Is this thread a joke? Who wins? We have witnessed the greatest 5000m runner to ever exist. He closes races in 52 and makes it look like he’s jogging. Literally DEMOLISHED the unbeatable Komen records. I don’t get how anyone could pick Hocker over Him. He could blow coles doors off. In a solo time trial (running alone, no pacers, no wavelight) we know that Jakob is a 3:28 low guy. I honestly don’t know if Hocker could break 3:30 under those conditions. In fully paced race (running with pacers only, wavelight, paced until 1499m) I think Jakob is a 3:24 guy at peak fitness. Hocker on the other hand is probably 3:27 low. Things only get worse as you go up in distance. At 3000m fully paced Jakob is around 7:15 and Hocker 7:20. In a fully paced 5000 I have Jakob at 12:29 and Hocker at 12:42-45. The fitness difference is clear. As others have said, a runners top speed really has no effect on their kick unless they are jogging. Go watch the video of Matthew Boling running a mile TT. Matthew runs sub 10 and sub 20 and yet his kick isn’t much better than a jv runner. The point is, aerobic capacity is the main determiner in kicking ability. Unless Jakob screws around running 65s and leaves it until the last lap, I can’t see a single scenario where Hocker comes out on top. Jakob can just put the hammer down in the last 1200-2k. Can Hocker run a 3:49-3:50 last 1600? I would bet that Jakob can. Even if he leaves it until 800m to go, I think he could run the kick out of hocker. Long story short, Jakob is the G.O.A.T. 5000m runner until proven otherwise. -Coach Stahl
Don't most of you think JI in peak shape is able to run ~12:33 or even below?
If so -I'm not refusing nor accepting that premise, just don't have a clue- where is the debate?
Of course not only Hocker, but no one, could be near him in the last two laps.
I think Jakob was in 12:33-34 shape, while Hocker is in 12:36-39.
In a championship, Jakob wouldn't be able to run away from Hocker if he attempts to make it fast himself, because there wouldn't be any drafting (800dude has mentioned) for him, so it would still come down to the last lap, and at that point, Jakob would get swallowed by Hocker or even more guys like he did in the 1500m last year.
Bringing it out with a mile to go may be better, but let's not forget Cole is also a 3:27 guy, so his speed endurance is pretty close to Jakob. Tbh, I think it's less about what Jakob can do than waiting for Cole to screw up his tactics which is a real possibility, I mean...well, he just did it in the 1500 semi didn't he? I literally lol-ed when I saw someone say he had great tactics in the 5k. Actually his positioning was terrible, compared to Jakob in Budapest where he got everything perfect tactic-wise, that's why he had to go through all that traffic from 12th - 1st. He's just so good on that day no one could've beaten him there.
Again, Hocker is just so much better than the guys Jakob had to face between 2022 and 24. The closest one was Katir. That race was also indeed close, much closer than Hocker to Kimeli. That said, Jakob might have over-extended in the 1500m so he underperformed there, but still that's the only race he closed faster than Hocker (traffic aside), and he already got everything right and that's 13 secs slower in finish time.
Jakob before and after the 5000m race against Katir: “I was dizzy all day”. -Only reason Jakob won that day with that level of sickness was his perfect racing close to the rail.
You need all of the facts when pretending to analyse the races.
That's what he said. I'm a Jakob stan, but that doesn't mean I necessarily believe everything he says. He said after Paris 1500m, he wanted to win in an honorable way, that's why he front-ran, but you never saw him do that in his 5k wins.
As for Katir, I mentioned him because he's the closest competition Jakob could ever get before this year. Tbh, I never care if they dope or not, I watch sports for fun. That's why I have no problem with all the speculations on Hocker. I wouldn't shock me if he uses something, same as anybody.
yeah, because no human can close a 5k in 52.6 on outer lane (which would be faster than his 800 PR), if he isn't already in far better shape than the time indicates. 13:05 pace has to be very comfortable for him, so comfortable, he could toy with the field like that.
Some of you don’t trust Jakob’s sayings (e.g about being sick) because there’s a gap between how he wants to win and how he actually runs his 5000meters. But then you don’t understand the facts:
1. He grossly underperformed against Kerr in WC 2023 (Aligns perfectly with his sayings about being sick -and for the record: He didn’t miss out his tactics; not a poorly performed front running).
