Prior to his injuries I would have said he might have had a chance over the mile. The 1500 was probably too short and the 5k not in his wheelhouse at sub 12:35. His best distances are from 2k-2mile.
With the injuries he is now incurring I would say his chances of breaking these three very tough records is about zero. It's just brave talk, designed to shore up his damaged reputation after the dismal showing at the world's.
About zero - for a 25 years old guy whose 1500m PB is worth around the same than the Mile WR.
Laughable.
An athlete who incurs repeating injuries who failed to qualify this year in his main event at the world's and finished 10th in the other. There is no assurance he will get anywhere near his previous best yet alone take the best md and distance records left in the books.
I wonder why Elliott, Snell Ryun, Walker, Ovett, Coe, Cram, Morcelli and El G - and now Ingebrigtsen - all rated the mile record as one of the biggest and most desirable in the sport? It is obviously a minor low-status event since it isn't a championship distance today. Jakob should be told not to bother.
It's Morceli.
Where has Ingebrigtsen rated the mile record as one of the biggest and most desirable in the sport?
He want's to have all the WRs starting with 1500m (up to the Half Marathon?). I'm not sure if he still thinks it's possible (for me it's unrealistic). But a Mile is a distance were WRs are kept and it is longer than 1500m (now that you can use google you maybe can check it for yourself - give it a try).
For most of the 20th century the mile record was the most prestigious in the sport. But you would have had to have lived then to know that. Babies here don't.
Remind me again of how he fared in the HM, the event that he said is his "best distance".
For most of the 20th century the mile record was the most prestigious in the sport. But you would have had to have lived then to know that. Babies here don't.
You are so desperate to stay relevant in old age. I feel sorry for you and your family. Really.
For most of the 20th century the mile record was the most prestigious in the sport. But you would have had to have lived then to know that. Babies here don't.
You are so desperate to stay relevant in old age. I feel sorry for you and your family. Really.
Insult away. That's all you have left.
I wonder why you think I could care less what you have to say. But you have nothing to say that refutes what I said about the standing of the mile. As usual.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Prior to his injuries I would have said he might have had a chance over the mile. The 1500 was probably too short and the 5k not in his wheelhouse at sub 12:35. His best distances are from 2k-2mile.
With the injuries he is now incurring I would say his chances of breaking these three very tough records is about zero. It's just brave talk, designed to shore up his damaged reputation after the dismal showing at the world's.
Good post: You might very well be right in everything you are writing here, but we just have to wait and see. But in the meantime here’s my speculations:
1. I think the mile WR could have been possible for Jakob in both 2023 and 2024.
2. IMO the 1500m WR demands some fitness improvement to be beaten.
3. We don’t know enough about Jakob’s 5000m time trail capacity. A) Some (including himself) think he is at least as good here as in the 3000m, and then the WR will go down hugely of course. But I can only find one indication for this narrative: His high volume training. But basing a reasoning on that fact alone would be like claiming Snell and Walker as stellar in the 5000m as well, because of their high mileage training… Winning the event a lot in champs is neither a solid argument, if one cannot document that one’s competitors were in WR shape in these races.
B) Comparison with other athletes range profile: Komen seems to be a good candidate. -He too ran sub 3.30, and a stellar 3000m, and also narrowly beat the 5000m WR. So maybe Jakob too then could copy that in the latter event… But we have to try to evaluate the fact that the Norwegian seems significantly better in the 1500m than the Kenyan, so maybe Kipyegon is a better comparison: Very good in the 1500m, but maybe even better in the 3000m if she contests it more frequently, and then a little worse in the 5000m (gets beaten by Chebet, despite having the upper hand in the shorter events). So if that comparison is correct Jakob won’t get the 5000m record…
C) Maybe both Kipyegon and Jakob can improve in the 5000m by a longer event focus, so I won’t conclude here…
4. I have to add a view on the longer events here: Both Jakob and Kipyegon have talked about a career in the longer events, and both even now do huge mileage. So what is the likelihood of good times? -Well, I have to focus on Jakob, and in my view he hasn’t yet shown any promises in the 10k and above, (it’s easy to say on the contrary): He has won a lot of European xc champs that don’t say much about all out 10k capacity, and he has won a local 10k roads, and he lost hugely in the 7.8k U20 xc and the infamous Copenhagen HM…. So my conclusion is: No way he is a world beater in the 10k and above based on his usual fitness and training. But that doesn’t mean things can’t change with another focus, even without leaving the double threshold philosophy. -A shift to what Almgren is doing and prioritising might change a lot, but what do I know. It still feels too good to be true that a guy with such a strong 3000m PB also could be likely good or even better in the longer distances… But exciting it will be if Jakob keeps on with his project!
