Is this thread a joke? Who wins? We have witnessed the greatest 5000m runner to ever exist. He closes races in 52 and makes it look like he’s jogging. Literally DEMOLISHED the unbeatable Komen records. I don’t get how anyone could pick Hocker over Him. He could blow coles doors off. In a solo time trial (running alone, no pacers, no wavelight) we know that Jakob is a 3:28 low guy. I honestly don’t know if Hocker could break 3:30 under those conditions. In fully paced race (running with pacers only, wavelight, paced until 1499m) I think Jakob is a 3:24 guy at peak fitness. Hocker on the other hand is probably 3:27 low. Things only get worse as you go up in distance. At 3000m fully paced Jakob is around 7:15 and Hocker 7:20. In a fully paced 5000 I have Jakob at 12:29 and Hocker at 12:42-45. The fitness difference is clear. As others have said, a runners top speed really has no effect on their kick unless they are jogging. Go watch the video of Matthew Boling running a mile TT. Matthew runs sub 10 and sub 20 and yet his kick isn’t much better than a jv runner. The point is, aerobic capacity is the main determiner in kicking ability. Unless Jakob screws around running 65s and leaves it until the last lap, I can’t see a single scenario where Hocker comes out on top. Jakob can just put the hammer down in the last 1200-2k. Can Hocker run a 3:49-3:50 last 1600? I would bet that Jakob can. Even if he leaves it until 800m to go, I think he could run the kick out of hocker. Long story short, Jakob is the G.O.A.T. 5000m runner until proven otherwise. -Coach Stahl
Don't most of you think JI in peak shape is able to run ~12:33 or even below?
If so -I'm not refusing nor accepting that premise, just don't have a clue- where is the debate?
Of course not only Hocker, but no one, could be near him in the last two laps.
I think Jakob was in 12:33-34 shape, while Hocker is in 12:36-39.
In a championship, Jakob wouldn't be able to run away from Hocker if he attempts to make it fast himself, because there wouldn't be any drafting (800dude has mentioned) for him, so it would still come down to the last lap, and at that point, Jakob would get swallowed by Hocker or even more guys like he did in the 1500m last year.
Bringing it out with a mile to go may be better, but let's not forget Cole is also a 3:27 guy, so his speed endurance is pretty close to Jakob. Tbh, I think it's less about what Jakob can do than waiting for Cole to screw up his tactics which is a real possibility, I mean...well, he just did it in the 1500 semi didn't he? I literally lol-ed when I saw someone say he had great tactics in the 5k. Actually his positioning was terrible, compared to Jakob in Budapest where he got everything perfect tactic-wise, that's why he had to go through all that traffic from 12th - 1st. He's just so good on that day no one could've beaten him there.
Again, Hocker is just so much better than the guys Jakob had to face between 2022 and 24. The closest one was Katir. That race was also indeed close, much closer than Hocker to Kimeli. That said, Jakob might have over-extended in the 1500m so he underperformed there, but still that's the only race he closed faster than Hocker (traffic aside), and he already got everything right and that's 13 secs slower in finish time.
Jakob before and after the 5000m race against Katir: “I was dizzy all day”. -Only reason Jakob won that day with that level of sickness was his perfect racing close to the rail.
You need all of the facts when pretending to analyse the races.
That's what he said. I'm a Jakob stan, but that doesn't mean I necessarily believe everything he says. He said after Paris 1500m, he wanted to win in an honorable way, that's why he front-ran, but you never saw him do that in his 5k wins.
As for Katir, I mentioned him because he's the closest competition Jakob could ever get before this year. Tbh, I never care if they dope or not, I watch sports for fun. That's why I have no problem with all the speculations on Hocker. I wouldn't shock me if he uses something, same as anybody.
yeah, because no human can close a 5k in 52.6 on outer lane (which would be faster than his 800 PR), if he isn't already in far better shape than the time indicates. 13:05 pace has to be very comfortable for him, so comfortable, he could toy with the field like that.
Some of you don’t trust Jakob’s sayings (e.g about being sick) because there’s a gap between how he wants to win and how he actually runs his 5000meters. But then you don’t understand the facts:
1. He grossly underperformed against Kerr in WC 2023 (Aligns perfectly with his sayings about being sick -and for the record: He didn’t miss out his tactics; not a poorly performed front running).
2. He beat only marginally 12.45 man Katir. Clearly sick!
3. Jakob ran an honourable WC 5000m in 2022, pretty much because he had to make a point. But the reason why he hasn’t kept on with this honourable racing is obvious: He is doubling, and the 5000m comes last, so he has to be realistic.