2. He beat only marginally 12.45 man Katir. Clearly sick!
3. Jakob ran an honourable WC 5000m in 2022, pretty much because he had to make a point. But the reason why he hasn’t kept on with this honourable racing is obvious: He is doubling, and the 5000m comes last, so he has to be realistic.
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so that's like 1 sec better. Wow, that makes a lot of difference in a 5k where if Jakob uses the proposed strategy - that is, bringing it out from 1 mile to go - and the 1600 is finished in 3:54 (or 3:37-38 pace) for a 3:27 guy!(remember, Hocker would surely be the one being paced there)
In 2023 and 2024 Jakob was 2 seconds+ better than the next guys. That doesn’t mean that they eventually can’t close the gap, but time will tell. And I base this on Jakob’s 3.26/3.43 and his Silesia performance (3.27.14 almost un paced on a bad day).
I think Kerr, Hocker and Nuguse have been guys that marginally can dip 3.29 in a normally paced race…
then it's also disingenuous to call Jakob a 3:26 guy when his non-paced PR is 3:28
Curious_Cat wrote: because no human can close a 5k in 52.6 on outer lane (which would be faster than his 800 PR), if he isn't already in far better shape than the time indicates. 13:05 pace has to be very comfortable for him, so comfortable, he could toy with the field like that.
McRunnin wrote: Those 4 seconds all came on the final lap.
Your logic is flawed. -Nobody has run 3.26 without pacers. What we are talking about is what an athlete can do with normal pacing -Jakob has done 3.26, Habz has done 3.27, Cheruiyot has done 3.28.
Hocker’s weakness is the same as Beamish’s: The kick. -They can only kick because they have (a mental?) problem with following the pace, and therefore let them selves fall too fare back (but thus also getting enough left for a kick). And this isn’t purely my speculation -Beamish has expressed the same thoughts himself..
Cole has matured in the 1500m, and has no kick when he runs good. (His “kick” was a little slower than Nuguse’s in OG 2024, and barely faster than Kerr that was forced to run wide the whole last bend, and maybe also was a little cooked by following Jakob’s fast opening.).
In a race against peak Jakob Cole has to find a more mature pace in the 5000m, on expense of his kick. Or simply be out run by the Norwegian…
Hocker’s weakness is the same as Beamish’s: The kick. -They can only kick because they have (a mental?) problem with following the pace, and therefore let them selves fall too fare back (but thus also getting enough left for a kick). And this isn’t purely my speculation -Beamish has expressed the same thoughts himself..
Cole has matured in the 1500m, and has no kick when he runs good. (His “kick” was a little slower than Nuguse’s in OG 2024, and barely faster than Kerr that was forced to run wide the whole last bend, and maybe also was a little cooked by following Jakob’s fast opening.).
In a race against peak Jakob Cole has to find a more mature pace in the 5000m, on expense of his kick. Or simply be out run by the Norwegian…
You call this a weakness when both conserved energy and just won in championship races. It’s only a weakness if it lowers their placing. This hasn’t been the case for Hocker historically, but for Beamish it’s a tad murkier given his injury history. Hocker doesn’t seem to get gapped in the big races, but rather is at the back of the top pack.
For Hocker, the concern is that Jakob gaps him substantially and he can’t make up the ground. Sure he can run 51-52 to close the race but if Jakob can get a second time gap and 6-10 bodies between them for Hocker to navigate…perhaps Hocker is kicking for silver not gold. I think it’s a somewhat fascinating question.
A notable thing is Hocker beat Mehary by 1.6s this year, Jakob beat him by 2.3s in Paris. Mehary is a better athlete this year, though. This indicates to me that the field this year was better, as I don’t think Lobalu was in that special form last year. He did run 7:27.68, but doubtless Ky Robinson would be right on that given his 7:30 indoors mark going out very aggressively . I think positions 2 and 3 were firing better than Kwemoi last year. 12:58 with a monster kick is hard. The real question becomes does Jakob properly time his squeeze and does Hocker lose contact. It doesn’t seem outlasting Hocker is going to work unless someone besides Jakob makes it a sub-12:50 race.
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