Well I hope he gets back over to Europe and just has some fun being a pro runner, a dream for so many. At the end of the day, Kessler needs to realize he has acheived a huge feat, making an Olympic team in two events and finishing fifth in the Olympics. No matter what else happens with his career it has been a success and he will forever be an Olympian. From here on out don't put so much pressure on yourself. Yes, somedays he could finish top 3 in the world, many times he could be top 3 in the U.S. and sometimes it will be a dissapointment. He needs to just focus on training to be the best he can be and just have fun on race day playing a kids game and living the dream.
You didn’t define “at the end of the day” but I assume that day will occur about 10 years from now.
yeah, the strategy was sound, it's just that the field has improved way too fast.
Yeah. He didn’t run his best race but these three guys closing in mid-12s isnt something he/any of us could predict with certainty. Strand had never done it at this level vs this field. Koech was MIA for 2 months. Nuguse running a little less hard in the prelim and executing a bit better in the final probably beats Kessler. And he probably thought beating Kessler would be enough. Maybe 1 guy would break out and make a leap but two?
Going forward, maybe Kessler/Nuguse need to embrace the dreaded “random” race more. The predictable race clearly played exactly to Strands strengths. It didn’t faze Koech either. It takes out Nathan Green who is more of a threat in a random race but that’s one guy.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
Watch as many times as you like, Nuguse absolutely ran away from Hocker and Kessler in that race. Only Habz stuck with him and Laros ran a storming last 100m and caught the fading Nuguse
Sure did. But that’s not what I was responding to.
Hiney Licker wrote: Newname wrote: Didn't he run away from Hocker and Kessler with the same approach on July 5, 2025? No. Go re watch. He followed rabbits who followed wave lights. Had neither of those today, plus much more pressure. Totally different scenario.
Sure did. But that’s not what I was responding to.
Hiney Licker wrote: Newname wrote: Didn't he run away from Hocker and Kessler with the same approach on July 5, 2025? No. Go re watch. He followed rabbits who followed wave lights. Had neither of those today, plus much more pressure. Totally different scenario.
“The same strategy” are the key words here. Leading from the gun was a new strategy.
Im sure you understand the difference, but Im also sure you won’t admit it.
It's an interesting question. Here's my take as a long jumper track enthusiast. The issue is that it's a bit of a game theory problem. No one wants to be the sitting duck/self sacrifice, so it either compounds into a super slow race where everyone's just waiting, or someone tries to take it out and fails.
You said it yourself that you currently don't know what this "third solution" is, so I don't think it's really this simple. There's simply too much on the line for every pro athlete and coach for me to actually think that everyone is just really stupid. You could do the slow wind up ~600m kick, but someone still needs to take the race out.
I watch a lot of pro cycling where drafting matters even more than running, and the way they do it in a smallish group is through coordination. When you have 4 people in a break-way, everyone takes a turn at the lead. Breakways are often unsuccessful because they fail to coordinate, one person refuses to take a turn pulling, and they end up getting caught. The issue is the 1500m is much slower than a 4 hour cycling race, and in running, there exists none of these unwritten "working together" rules that cycling has...so if Kerr, Hocker, Jakob, and Naguse get in a group chat the night before Worlds final and plan to each lead for a segment, nobody can truly trust the other to actually go through with it, and someone becomes the loser of hot potato.
Additionally, cycling has teammates. Sometimes you see the Ethiopians work together in championship meets, but again, the 1500 is very short. It's simply very difficult to coordinate sharing the lead, and it's better to just hope someone else does it and isn't 5% better on the day as you say. Finally, my only point about Yared was that if the goal was top 3, this wasn't a horrible strategy. Agreed not a good strategy to win.
Based on pre-race knowledge, I really don't think that Yared's strategy was all that bad. Winning is nice, but remember that the real goal here is to just secure top 3. While we know in the past few years that this strategy is fairly unlikely to win, he probably thought that he could pretty easily secure top 3 by front running to take out most of the field. He obviously just didn't have it today and probably would not have had it with any other race strategy, but it really wasn't a bad tactic to try and secure top 3.
Disagree. The strategy was clearly not effective and it almost never is. The data suggests that you have to be 5% stronger to win from the front. The gap has closed and he clearly is not 5% stronger. Everyone knew that before the race. Throw in the wind and the heat and it was a very predictable recipe for failure. Occasionally, coaches revolutionize a sport by thinking a little differently. Guardiola did this in football (soccer) by conceptualizing the passing game differently. The coaching in distance, from a tactical race perspective, seems very underdeveloped. Having Nuguse front run was a coaching error. If he had had a specific, thoughtful approach where he is running splits that were tailored to his strengths there was a very high likelihood that he would have qualified. As I posted earlier, why are the options: 1. run from the front, and 2. run in the pack and sit and kick. This is where the sport is from a tactical perspective? I am no coaching guru but there has to be a third option that can be practiced, visualized and implemented for these precise scenarios that continue to bedevil the aerobically strong but not super elite kickers.
