Conor Lott is going sub 14:40
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shot in the dark predications (too early but f**k it)
D1: Conor Lott and it’s not even close (sorry Zavaleta fans but he hasn’t had a great season).
D2: this is a difficult pick, Ben Fernandez is has the fastest returning time but him and Hunter haven’t had the best track season. Since I’m SJS biased I would want to say Isaac Abbott but I don’t think he’d be the first person who comes to mind to win state. I’d say Aidan Antonio can take it or it could be someone completely unknown. It’s definitely between Antonio, Abbott, or one of the Matilda Torres runners
D3: Since I’m SJS biased I really want to say Andres Lomeli takes it but same reason with Abbott, he’s not the first one to come to mind. Honestly, I’m rooting for Noel Huato to take that title- he’s the underdog.
D4: Honestly the weakest division coming into next season. Logan Letulle is the fastest returner but his track times are a little eh to put him in contention (this is not including Sigworth since he ran his 15:29 time at Palisades). A lot of NCS runners in his division have ran faster times such as the St Mary’s College duo of Tucker Presnell and Djali de Chalus. Honestly, I’m putting my money on Blake Sigworth.
D5: Olly O Connor, no questions91 -
I’m expecting SJS to show up a lot more this season. And if the Bilodeau rumors ARENT true, I’d have him somewhere within the top 10 for DII if he doesn’t burnout prior to states (ik Bilodeau has kind of been the controversial figure in the threads but you can’t deny that Bilodeau has had an impressive sophomore season and whether he leaves GB or stays, he is going to be one of the top runners in the state come his senior year)
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Hobby10k wrote:
coachy wrote:
OK you made it up, got it. I'm sure they will once again take the top teams from the CA State meet merge.
I agree with this. This year CA had very little travel and yet they still took an at large team from CA. This is almost certainly due to their performance being compared to historical times.
Glendora got in because they simply ran faster than California NXN teams did in the past at state.
The only time travel will come into play is if you run poorly at state (like 15:40+) but still somehow end up 3rd or 4th in the merge. But state meet team time will always matter more
And because they beat eventual autoqualifier Menlo (in 2025 most 3rd place teams from other regions didn’t beat any autoqualifiers)
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Husgale wrote:
Hobby10k wrote:
Not that it matters much, but Oaks Christian will be absolutely cooked with their projected 2026 roster and might not even make it through CIF prelims next year. Also a small shot at not even making CIF prelims to begin with since their league is getting competitive next year.
Crazy to go from State Div 4 Winner to potentially completely out of contention on the first day of postseason the following year, but I guess that's what happens when you have 5 studs and then absolutely no depth at all to fill in the the next year's roster.
At least Oaks Christian won the state title. Something no one can ever take away from them.
Yosemite boys will be in the similar situation too. Except they never won a state title. But they made podium in 2022&2023 and placed somewhat high in D5 in 2024. But all of their scorers are graduating, and they have many seniors at the top of JV too. They don’t even bring back many guys from their roster either, so they’ll likely be eliminated the first time that elimination happens
There’s a video about Oaks Christian’s historic season
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>>Glendora got in because they simply ran faster than California NXN teams did in the past at state.
We should be careful about using Cal specific historical data for comparing to other national teams in the current year. The Cal state meet isn't speed rated as high as it used to be. A 15:00 at the state meet used to be always worth at least a SR of at least 190, 2 years ago it was 189, last year it was 188.
Just 2 SR points is a big difference, that is 6 seconds per runner, so 30 seconds for a team, which is huge considering how close the teams are. And it is bigger than that the further in time you go back. Yes, speed ratings aren't perfect, but for current year comparisons at the end of the year (so we have enough national data), they are the best tool we have. I don't know how the NXN committee feels about them, but I hope they use it as one of the data points in the decision.60 -
WaitForMoreData wrote:
>>Glendora got in because they simply ran faster than California NXN teams did in the past at state.
We should be careful about using Cal specific historical data for comparing to other national teams in the current year. The Cal state meet isn't speed rated as high as it used to be. A 15:00 at the state meet used to be always worth at least a SR of at least 190, 2 years ago it was 189, last year it was 188.
Exactly. Not to mention that 188 was way too high in retrospect when looking at track times for the 3200 and nxn placements. It should probably be closer to 182.
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SJSGlaze wrote:
D3: Since I’m SJS biased I really want to say Andres Lomeli takes it but same reason with Abbott, he’s not the first one to come to mind. Honestly, I’m rooting for Noel Huato to take that title- he’s the underdog.
Any relation to Buchanan recent grad Elle Lomeli?
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Probably not, Lomeli is a common Latin American name.
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I think huato is gonna blow up next season
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not to mention that wrote:
WaitForMoreData wrote:
>>Glendora got in because they simply ran faster than California NXN teams did in the past at state.
We should be careful about using Cal specific historical data for comparing to other national teams in the current year. The Cal state meet isn't speed rated as high as it used to be. A 15:00 at the state meet used to be always worth at least a SR of at least 190, 2 years ago it was 189, last year it was 188.
Exactly. Not to mention that 188 was way too high in retrospect when looking at track times for the 3200 and nxn placements. It should probably be closer to 182.
Evolution of shoe technology helped with faster times.
At the end of the state meet, someone posted a video on here of Menlo wearing shoes that were unreleased at the time
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Evolution wrote:
not to mention that wrote:
Exactly. Not to mention that 188 was way too high in retrospect when looking at track times for the 3200 and nxn placements. It should probably be closer to 182.
Evolution of shoe technology helped with faster times.
At the end of the state meet, someone posted a video on here of Menlo wearing shoes that were unreleased at the time
Yes, the Hauser twins' father was a Nike Athlete back in the day and he got the team early access to Streakfly 2s.
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SJSGlaze wrote:
Conor Lott is going sub 14:40
who cares clearly it's not the same course anymore so we can't compare with past times. super shoes have changed it to being similar to running a 5k on a track.
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not to mention that wrote:
SJSGlaze wrote:
Conor Lott is going sub 14:40
who cares clearly it's not the same course anymore so we can't compare with past times. super shoes have changed it to being similar to running a 5k on a track.
sub 14:40 woodward 100+ place at nxn
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Bilodeau rumors seem to be true- he follows the official Jesuit hs account, along with their asb account, and their xc and track account- or at least that’s what I make of it
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This guy is winning D4 state 100%
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Early 2026 CA Commits
Summer Wilson -> Duke
Braelyn Combe -> Arkansas
Chloe Elbaz -> UCLA
Ava Decleve (Scott’s Valley) -> UCLA
Kyle Jakary -> Cal Poly100 -
Exactly.
He’s also been working out with the team for a few weeks. Friends have seen them on the bike path. The transfer is already through but CIF-SJS has yet to rule on any sit out period.18 -
Let's hope CIF SJS stands out to the ongoing Jesuit cheating. From getting kids who are older, to allowing them to push others in track races, to the blatant CIF rule breaking recruiting, CIF needs to send a strong message. If not, then it is time to create a private school division for these folks who pilfer from public schools.
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