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so that's like 1 sec better. Wow, that makes a lot of difference in a 5k where if Jakob uses the proposed strategy - that is, bringing it out from 1 mile to go - and the 1600 is finished in 3:54 (or 3:37-38 pace) for a 3:27 guy!(remember, Hocker would surely be the one being paced there)
In 2023 and 2024 Jakob was 2 seconds+ better than the next guys. That doesn’t mean that they eventually can’t close the gap, but time will tell. And I base this on Jakob’s 3.26/3.43 and his Silesia performance (3.27.14 almost un paced on a bad day).
I think Kerr, Hocker and Nuguse have been guys that marginally can dip 3.29 in a normally paced race…
then it's also disingenuous to call Jakob a 3:26 guy when his non-paced PR is 3:28
Curious_Cat wrote: because no human can close a 5k in 52.6 on outer lane (which would be faster than his 800 PR), if he isn't already in far better shape than the time indicates. 13:05 pace has to be very comfortable for him, so comfortable, he could toy with the field like that.
McRunnin wrote: Those 4 seconds all came on the final lap.
Your logic is flawed. -Nobody has run 3.26 without pacers. What we are talking about is what an athlete can do with normal pacing -Jakob has done 3.26, Habz has done 3.27, Cheruiyot has done 3.28.
Hocker’s weakness is the same as Beamish’s: The kick. -They can only kick because they have (a mental?) problem with following the pace, and therefore let them selves fall too fare back (but thus also getting enough left for a kick). And this isn’t purely my speculation -Beamish has expressed the same thoughts himself..
Cole has matured in the 1500m, and has no kick when he runs good. (His “kick” was a little slower than Nuguse’s in OG 2024, and barely faster than Kerr that was forced to run wide the whole last bend, and maybe also was a little cooked by following Jakob’s fast opening.).
In a race against peak Jakob Cole has to find a more mature pace in the 5000m, on expense of his kick. Or simply be out run by the Norwegian…
Hocker’s weakness is the same as Beamish’s: The kick. -They can only kick because they have (a mental?) problem with following the pace, and therefore let them selves fall too fare back (but thus also getting enough left for a kick). And this isn’t purely my speculation -Beamish has expressed the same thoughts himself..
Cole has matured in the 1500m, and has no kick when he runs good. (His “kick” was a little slower than Nuguse’s in OG 2024, and barely faster than Kerr that was forced to run wide the whole last bend, and maybe also was a little cooked by following Jakob’s fast opening.).
In a race against peak Jakob Cole has to find a more mature pace in the 5000m, on expense of his kick. Or simply be out run by the Norwegian…
You call this a weakness when both conserved energy and just won in championship races. It’s only a weakness if it lowers their placing. This hasn’t been the case for Hocker historically, but for Beamish it’s a tad murkier given his injury history. Hocker doesn’t seem to get gapped in the big races, but rather is at the back of the top pack.
For Hocker, the concern is that Jakob gaps him substantially and he can’t make up the ground. Sure he can run 51-52 to close the race but if Jakob can get a second time gap and 6-10 bodies between them for Hocker to navigate…perhaps Hocker is kicking for silver not gold. I think it’s a somewhat fascinating question.
A notable thing is Hocker beat Mehary by 1.6s this year, Jakob beat him by 2.3s in Paris. Mehary is a better athlete this year, though. This indicates to me that the field this year was better, as I don’t think Lobalu was in that special form last year. He did run 7:27.68, but doubtless Ky Robinson would be right on that given his 7:30 indoors mark going out very aggressively . I think positions 2 and 3 were firing better than Kwemoi last year. 12:58 with a monster kick is hard. The real question becomes does Jakob properly time his squeeze and does Hocker lose contact. It doesn’t seem outlasting Hocker is going to work unless someone besides Jakob makes it a sub-12:50 race.
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You call this a weakness when both conserved energy and just won in championship races. It’s only a weakness if it lowers their placing. This hasn’t been the case for Hocker historically, but for Beamish it’s a tad murkier given his injury history. Hocker doesn’t seem to get gapped in the big races, but rather is at the back of the top pack.
For Hocker, the concern is that Jakob gaps him substantially and he can’t make up the ground. Sure he can run 51-52 to close the race but if Jakob can get a second time gap and 6-10 bodies between them for Hocker to navigate…perhaps Hocker is kicking for silver not gold. I think it’s a somewhat fascinating question.
A notable thing is Hocker beat Mehary by 1.6s this year, Jakob beat him by 2.3s in Paris. Mehary is a better athlete this year, though. This indicates to me that the field this year was better, as I don’t think Lobalu was in that special form last year. He did run 7:27.68, but doubtless Ky Robinson would be right on that given his 7:30 indoors mark going out very aggressively . I think positions 2 and 3 were firing better than Kwemoi last year. 12:58 with a monster kick is hard. The real question becomes does Jakob properly time his squeeze and does Hocker lose contact. It doesn’t seem outlasting Hocker is going to work unless someone besides Jakob makes it a sub-12:50 race.