I was replying to this post, forgot to quote. And apologies to Olympic medalist Yared Nuguse for misspelling his last name!
Not a great deal of good news for On running at this meet and this year really (but for the chronically injured Beamish at Worlds). Could there be a coaching staff change soon?
Disagree. The strategy was clearly not effective and it almost never is. The data suggests that you have to be 5% stronger to win from the front. The gap has closed and he clearly is not 5% stronger. Everyone knew that before the race. Throw in the wind and the heat and it was a very predictable recipe for failure. Occasionally, coaches revolutionize a sport by thinking a little differently. Guardiola did this in football (soccer) by conceptualizing the passing game differently. The coaching in distance, from a tactical race perspective, seems very underdeveloped. Having Nuguse front run was a coaching error. If he had had a specific, thoughtful approach where he is running splits that were tailored to his strengths there was a very high likelihood that he would have qualified. As I posted earlier, why are the options: 1. run from the front, and 2. run in the pack and sit and kick. This is where the sport is from a tactical perspective? I am no coaching guru but there has to be a third option that can be practiced, visualized and implemented for these precise scenarios that continue to bedevil the aerobically strong but not super elite kickers.
I’ve never heard the 5% thing before, can you cite sources?
Also, he mirrored last year’s OT run, which worked, and also likely felt he was much stronger than everyone via feedback from Pre. So not sure I’m buying the “everyone knew that before the race” part,
Citation List Pugh, L. G. C. E. (1971). The influence of wind resistance in running and walking and the mechanical efficiency of work against horizontal and vertical forces. The Journal of Physiology, 213(2), 255–276. https://doi.org/10.1113/jphysiol.1971.sp009381 Davies, C. T. M. (1980). Effects of wind assistance and resistance on the forward motion of a runner. Journal of Applied Physiology: Respiratory, Environmental and Exercise Physiology, 48(4), 702–709. https://doi.org/10.1152/jappl.1980.48.4.702 Schickhofer, L., & Hanson, A. J. (2021). Running in the wind: CFD analysis of drafting and aerodynamic drag in elite runners. arXiv.
Drafting as a process to reduce drag and to benefit from the presence of other competitors is applied in various sports with several recent examples of competitive running in formations. In this study, the aerodynamics of a r...
da Silva, L. S., Hoogkamer, W., & Kram, R. (2022). Drafting can save minutes off marathoners’ times and make official sub-2 possible. Journal of Applied Physiology. [University of Colorado Boulder summary]
A first-of-its kind CU Boulder study shows that even middle-of-the-pack marathoners can shave three to five minutes off their time via drafting. It could also
Foster, C., Lucia, A., Esteve-Lanao, J., & de Koning, J. J. (2005). Pattern of distance running performance: A theoretical model. Exercise and Sport Sciences Reviews, 33(3), 137–143. https://doi.org/10.1097/00003677-200507000-00006 Wikipedia contributors. (n.d.). Pacing strategies in track and field. Wikipedia.
Pacing strategies in track and field are the varied strategies which runners use to distribute their energy throughout a race. Optimal strategies exist and have been studied for the different events of track and field. These...
Discover how drafting???a tactic borrowed from cycling???can help runners reduce wind resistance, conserve energy, and improve race performance. From Kipchoge to Bannister, here???s how it works and why it matters.
Great points. I certainly don't know the answer. Coaching is obviously fantastic today from a physical preparation standpoint, but I am not sure that the tactical coaching has kept pace. With the wind and heat at Haywood the odds of a frontrunner winning that race were exceptionally low. Agree that athletes could work together, but that is fraught with problems as you point out. I suspect the answer is in visualizing and practicing a very specific pace and then turn of pace at precise makers, say 1k to go and then 600 to go. Trying to run your own race within the race. It is obviously super difficult or it would be done more often, but that doesn't mean that there isn't room for tactical growth in this area. I am sure most soccer coaches thought the passing game was what it was until Guardiola came along for Barcelona.