5. The last sentence in the last paragraph leads me to the crucial point: Jakob and injuries/psychological stress.
For a long time there was a myth that Jakob was very seldom injured, and he himself stressed how important it was to stay healthy, and how double threshold was the better training program to achieve this. And his brother Henrik often said that Jakob avoided the injuries he and Filip got, and that that made a huge difference. But we now know that also Jakob has had his fair share of injuries (and sickness) up throughout the years.
Last year Jakob stressed that he couldn’t afford an injury one more time like the Achilles one in his left foot. And bang: he got an even worse injury in his right (and pictures from Japan show than he puts his left foot in ice water, maybe indicating reoccurrence in that leg as well.) And in his last interview (after the tonsils operation) he is excited to see how his Achilles will act, so the problems may very well linger on without even a pause… So yes, big red flag here.
Zero chance of coming back in peak shape (meaning better than ever)? Well, we don’t know that. But surely Jakob has to change something -Henrik (brother and agent) thinks the stress around the family conflict/court trial gave the injury problems, whereas Filip (brother and coach) point to the indoor season as possible cause. So maybe adjustments in one or both points here can solve the problem, and even allow Jakob to train even harder..?
I have no idea if Jakob will make it. But if he does, after all these problems, boy, he will be even bigger in my eyes..!
This post was edited 11 minutes after it was posted.
3:26.00, 7:17.55 and 12:35.36 are really very close to each other.
He definitely is better over 3000m than over 1500m. We have to wait for the 5000m.
7:17.55 is relatively MUCH stronger than 3:26.00 and 12:35.36.
His 2000m WR is also stronger than both the 1500m WR and the 5000m WR BUT far from as strong as his 3000m WR.
If we’re using the WA scoring tables, his strongest world record is the 3:45.14 indoor mile, which is allegedly worth 1330 points or a 7:16.03 3000m.
I don’t know if I really believe that, indoor distance times have gotten a lot better very quickly, but it’s there.
Jakob did 1500m time trials at Silesia in 2023 and Monaco in 2024 in the midst of the seasons where he set the other world records. So it stands to reason that he would need to be fitter than he was in those seasons from a 1500 perspective.
3:26.00, 7:17.55 and 12:35.36 are really very close to each other.
He definitely is better over 3000m than over 1500m. We have to wait for the 5000m.
7:17.55 is relatively MUCH stronger than 3:26.00 and 12:35.36.
His 2000m WR is also stronger than both the 1500m WR and the 5000m WR BUT far from as strong as his 3000m WR.
I question this strongly.
In a single attempt at 3000m, in not perfect conditions while not pacrd perfectly he did the equivalent of close to 3:25? What could he have done with better conditions and perfect pacing? The equivalent of clode to 3:24?
When Komen has run 7:20.67, the 5000m mark was 12:44.39. Both marks were close to each other, absolutely astonishing back then. The 5000m mark has improved by 9 seconds since, the 3000m mark by 3 seconds.
He never runs the 800m. His top times over 1500m and one mile are superior to those he has run over 5k (to be fair, he has limited his 5k running to championships the past few years).
Do you really question that he is much better over 5000m than over 800m? Please rethink your argumentation here.
Seeing as how he does not train for and does not race the 800k, I would guess not but have no data.
Prior to his injuries I would have said he might have had a chance over the mile. The 1500 was probably too short and the 5k not in his wheelhouse at sub 12:35. His best distances are from 2k-2mile.
With the injuries he is now incurring I would say his chances of breaking these three very tough records is about zero. It's just brave talk, designed to shore up his damaged reputation after the dismal showing at the world's.