I know you believe in this strange thing “kick”. And of course it could have been a physiological/psychological human ability some had better than others. But it doesn’t look like that, or if it does, only to a very small degree.
If Hocker can close in a 51/52 it’s clearly unnecessary of him to give a gap, or being behind eleven competitors. Clearly he could hang if he wanted/taught him self to.
And a 51/52 isn’t fast. I once could do that myself, (without the flying), and I’m a distance guy (well, I couldn’t do ii if I was normally fatigued).
Both Hocker and Ingebrigtsen are presumably 49 flat +/- from the blocks in a 400m. So they can both run 49+ something with flying, last lap, if they have enough left in the tank. And yes, it is a weakness if you got that much left -Hocker couldn’t know that none of the other medalists couldn’t run faster than they did on the home straight. So in that sense he got lucky, and had a bad strategy. And enough left in the last lap also ruins your time, that is in the very end all that matters/should matter (when someone is evaluated as a runner). And look to Laros, he had f.x two races posters here thought were splendid -the one where he beat Nuguse with hundreds after being gapped hugely, and the one where he kicked to a win via 12,5 sec last home straight. But I think both races were extremely bad disposed, thus making him only a 3.29 low/3.45xx guy -the thing is not to win races like that, but to run them fast, and seize the opportunity. Else you might end up as an also ran after permanent injury. Saying that Laros of course will be back for some huge times…
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Well I simply don't believe that there are so many people out there who supposedly have all this sub 12:50 speed without ever running it in a race. If they did they'd run it.
And I also don't think you have to have that kind of speed to be a medal threat, because there are tons of guys out there who are time trialers and don't have the racing skills required for global medals.
The four fastest men of all time don't have a global gold medal between them, guys like Mills, Kuma, Mehary and Kipkorir are in the top 15 all time and are barely sniffing any medals in global finals.
Do you also believe that Mo Farah was maxed out at 12:53 because that was his PB? I never liked the guy but the idea that people are only as good as their PBs is simply ridiculous. I mean the same logic applies to Jakob and his 12:48.
People were shocked that Hocker went from being "only a 3:30.mid guy" to running 3:27 in Paris but if you look at how he closed at the US trials he was already showing signs of being in 3:28 shape (Nick Willis thought so too).
Yes, we can be more sure about how close people are to their max if they regularly race time trials on the circuit. Jakob doesn't race the circuit so we know his 12:48 isn't his max. And Farah only had his breakthrough after he started working with Salazar.
I think what is overlooked a bit is that a race is not only total time and the last lap but how the race developed.
JI ran like 56/57 + 53.xx in Paris for the last 2 laps. I do not know this for sure (of course) but it could have happend even if CH right now ran a slower race (like the Paris 5000) that that quicker penultimate lap would have fried him more and he would not close in a 53.x then.
Just my 0.02.
I always found it insane how fast those last 800 were for JI in 2023 and 2024 (1:50.x each). That last lap alone isn't the whole story. CH "only" ran like 61.4 and 52.6 for a 12:58 while JI close a slower race with a 56/57.x + 53.x.
first, that's a DL race with no round, second, 53.6 was completely different from 52.6 going from 12th to 1st with a faster finish time. Looking through history, plenty of runners have run 53 in a 13:00 race, even Paul Chelimo did it, but there're only very few people have dropped a 52 (let alone in lane 2) in a 13:00 race (let alone sub-13).
You’re hung up on 52.6 vs 53.6, but you’re ignoring the context. Jakob’s 53.6/25.6 in London came when he was 18, running 13:02, and he attempted to front-run the entire last 400m. Conversely, that’s a very different effort than sitting, drafting, and then swinging wide in lane 2. Since then, he’s shown over and over he can close even harder in Budapest and Paris, plus a 5:02 last 2k in Florence off a 12:48 pace. He’s proven he belongs in the “52-last-lap off sub-13” club. So no, a tenth of a second and a lane-2 move doesn’t change the bigger picture. Jakob has already matched that type of finish, from the front, at 18, and has only gotten better since. That’s why people don’t want to force an honest race when he’s on the line at his best, it just gives him more ways to beat you.
+1
I will add that Jakob in 2019 season ran 3:30.18 in the 1500m. Next year he ran 7:27 in the 3000m and 4:50 in the 2000m.
Since then he has improved almost 3.5 sec in the 1500m, almost 7 sec in the 2000m and about 9.5 sec in 3000m.
He must therefore also be much stronger on all parameters in the 5000m since the DL London 1500m 2019.
His 5000m PB from 2021 is of course also destined for a significant improvement in a paced race, provided he regains his best shape.