Great points. I certainly don't know the answer. Coaching is obviously fantastic today from a physical preparation standpoint, but I am not sure that the tactical coaching has kept pace. With the wind and heat at Haywood the odds of a frontrunner winning that race were exceptionally low. Agree that athletes could work together, but that is fraught with problems as you point out. I suspect the answer is in visualizing and practicing a very specific pace and then turn of pace at precise makers, say 1k to go and then 600 to go. Trying to run your own race within the race. It is obviously super difficult or it would be done more often, but that doesn't mean that there isn't room for tactical growth in this area. I am sure most soccer coaches thought the passing game was what it was until Guardiola came along for Barcelona.
Agreed, it's not easy! It's also gotta be real hard to execute precise strategies under duress like that, where controlling variables is incredibly difficult. It all happens so fast, and you have no guarantee of your positioning, unless you are leading. Im glad I never had to deal with any of that. Armchair quarterbacking is easy.
I'd love someone to come on an innovate a little with these tactics. As you say, it's a bit of an end of history illusion to assume that we've tried everything possible already.
Are you willing to apply the same logic to Hocker?
guy had never dipped under 3:30 before in his life and magically runs a 3:27 in Paris??? Hasn’t won a race since. Hocker has had a ton of opportunities in “tactical races” to replicate his Olympic glory and struggles mightily to even sneak into the top 5 for most of them.
but yeah, it’s only the Africans….
This has got to be one of the last thought out posts in letsrun history.
Look, Hocker and Koech could a) both be doping b) both not be doping or c) one of them could be doping but not the other.
But if I was a sports book and I'm making betting odds that one ever tests postitive, you'd have the odds for Koech at least 300% higher than Hockers.
1) Hocker has shown himself to be a GREAT talent his entire life.
I believe he won his first national title at age 9. Then in HS he won the Footlocker xc title while barley running. In college, he won the mie and 3k on the same day in like the span of 90 minutes, beating an older and fresh Cooper Teare in the process. That was indoors in 2021. Outdoors, that year, he silenced reigning Olympic champ Matthew Centrowitz and won the US Trials and finish 6th in the Olympics - all after turning 21 that June.
When Koech was 21,he was 9th in the NCAA mile and 6th in the NCAA 800. His pbs were 1:46 and 4:01 for the mile (at altitude)
2) Hocker as a top talent who was born and raised in the US and has presumably been part of the out of testing pool for a long damn time given his stature Koech is from Kenya - which is like #2 in the world in doping - and still trains there at times.
I think it's wrong that someone says Koech is doped to his eyeballs. That's not factualy correct. That post honestly should be deleted. We like it if people say "I think he is.."
But to act like he's only saying it because he's African is absurd.
There have been a number of posts implying all criticism of Koech is racially motivated. I just think that's really weak, lazy argument. As if no one on here doubted Galen Rupp for 10+ years.
But all of this means nothing. The reality is both are eligible to compete. I've heard nothing about either of them. But let's not act like there isn't a MAJOR doping problem for athletes who train in Kenya.
PS. 300% means nothing if the odds are 1% and 3%.
Least thought out takes in letsrun history? It’s fine to disagree with what I said. It takes an intentional reduction of intelligence to resort to wild hyperbole like that.
1) Hocker at 21 was a good talent. Not a great talent. Kerr and Jakob at 21 were great. Hocker was good against other American talent that performed poorly on the world stage. Using the example of Hocker “silencing Centro” doesn’t help your cause. At his best, Centro was a 3:30 guy in an era when others were running 3:26-3:28(regardless of how suspect the doping was). To this day, the majority of fans believe Centro’s Olympic win to be a fluke that was not repeatable. And actually was never repeated. My money is on Hocker not making the Olympic final in 2028.
2) no one is arguing that doping in Africa isn’t widespread or prevalent. It is also widespread everywhere, including America. The implications that Koech could only run a 3:30 low for the win, in a race where Nuguse did 95% of the work for the field, is because he is cheating feels willfully dishonest. And that because he is African, he’s the only one. Calling out the low-grade racism was not absurd at all.
Ethan Strand ran the same race, similar time, finished a close second, and we celebrate. No one is questioning the fact that his best effort in the 1500m came in late May, where he ran a 3:33. Yesterday he had a 3 second improvement in two months time. No accusations or questioning of credibility. I’m fine with that. He should be celebrated for running a great race.
I probably should have led with that example. But my example of comparing Hocker to JK is just as valid. I’ll be very surprised if he wins again in a championship race or even at a diamond league event. I’ll be more surprised if he dips below 3:30 again in his career. It is much easier and believable for a professional(JK) to improve in the span of a year from 3:33/34 down to 3:30 in an opportunistic race. It becomes incredibly suspicious to watch someone(Hocker) who routinely runs 3:33/34, with a lifetime best of 3:30-mid somehow drop a 3:27 out of nowhere for a shocking upset. But hey, he’s American, and they have never been caught or exposed for being drug cheats in the modern era…..
