Finally -- Clarity in Women's 5k for US Olympic Trials

She could gamble and wait for the final, expecting to jump on the train Valby is pulling.

But of course, if Valby were to bag the 5000m final in prep for the 10000m, then the 5000m final will probably be slow and tactical, unless those without the standard (and particularly those without sufficient ranking) get out and push the pace.

I just don’t see her gambling and taking that chance. At least if she gets the standard tonight, then on Monday she can “race” for the spot and not worry about time at that point and just go for top-3.

How can anyone possibly "race for the standard" if it is going to be 85 degrees during the race?

Without any actual insight to Tuohy's fitness, I would say she should just qualify for the final tonight if she's able. It's her first race in 7 months and hope it's close to 15 flat to serve as her worst score on rankings. Then just race the final and assume it will end up pretty fast like last year for those making the team.

Her first result is her nationals race from last year at 1164 with her place bonus. She gets no bonus for prelims so 15:10 would put her at 1142 for that race. To get in the rankings quota currently she'll need at least an 1160 average. An 1174 score in the final would be enough to get her there. Factoring the 50 point bonus for 3rd and she needs a 15:20 or faster in the final to make the team. 3rd place in 15 flat in the final would give her 1213 points in the rankings meaning she could go as slow as 15:32 in the prelim and still possible make the team.

One lap at a time. I feel sorry for you if you feel 85 degrees is crippling heat stopping you from anything in the 5K.

Right. The major contenders will have qualified either via standard or ranking. There are few issues here, if any, for any athlete with a realistic chance of making the team.

I think Schweitzer could potentially be dropped off a hot pace but if it’s slower she outkicks Valby. 1 esp 2 cranny 3 Karissa 4 Valby. I do believe Valby will bounce back and finish second in the 10

This seems like the most likely scenario if Cranny and Schweizer are in top form.

If they’re not at their best, could see Valby or a couple of others squeezing by them.

It is very common for sponsors to require athletes to participate in certain meets.

If Valby makes the final(it could not happen but most likely won’t) she will run 14:45 at least and be top 3. She has no kick in fast races like most runners if the pace is slow I think you all will be surprised all that cross training she will kick like a beast

I too am interested in this logic. Let's assume that heat one runs 10th place at 15:25. What does Tuohy then do in heat 2? How about Leachman or Cranny? What do they do if 10th was 15:45? Are you suggesting that they all run slower in the 2nd scenario? Does everyone run slower in the 15:45 scenario? It isn't a team heat. Each person is out for themself. What if 10th was 15:15? Does everyone then run all out to break 15:15 even if their PR is 15:30? I think most runners just run for top 6 regardless of what happened in heat 1. The slowest people wnat a very slow race to give themselves a chance to move on and the fastest people want a slow pace becuase they want to be top 3 in the final and they have a 1500 or 10k to run later in the meet.

She would need the standard correct? 4 have the cut.

It's incredible that there are people on this thread that are actually trying to make the case for Tuohy making the Olympic team. LOL Completely delusional! Disturbingly delusional. NOBODY is going to run the 14:52 standard in the prelims, not even close. In Trials history, only one runner has ever broken 15:01 - a juiced-up Regina Jacobs in 2000. Abby Cooper crushed the field in the prelims last time to get the standard and only ran 15:07. The final was won in 15:27 and the second best time of the entire Trials was only 15:23. Even a full-on assault by Valby is not going to go sub-14:52 in the prelims. There is a MUCH higher probability that Tuohy doesn't even make the final than there is of making the team. She's the 18 seed and 16 go to the finals.

It's crazy that there are people who actually think Tuohy has a very good chance of making the team while people are constantly making arguments why Valby has no chance. Valby is the 5 seed in the 5000 and 4 seed in the 10000. She has won 6 NCAA titles and broken at least three NCAA records in the past 12 months. Tuohy hasn't even run a single race since she got rocked at NCAA Cross more than seven months ago.

But yeah, Tuohy is a lock for the team and Valby has zero chance. Delusional. Better have your excuses ready because you may need to rationalize why she didn't advance tonight. You just better hope she beats an injured Leachman.

I can’t tell if you’re trolling. haven’t seen anyone saying this on here…

I think it’s pretty much agreed upon that Tuohy is likely not going to be in the best shape, given that she hasn’t raced in 7 months. I don’t think anyone is placing those kinds of expectations on her.

Nor have I seen anyone say Valby has zero chance; she is coming in with a lot of well-deserved hype.

I didn’t know anyone who said Tuohy is a lock for the team. Most would think being out most of last year due to injury/sickness had been a frustrating and humbling experience. If Tuohy can overcome, her best bet is 2028 Olympics. For this trial, Tuohy’s chance of making the final is 50/50, and making the team is less than 1%. Valby’s chances are actually ten times better. Valby didn’t even sweat during the NCAA finals. If not being hold back by her coaches (she made funny face about it in the middle of race), she could easily get under 14:30. I also think Valby can run under 14 if she can increase her weekly mileage to 30.

If you are wondering why people talk more about Tuohy and pulling for her no matter Al the odds against her, I actually think her work ethic and training philosophy rhyme better with most runners. Not many people can run cross country on an arc trainer like Valby is doing. Good for her, but no thanks. We love running because it is an enjoyable experience.

Only if she increases something else.

Anyway, will be nice to see Tuohy compete and make her pro debut.

I don't think there has ever been an American who could get "easily get under 14:30". As far as breaking 14 on 30 (or 80) mpw well that would make her the BEST EVER, right?

Which is why Valbymania on an arc trainer is unstoppable. She was mocking the field and making funny faces all the time during the NCAA finals. The only people that can slow Valby down is her coach.