Good post: You might very well be right in everything you are writing here, but we just have to wait and see. But in the meantime here’s my speculations:
1. I think the mile WR could have been possible for Jakob in both 2023 and 2024.
2. IMO the 1500m WR demands some fitness improvement to be beaten.
3. We don’t know enough about Jakob’s 5000m time trail capacity. A) Some (including himself) think he is at least as good here as in the 3000m, and then the WR will go down hugely of course. But I can only find one indication for this narrative: His high volume training. But basing a reasoning on that fact alone would be like claiming Snell and Walker as stellar in the 5000m as well, because of their high mileage training… Winning the event a lot in champs is neither a solid argument, if one cannot document that one’s competitors were in WR shape in these races.
B) Comparison with other athletes range profile: Komen seems to be a good candidate. -He too ran sub 3.30, and a stellar 3000m, and also narrowly beat the 5000m WR. So maybe Jakob too then could copy that in the latter event… But we have to try to evaluate the fact that the Norwegian seems significantly better in the 1500m than the Kenyan, so maybe Kipyegon is a better comparison: Very good in the 1500m, but maybe even better in the 3000m if she contests it more frequently, and then a little worse in the 5000m (gets beaten by Chebet, despite having the upper hand in the shorter events). So if that comparison is correct Jakob won’t get the 5000m record…
C) Maybe both Kipyegon and Jakob can improve in the 5000m by a longer event focus, so I won’t conclude here…
4. I have to add a view on the longer events here: Both Jakob and Kipyegon have talked about a career in the longer events, and both even now do huge mileage. So what is the likelihood of good times? -Well, I have to focus on Jakob, and in my view he hasn’t yet shown any promises in the 10k and above, (it’s easy to say on the contrary): He has won a lot of European xc champs that don’t say much about all out 10k capacity, and he has won a local 10k roads, and he lost hugely in the 7.8k U20 xc and the infamous Copenhagen HM…. So my conclusion is: No way he is a world beater in the 10k and above based on his usual fitness and training. But that doesn’t mean things can’t change with another focus, even without leaving the double threshold philosophy. -A shift to what Almgren is doing and prioritising might change a lot, but what do I know. It still feels too good to be true that a guy with such a strong 3000m PB also could be likely good or even better in the longer distances… But exciting it will be if Jakob keeps on with his project!
5. The last sentence in the last paragraph leads me to the crucial point: Jakob and injuries/psychological stress.
For a long time there was a myth that Jakob was very seldom injured, and he himself stressed how important it was to stay healthy, and how double threshold was the better training program to achieve this. And his brother Henrik often said that Jakob avoided the injuries he and Filip got, and that that made a huge difference. But we now know that also Jakob has had his fair share of injuries (and sickness) up throughout the years.
Last year Jakob stressed that he couldn’t afford an injury one more time like the Achilles one in his left foot. And bang: he got an even worse injury in his right (and pictures from Japan show than he puts his left foot in ice water, maybe indicating reoccurrence in that leg as well.) And in his last interview (after the tonsils operation) he is excited to see how his Achilles will act, so the problems may very well linger on without even a pause… So yes, big red flag here.
Zero chance of coming back in peak shape (meaning better than ever)? Well, we don’t know that. But surely Jakob has to change something -Henrik (brother and agent) thinks the stress around the family conflict/court trial gave the injury problems, whereas Filip (brother and coach) point to the indoor season as possible cause. So maybe adjustments in one or both points here can solve the problem, and even allow Jakob to train even harder..?
I have no idea if Jakob will make it. But if he does, after all these problems, boy, he will be even bigger in my eyes..!
According to the post you have replied to, his chances for breaking those records are ABOUT ZERO. Do you even understand this? It's complete nonsense. If he can reach his best form again for sure he has some chance to break those records. Will he be back at his best? We can't know.
But his chance is NOT ABOUT ZERO.
Armstronglivs hardly ever has done A GOOD POST to those subjects.
Trainings cant do everything, just look at the examples of Coe, Cram, Wightman, Hocker, Hobbs Kessler (supposed PRO), the French runner of the 800m, Howey ...
They all crack at some point because the body is not naturally adapted.
Prior to his injuries I would have said he might have had a chance over the mile. The 1500 was probably too short and the 5k not in his wheelhouse at sub 12:35. His best distances are from 2k-2mile.
