that one’s competitors were in WR shape in these races.
B) Comparison with other athletes range profile: Komen seems to be a good candidate. -He too ran sub 3.30, and a stellar 3000m, and also narrowly beat the 5000m WR. So maybe Jakob too then could copy that in the latter event… But we have to try to evaluate the fact that the Norwegian seems significantly better in the 1500m than the Kenyan, so maybe Kipyegon is a better comparison: Very good in the 1500m, but maybe even better in the 3000m if she contests it more frequently, and then a little worse in the 5000m (gets beaten by Chebet, despite having the upper hand in the shorter events). So if that comparison is correct Jakob won’t get the 5000m record…
C) Maybe both Kipyegon and Jakob can improve in the 5000m by a longer event focus, so I won’t conclude here…
4. I have to add a view on the longer events here: Both Jakob and Kipyegon have talked about a career in the longer events, and both even now do huge mileage. So what is the likelihood of good times? -Well, I have to focus on Jakob, and in my view he hasn’t yet shown any promises in the 10k and above, (it’s easy to say on the contrary): He has won a lot of European xc champs that don’t say much about all out 10k capacity, and he has won a local 10k roads, and he lost hugely in the 7.8k U20 xc and the infamous Copenhagen HM…. So my conclusion is: No way he is a world beater in the 10k and above based on his usual fitness and training. But that doesn’t mean things can’t change with another focus, even without leaving the double threshold philosophy. -A shift to what Almgren is doing and prioritising might change a lot, but what do I know. It still feels too good to be true that a guy with such a strong 3000m PB also could be likely good or even better in the longer distances… But exciting it will be if Jakob keeps on with his project!
5. The last sentence in the last paragraph leads me to the crucial point: Jakob and injuries/psychological stress.
For a long time there was a myth that Jakob was very seldom injured, and he himself stressed how important it was to stay healthy, and how double threshold was the better training program to achieve this. And his brother Henrik often said that Jakob avoided the injuries he and Filip got, and that that made a huge difference. But we now know that also Jakob has had his fair share of injuries (and sickness) up throughout the years.
Last year Jakob stressed that he couldn’t afford an injury one more time like the Achilles one in his left foot. And bang: he got an even worse injury in his right (and pictures from Japan show than he puts his left foot in ice water, maybe indicating reoccurrence in that leg as well.) And in his last interview (after the tonsils operation) he is excited to see how his Achilles will act, so the problems may very well linger on without even a pause… So yes, big red flag here.
Zero chance of coming back in peak shape (meaning better than ever)? Well, we don’t know that. But surely Jakob has to change something -Henrik (brother and agent) thinks the stress around the family conflict/court trial gave the injury problems, whereas Filip (brother and coach) point to the indoor season as possible cause. So maybe adjustments in one or both points here can solve the problem, and even allow Jakob to train even harder..?
I have no idea if Jakob will make it. But if he does, after all these problems, boy, he will be even bigger in my eyes..!