Yes, Jakob is indeed faster than Hocker even when Hocker got the best pacing you can possibly get. And Jakob has run 17 (seventeen) times that are faster than Hockers second fastest time.
so that's like 1 sec better. Wow, that makes a lot of difference in a 5k where if Jakob uses the proposed strategy - that is, bringing it out from 1 mile to go - and the 1600 is finished in 3:54 (or 3:37-38 pace) for a 3:27 guy!(remember, Hocker would surely be the one being paced there)
And what is the difference in the 3000m? Don´t you think hat is more relevant for their chances in he 5000m?
By the way: If Hocker only could draft until around 1050m as Jakob did in the DL Monaco 2024 PB race he would be 3:28 runner.
Let´s compare 2 races where Hocker and Jakob ran on more equal terms:
Hocker´s Millrose PB 3000m and Jakob´s Silesia WR 3000m.
Hocker got drafting for about for 2400m and Jakob for about 1950m so slight advantage to Hocker.
Hocker ran the first 2000m in 4:58.27; Jakob ran in 4:55.21 so about 3 sec faster.
So if Hocker should be the faster runner he should be significantly faster on the last 1000m but as you possibly already know?...... Hocker ran 2:24.91 whereas Jakob ran 2:22.34.
Jakob in peak shape can - on equal terms - run a faster last 1000m and possibly also a faster last 1600m than anyone in history, of course including Hocker.
And that is what "snowflakes" in vain has tried to point out in several posts on this thread.
Hey man, we get your point that Jakob’s 3K WR is way better than Cole’s Melrose performance. But you’re missing the forest for the trees if you’re saying that Melrose was Cole’s peak, just like we wouldn’t say that Jakob’s excellent indoor performances are his peak.
//
I think Jakob still has the advantage, but damn that would be a fun race to watch. Like Bekele in the 2008 Olympics, going to the front and trying to grind down Lagat. Lagat won in 2007, Bekele won 2008 and 2009. I think it’s a similar split.
Also, last year we were asking if Jakob is basically unbeatable at 5000m. Now we’re have a legitimate challenger. How crazy is sport?
I agree that Hocker is the most serious contender a peak Jakob has had.
The Millrose 3000m: You aren´t the first to claim that this 3000m was not run in peak shape.
But why is it then relatively the best race Hocker has ever run?
He is no. 6 on the all time 3000m list and gets 1282 points after IAAF´s OUTDOOR tabel.
His OG Paris 1500m - where he supposedly was in his best shape- makes him no. 8 all time and gives 1278 points.
And in Paris he drafted almost all the way whereas he front ran around 600m of the 3000m.
AND IF he wasn´t in his best shape why hasn´t he been able to come close relatively to that time neiher before nor later?
His 5000m PB makes him no. 117 on the all time list and gives him 1252 points.
His DL Lausanne1500m 2024 time at high 3:29 around 14 days after his Olympic 1500m gold gives him 1247 points. A race where he could draft all the way to the finish.
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So it is hard to see that he wasn´t peak shape in the Millrose 3000m.
From everybody's lips to G-d's ears. Pray they are both 100% fit and healthy in 2026-2028 so this can be settled the only way possible, on the track. As a fan of the sport, the saddest think about Tokyo was seeing Jakob look the way he did. I don't care if he gets beat, I just want it to be peak Jakob win or lose. This is no knock on Hocker, he can only beat who is ready to race, but there's no way around the mental asterisk when Jakob is a shadow of his best.
The Millrose 3000m: You aren´t the first to claim that this 3000m was not run in peak shape.
But why is it then relatively the best race Hocker has ever run?
He is no. 6 on the all time 3000m list and gets 1282 points after IAAF´s OUTDOOR tabel.
His OG Paris 1500m - where he supposedly was in his best shape- makes him no. 8 all time and gives 1278 points.
And in Paris he drafted almost all the way whereas he front ran around 600m of the 3000m.
AND IF he wasn´t in his best shape why hasn´t he been able to come close relatively to that time neiher before nor later?
His 5000m PB makes him no. 117 on the all time list and gives him 1252 points.
His DL Lausanne1500m 2024 time at high 3:29 around 14 days after his Olympic 1500m gold gives him 1247 points. A race where he could draft all the way to the finish.
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So it is hard to see that he wasn´t peak shape in the Millrose 3000m.
You guys are so dense. Why is Hocker's placing on the all time 3k compared to the 1500m list important? It's not an event competed nearly as much as the 1500m. He's clearly in better shape now though than when he ran that 3k at milrose. 5 people in history have run faster than him in the 3k, but I really doubt 5 people could 12:58 in hot and humid conditions closing the last lap in 52 running in lane 2 the whole time. I feel like half these comments are AI slop. Use your heads people.
If anyone could close a 12:58 5k in 52 staying in lane 2 the whole time, it may be Jakob. But Hocker being in better shape now than in February should not be a debate.
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