With the injuries he is now incurring I would say his chances of breaking these three very tough records is about zero. It's just brave talk, designed to shore up his damaged reputation after the dismal showing at the world's.
Good post: You might very well be right in everything you are writing here, but we just have to wait and see. But in the meantime here’s my speculations:
1. I think the mile WR could have been possible for Jakob in both 2023 and 2024.
2. IMO the 1500m WR demands some fitness improvement to be beaten.
3. We don’t know enough about Jakob’s 5000m time trail capacity. A) Some (including himself) think he is at least as good here as in the 3000m, and then the WR will go down hugely of course. But I can only find one indication for this narrative: His high volume training. But basing a reasoning on that fact alone would be like claiming Snell and Walker as stellar in the 5000m as well, because of their high mileage training… Winning the event a lot in champs is neither a solid argument, if one cannot document that one’s competitors were in WR shape in these races.
B) Comparison with other athletes range profile: Komen seems to be a good candidate. -He too ran sub 3.30, and a stellar 3000m, and also narrowly beat the 5000m WR. So maybe Jakob too then could copy that in the latter event… But we have to try to evaluate the fact that the Norwegian seems significantly better in the 1500m than the Kenyan, so maybe Kipyegon is a better comparison: Very good in the 1500m, but maybe even better in the 3000m if she contests it more frequently, and then a little worse in the 5000m (gets beaten by Chebet, despite having the upper hand in the shorter events). So if that comparison is correct Jakob won’t get the 5000m record…
C) Maybe both Kipyegon and Jakob can improve in the 5000m by a longer event focus, so I won’t conclude here…
4. I have to add a view on the longer events here: Both Jakob and Kipyegon have talked about a career in the longer events, and both even now do huge mileage. So what is the likelihood of good times? -Well, I have to focus on Jakob, and in my view he hasn’t yet shown any promises in the 10k and above, (it’s easy to say on the contrary): He has won a lot of European xc champs that don’t say much about all out 10k capacity, and he has won a local 10k roads, and he lost hugely in the 7.8k U20 xc and the infamous Copenhagen HM…. So my conclusion is: No way he is a world beater in the 10k and above based on his usual fitness and training. But that doesn’t mean things can’t change with another focus, even without leaving the double threshold philosophy. -A shift to what Almgren is doing and prioritising might change a lot, but what do I know. It still feels too good to be true that a guy with such a strong 3000m PB also could be likely good or even better in the longer distances… But exciting it will be if Jakob keeps on with his project!
5. The last sentence in the last paragraph leads me to the crucial point: Jakob and injuries/psychological stress.
For a long time there was a myth that Jakob was very seldom injured, and he himself stressed how important it was to stay healthy, and how double threshold was the better training program to achieve this. And his brother Henrik often said that Jakob avoided the injuries he and Filip got, and that that made a huge difference. But we now know that also Jakob has had his fair share of injuries (and sickness) up throughout the years.
Last year Jakob stressed that he couldn’t afford an injury one more time like the Achilles one in his left foot. And bang: he got an even worse injury in his right (and pictures from Japan show than he puts his left foot in ice water, maybe indicating reoccurrence in that leg as well.) And in his last interview (after the tonsils operation) he is excited to see how his Achilles will act, so the problems may very well linger on without even a pause… So yes, big red flag here.
Zero chance of coming back in peak shape (meaning better than ever)? Well, we don’t know that. But surely Jakob has to change something -Henrik (brother and agent) thinks the stress around the family conflict/court trial gave the injury problems, whereas Filip (brother and coach) point to the indoor season as possible cause. So maybe adjustments in one or both points here can solve the problem, and even allow Jakob to train even harder..?
I have no idea if Jakob will make it. But if he does, after all these problems, boy, he will be even bigger in my eyes..!
I won't discount anything you say; it is well informed and well reasoned. Where we differ is that I think Jacob's propensity now for injury will be extremely difficult to overcome. It is a change here to have a civil exchange.