Least thought out takes in letsrun history? It’s fine to disagree with what I said. It takes an intentional reduction of intelligence to resort to wild hyperbole like that.
1) Hocker at 21 was a good talent. Not a great talent. Kerr and Jakob at 21 were great. Hocker was good against other American talent that performed poorly on the world stage. Using the example of Hocker “silencing Centro” doesn’t help your cause. At his best, Centro was a 3:30 guy in an era when others were running 3:26-3:28(regardless of how suspect the doping was). To this day, the majority of fans believe Centro’s Olympic win to be a fluke that was not repeatable. And actually was never repeated. My money is on Hocker not making the Olympic final in 2028.
2) no one is arguing that doping in Africa isn’t widespread or prevalent. It is also widespread everywhere, including America. The implications that Koech could only run a 3:30 low for the win, in a race where Nuguse did 95% of the work for the field, is because he is cheating feels willfully dishonest. And that because he is African, he’s the only one. Calling out the low-grade racism was not absurd at all.
Ethan Strand ran the same race, similar time, finished a close second, and we celebrate. No one is questioning the fact that his best effort in the 1500m came in late May, where he ran a 3:33. Yesterday he had a 3 second improvement in two months time. No accusations or questioning of credibility. I’m fine with that. He should be celebrated for running a great race.
I probably should have led with that example. But my example of comparing Hocker to JK is just as valid. I’ll be very surprised if he wins again in a championship race or even at a diamond league event. I’ll be more surprised if he dips below 3:30 again in his career. It is much easier and believable for a professional(JK) to improve in the span of a year from 3:33/34 down to 3:30 in an opportunistic race. It becomes incredibly suspicious to watch someone(Hocker) who routinely runs 3:33/34, with a lifetime best of 3:30-mid somehow drop a 3:27 out of nowhere for a shocking upset. But hey, he’s American, and they have never been caught or exposed for being drug cheats in the modern era…..
Confused by this analysis of Hockers talent. By age 20 years 2 months, Hocker was 6th in the Olympics in 3:31.4. Kerr was more than a second slower 2 weeks before his 22nd birthday at Worlds. The races were similar as both guys simply ran as fast as they could. It’s no secret Hockers 2022-23 were cut down by injuries.
This post was edited 40 seconds after it was posted.
Great points. I certainly don't know the answer. Coaching is obviously fantastic today from a physical preparation standpoint, but I am not sure that the tactical coaching has kept pace. With the wind and heat at Haywood the odds of a frontrunner winning that race were exceptionally low. Agree that athletes could work together, but that is fraught with problems as you point out. I suspect the answer is in visualizing and practicing a very specific pace and then turn of pace at precise makers, say 1k to go and then 600 to go. Trying to run your own race within the race. It is obviously super difficult or it would be done more often, but that doesn't mean that there isn't room for tactical growth in this area. I am sure most soccer coaches thought the passing game was what it was until Guardiola came along for Barcelona.
People have been taking that approach for over 50 years in many different sports.
This is starting to get derailed from my original comment/point due to Rojo dying to glaze Hocker.
My main point was that Jonah Koech ran a good race for the win. It was far from an exceptional time and not outside the possibility of his natural talent. The progression from a 3:34 previous best last year to a 3:30 yesterday doesn’t raise the red flags that letsrun is suggesting. But because he’s an African born American, people are only going after Koech by claiming he is a cheater. He also is an 800m guy, who has been battling injuries over the years and sporadically races the 1500m. The race was set up well, the conditions were good, and he had the positioning and fitness to capitalize. There are some deep racial undertones and hypocrisies at play with these immediate accusations. If Koech had run the exact same time yesterday but finished 5th instead, not one person would be claiming that he cheated. He would be an afterthought.
Strand and Hocker are white, American born Americans and no one on letsrun is questioning Strands progression from 3:33 to 3:30 in two months after a long and grueling collegiate season. Again, from my previous post, I’m fine with that. If this kid drops a 3:28 high in Tokyo, alarms should definitely start going off.
Hocker has been limited to pedestrian times his entire career with some key wins at the collegiate level and the USA championships in a weak field. Out of nowhere, Hocker absolutely LIGHTS IT UP in Paris to become the 8th fastest in history, only to return to losing to 800m guys multiple times and failing to run faster than 3:30.37 in 2025. He’s been out kicked and hawked down. He’s very talented, no question. But not exceptional. And his Paris performance should be held with far more scrutiny given his performances before and after. 6 weeks before Paris he ran his lifetime best of 3:30.59, good for 78th all time in the 1500m. Leapfrogs to 8th all time to win gold in Paris. At this point, am I really questioning his talent and potential? Or questioning why so many people double down to defend this trajectory and turn a blind eye to a legitimate need for more scrutiny?
