Ingebrigtsen just toyed with all of Europe... (1500m)

You might be right about the Norwegian championships. But it wouldn't work for him at an international level.

This year is different than last where you had a large group of guys running 3:29-low/mid in Oslo behind Jakob. Kerr and Nuguse are fitter, Tim and Jakob seem to be about the same. There are even more 3:30-3 guys in Europe than last year (emerging French, Belgian guys jump out) but the dropoff from Kerr is large with Habz, Mario and Nordas all a second or more off last year.

Kerr showed there is time to rally, but his system seems to be more peak-centric than most.

One could argue that 1500m would suit Wightman better than mile, and he could probably perform in the 1500m slightly better than the conversion. Also 1:44.10 is not shabby at all, so I am putting him slightly above Habz and Nader. And his WC gold adds extra credibility too.

Nader and Habz got knocked down a couple of spots for me after the finals in Rome. At this rate Pallitsch is going to beat them both in Paris.

Nordas is more likely than not to miss the final in Paris. Would not bet on him this year.

He’s black but American, so he passes.

Jakob is confirmed for Monaco 1500m. Curious to see if he can emulate the 3:27.14 he ran similarly last year a month out before worlds in Silesia.

Sounds exciting, but I can't seem to find the source where it says Jakob is confirmed for the Monaco 1500m this year. Where does it say?

Jakob confirmed for the Monaco 1500m -link:

tv2.no

Jakob Ingebrigtsen løper i Monaco

Per Tho Angell

Livestudio for TV 2 Sport - siste nytt i dag

Open link

Google translate:

THE PLAN IS READY: Jakob Ingebrigtsen is going back to his favorite track in Monaco. Photo: Vegard Grøtt / BILDBYRÅN

After being in the thinking box a week after the double triumphs during the EC in Rome, Jakob Ingebrigtsen has now nailed down the plan for the Olympics in Paris.
Earlier in the week, it was announced that Ingebrigtsen will run 1,500 meters during the National Championships on his home track in Sandnes on the last weekend in June. Now his agent confirms that there will also be a Diamond League event before the golden boy takes Paris.
- In addition to the Nationals, Jakob runs 1,500 meters in Monaco, confirms Daniel Wessfeldt to TV 2.
Ingebrigtsen's wife, Elisabeth Asserson Ingebrigtsen, revealed on Instagram that she is due at the end of June. So hopefully Jakob Ingebrigtsen will have time to spend a couple of days in Sandnes before the convention in the principality on 12 July.
Until the National champs at home, Ingebrigtsen will train at altitude in St. Moritz, Switzerland. And he will also stay at altitude until he travels to the Olympics in Paris.
The track in Monaco is known for being fast, and Ingebrigtsen has run several of his best races at the iconic stadium, which is located right next to the luxury yacht harbor in the principality.
He thus copies the gold recipe from the Tokyo Olympics. Also that time, the event in Monaco was his last before the Olympic seriousness took hold.

I don´t know why you think Nuguse is fitter than last year where he ran low 3:29 in Oslo. His Bowerman Mile time converts to a mid 3:29 in the 1500m.

Further: I don´t think Tim is at the same level as Jakob. Jakob´s Bowerman Mile converts to high 3:28 in the 1500m so in reality he is almost 1 sec faster here. You have also stated yourself that Jakob wasn´t fully recovered from the Bowerman Mile in Oslo, probably partly because of jetlag and a long travel air travel.

I think Jakob is at least low 3:28 now after the European champs and I also think that Kerr is at least at that level.

These 2 are the clear top runners at this moment in my opinion.

I would like to see Jakob go sub 3:27 in Monaco. That would give Kerr something to consider.

If he doesn´t run that fast in Monaco I think he will try to run a fast 1500m and/ or mile if he comes healthy through the OG.

Well we were discussing the norwegian championships not international competitions.

You misinterpreted me. I was comparing 2023 Tim to 2024 Tim not Jakob. Nuguse ran that Pre time ahead in the schedule from Oslo. So yea I think he is faster.

How many world championships have Habz, Nader, and Gourley, combined, to their name?

Wightman is among four current 1500m guys with World or Olympic championships who are close to their top level, with Jakob, Josh, and Tim.

Is he close to his top level I guess is what we’ll see? 3:47.83 in a drag race time trial is a nice time, but let’s not forget he ran 2:13.88 for the 1000, 1:43.65 to win a DL 800 and of course 3:29.23 with an impressive final 300 in a championship final. If you’re buying Wightman stock, you’re banking on him hitting a new level in championship season like in 2022. If you’re skeptical, you’re wondering why he comes out of training runs an impressive race or two, but doesn’t seem to hit a new high-water mark after that.

You were specifically referring to the Norwegian championships but I thought we were discussing Jakob's general tactical approach. But what you are effectively conceding by confining the discussion to the national championships is that a dawdle followed by a one-lap sprint would only work for Jakob against inferior competition. I would agree with that.

I think the top guys are all basically capable of a 50 flat/low in a centro style dawdle, including Jakob. it would be about positioning.

Question for anybody good on track history: who has broken 50 on a last lap sprint in a 1500/mile?

I think people need to re-watch this race to see what Jakob is capable of for a full lap, 300, 200, 100, and even 50 meter burst. He ran something like a 51.7 in a 3:35 race. In the process, he passed around 8 guys using the outside of lane 2 or inside of lane 3. I believe the last 250 meters or so was all in lane 2 or worse. He stopped his momentum with around 110 to go to do multiple waves to the crowd, before bursting again the last 80. there were noticeable gear changes multiple times on that lap.

that may have been the fittest he ever was. It's also possible that he worked harder than he should have, and that cost him in the finals, along with whatever sickness he had.

This was just an incredible last lap.

for your viewing pleasure:

watch it and pick apart my analysis. maybe im out of my element here.

This was impressive. Worth noting he ran the whole first turn in lane 1, and most of his wide running was done on the straightaway. He got onto the lane line/inner part of lane 2 for the second turn. 3:34.99 is not really a jog either — it's slow compared to a paced race, but pretty much Jakob and Kerr were the only guys in that field fit enough that the difference between their maximal final 400 sprint in this race and a 3:38+ one would not be a big deal. I suspect guys like Hocker and Reynold Cheruiyot (at their best) would be able to be much more competitive with their last laps in a truly slow race. So that's why you won't see Josh or Jakob allowing it to be a complete jog through 1100 at least in the final.

It's somewhat interesting to think how a Rio type race would shake out with these guys. I think Jakob's tactics are pretty good, so he wouldn't be completely out of it like some might think. But he may end up in the Makhloufi spot if Wightman got to the front, and then you'd have to account for some of the best closers (Reynold, Hocker, Habz, Gourley) flying the last 100 a la Willis. That is of course if they got their tactics right with Hocker being the only consistent one tactically.