Good post: You might very well be right in everything you are writing here, but we just have to wait and see. But in the meantime here’s my speculations:
1. I think the mile WR could have been possible for Jakob in both 2023 and 2024.
2. IMO the 1500m WR demands some fitness improvement to be beaten.
3. We don’t know enough about Jakob’s 5000m time trail capacity. A) Some (including himself) think he is at least as good here as in the 3000m, and then the WR will go down hugely of course. But I can only find one indication for this narrative: His high volume training. But basing a reasoning on that fact alone would be like claiming Snell and Walker as stellar in the 5000m as well, because of their high mileage training… Winning the event a lot in champs is neither a solid argument, if one cannot document that one’s competitors were in WR shape in these races.
B) Comparison with other athletes range profile: Komen seems to be a good candidate. -He too ran sub 3.30, and a stellar 3000m, and also narrowly beat the 5000m WR. So maybe Jakob too then could copy that in the latter event… But we have to try to evaluate the fact that the Norwegian seems significantly better in the 1500m than the Kenyan, so maybe Kipyegon is a better comparison: Very good in the 1500m, but maybe even better in the 3000m if she contests it more frequently, and then a little worse in the 5000m (gets beaten by Chebet, despite having the upper hand in the shorter events). So if that comparison is correct Jakob won’t get the 5000m record…
C) Maybe both Kipyegon and Jakob can improve in the 5000m by a longer event focus, so I won’t conclude here…
4. I have to add a view on the longer events here: Both Jakob and Kipyegon have talked about a career in the longer events, and both even now do huge mileage. So what is the likelihood of good times? -Well, I have to focus on Jakob, and in my view he hasn’t yet shown any promises in the 10k and above, (it’s easy to say on the contrary): He has won a lot of European xc champs that don’t say much about all out 10k capacity, and he has won a local 10k roads, and he lost hugely in the 7.8k U20 xc and the infamous Copenhagen HM…. So my conclusion is: No way he is a world beater in the 10k and above based on his usual fitness and training. But that doesn’t mean things can’t change with another focus, even without leaving the double threshold philosophy. -A shift to what Almgren is doing and prioritising might change a lot, but what do I know. It still feels too good to be true that a guy with such a strong 3000m PB also could be likely good or even better in the longer distances… But exciting it will be if Jakob keeps on with his project!
5. The last sentence in the last paragraph leads me to the crucial point: Jakob and injuries/psychological stress.
For a long time there was a myth that Jakob was very seldom injured, and he himself stressed how important it was to stay healthy, and how double threshold was the better training program to achieve this. And his brother Henrik often said that Jakob avoided the injuries he and Filip got, and that that made a huge difference. But we now know that also Jakob has had his fair share of injuries (and sickness) up throughout the years.
Last year Jakob stressed that he couldn’t afford an injury one more time like the Achilles one in his left foot. And bang: he got an even worse injury in his right (and pictures from Japan show than he puts his left foot in ice water, maybe indicating reoccurrence in that leg as well.) And in his last interview (after the tonsils operation) he is excited to see how his Achilles will act, so the problems may very well linger on without even a pause… So yes, big red flag here.
Zero chance of coming back in peak shape (meaning better than ever)? Well, we don’t know that. But surely Jakob has to change something -Henrik (brother and agent) thinks the stress around the family conflict/court trial gave the injury problems, whereas Filip (brother and coach) point to the indoor season as possible cause. So maybe adjustments in one or both points here can solve the problem, and even allow Jakob to train even harder..?
I have no idea if Jakob will make it. But if he does, after all these problems, boy, he will be even bigger in my eyes..!
According to the post you have replied to, his chances for breaking those records are ABOUT ZERO. Do you even understand this? It's complete nonsense. If he can reach his best form again for sure he has some chance to break those records. Will he be back at his best? We can't know.
But his chance is NOT ABOUT ZERO.
Armstronglivs hardly ever has done A GOOD POST to those subjects.
I am saying he won't regain his previous best form because of his increased susceptibility to injury. So that means his chances of breaking the records that he says he is going to break is about zero; he won't get them. He could only get them if he had not been injured and was able to be in better form than he ever has been. His susceptibility to injury now will prevent that.
Oh cool, another interesting thread derailed by someone arguing with Armstrong. At this point you’re the problem, not him. We know what he’s about.
A view that Ingebrigtsen won't break the records because of his body breaking down is "derailing the thread"? There is a requirement that one must agree with the prevailing view here (based on optimism more than anything else) that he will get the records?
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