Athletics as a whole has a drug problem, American born Americans should not be excluded from the conversation.
Least thought out takes in letsrun history? It’s fine to disagree with what I said. It takes an intentional reduction of intelligence to resort to wild hyperbole like that.
1) Hocker at 21 was a good talent. Not a great talent. Kerr and Jakob at 21 were great. Hocker was good against other American talent that performed poorly on the world stage. Using the example of Hocker “silencing Centro” doesn’t help your cause. At his best, Centro was a 3:30 guy in an era when others were running 3:26-3:28(regardless of how suspect the doping was). To this day, the majority of fans believe Centro’s Olympic win to be a fluke that was not repeatable. And actually was never repeated. My money is on Hocker not making the Olympic final in 2028.
2) no one is arguing that doping in Africa isn’t widespread or prevalent. It is also widespread everywhere, including America. The implications that Koech could only run a 3:30 low for the win, in a race where Nuguse did 95% of the work for the field, is because he is cheating feels willfully dishonest. And that because he is African, he’s the only one. Calling out the low-grade racism was not absurd at all.
Ethan Strand ran the same race, similar time, finished a close second, and we celebrate. No one is questioning the fact that his best effort in the 1500m came in late May, where he ran a 3:33. Yesterday he had a 3 second improvement in two months time. No accusations or questioning of credibility. I’m fine with that. He should be celebrated for running a great race.
Gosh people are dense and will just go out of there way to try to racialize everything.
Strand did not PR by 3 seconds at USAs. Technically, yes he did but come on. He ran 3:33 in a college race he won by more than half a second.. Much like Koech last year, it was obvious he was much better than that.
Plus his pb coming in was 3:33 in name only. Indoors, Strand ran 3:48.32 in the mile which equates to a 3:31.35 1500. Then he won the B heat at Pre in 3:48 and won by a ton. The fact that he ended up running 3:30 isn't surprising at all. If he gets in a time trial, I'll be surprsied if he doesn't break 3:30.
I never said Koech was cheating but dopoing in distances in the US isn't nearly as widespread as it is in Kenay. That's a laughable assertion. 1) It's much easier to get PEDs in Kenya. And 2) If you get PEDs and make 20k, it's life changing. Here it's better to just get a minimum wage job. I think doping is most rampant in the sub-elite ranks in Kenya.
If Strand is a doper, he didn't start in May. He would have started before he went on fire on indoors. Nothing he's done this spring has been shocking after he ran 3:48/7:30 indoors.
Rojo, My very first comment was calling out the majority of other comments that flooded in within minutes of the race results. Go back and look. "tooth pick armed" "bobbleheads" "starvin marvins." Not sure if you intentionally chose to ignore those comments or simply did not see them before responding to my comment. But you've had ample time since then to read them.
I'm not dense. I'm also not making any of this up or racializing things out of thin air. go back and look. Every thread on letstrun following Koech's win has these comments. The guy won. had the biggest win in his career. ran it smart. 3:30.17 isn't an insanely fast time considering the way Nuguse paced the field and how well positioned Koech was coming in over the last 200m.
I don't think Strand was doping. Literally never implied it. Go back and reread what I wrote. This time do it slowly. Even ask another adult in the room to read it out loud if you are having trouble. Why is it that the majority of commenters in this thread are perfectly capable of putting Strands time and results within context of his fitness, race specific variables, and past progression to accept without question that he finished second with a 3 second improvement over the the 1500m? Your hypotheticals and tables do not change the fact that until this weekend, Strand had never run a 1500m faster than 3:33, so why argue? The example was simply contrasting the public's response to Ethan Strand vs Jonah Koech.
PEDs are easier to get in Kenya than America? So doctors in the US don't prescribe medications or hormones or steroids to professional or collegiate athletes because of a moral code? You can't buy any of these banned substances and masking agents online and have them discreetly shipped somewhere because the DEA is highly vigilant at shutting this down? American athletes aren't being granted TUE's at a growing rate for "asthma"?
Oh, and the report that got leaked about USADA's corruption right after last years Olympics and then was subsequentially redacted due to a journalist comping some tickets to The Masters, that was just a giant nothing burger? No way it could be a smoking gun that there continues to be corruption and financial gain within the organization?
