Hopefully Vallivue gets speed rated. Mt View will have 2, Rocky 3 with one pretty uncertain, Boise will have one and Timberline will have 2.
That would be great, although the speed ratings would be even more unreliable than they typically are, because the course is long, and my son won't know that it was.
Hopefully Vallivue gets speed rated. Mt View will have 2, Rocky 3 with one pretty uncertain, Boise will have one and Timberline will have 2.
That would be great, although the speed ratings would be even more unreliable than they typically are, because the course is long, and my son won't know that it was.
For Bill Meylen’s dad, you don’t know much about his speed ratings. They cover if a course is a little long, or a little short. They are meant to make all factors of a cross country course equal.
I’m going to guess that Boise, Rocky, Timberline, and Mountain View don’t average as fast as they did here next week at Firman or even within 10 seconds. Since this course is apparently 120-180 meters long, it should run fairly close to the same times for the more difficult but accurately measured course.
If they really accounted for distance, then 4-6 points per runner would be added. They look pretty good for most kids. A random 4-6 points for everyone would be some serious data inflation.
Best speed rating for CDA/Rocky athletes. Both teams have only had two meets speed trated, Woodbridge and Farragut for CDA, Jerome and Tiger Grizz for Rocky.
I still stand by the idea that those are on the low end. Nothing more than 2-3 points, but Cody Lucas and Jack Sheesley are clearly in better form than Wyatt Carr, despite the speed ratings saying otherwise
I still stand by the idea that those are on the low end. Nothing more than 2-3 points, but Cody Lucas and Jack Sheesley are clearly in better form than Wyatt Carr, despite the speed ratings saying otherwise
Or there’s the real possibility that Cody Lucas and Jack Sheesley were racing each other and not gunning for the fastest possible time, and would have better performances in a race they don’t have to do all of the work in and we’re getting dragged in.
2-3 points would be still be huge increases for the entire field. Is it more likely that everyone had a much better day than they have had all season or that the leaders aren’t necessarily maxing out their scores? There are already boys that had their best days by 4-5 points… you’re saying that experienced guys had days that were 18-24 seconds better than anything else they have run this season when you account for every aspect?
Best speed rating for CDA/Rocky athletes. Both teams have only had two meets speed trated, Woodbridge and Farragut for CDA, Jerome and Tiger Grizz for Rocky.
I still stand by the idea that those are on the low end. Nothing more than 2-3 points, but Cody Lucas and Jack Sheesley are clearly in better form than Wyatt Carr, despite the speed ratings saying otherwise
Speed ratings are not determined by which runner is a better runner or who is in better form.
Basically, your speed is determined by how fast you run a race relative to everybody else ... How fast you run is determined by how fast everybody else runs ... The key is time differences between each and every runner which gets correlated with what they done in the past both individually and collectively in classified groups.
It is an adaptation of thoroughbred horse racing Beyer Speed Figures (and if you bet horses like I do, you know what speed figures are) ... Cross country has many more data points which allows additional statistic derivation ... It is time-consuming and tedious.
An example an XC speed rating which people hate ... A large field of runners runs an invitational race and sees their speed figures ... The following week, the exact same field of runners runs a race on the exact same course under the same conditions and everybody runs 15 seconds faster ..... Everybody expects the speed ratings will go up ... BUT the ratings stay exactly the same BECAUSE the relative speed between runners (time differences between runners of previously determined speed) did not change. It is a concept used for betting horses.
There has been some conjecture about the age of CDA and how they would drop off next year. They are returning 4 really solid guys and then a 5th that had a 174 recording at state cross last year. 183, 174, 163, 163, 156 is better than any team outside of Rocky this year and Rocky loses 5 of their top 7. I think it's reasonable to guess that CDA might have 4 guys returning with 170+ speed ratings heading into next year with two potentially at 180+.
Rocky returns 176, 169, 148, 148, 145, 141, 140 for next year. Certainly a lot to work with and Jeff Howard is a good coach, but that's a huge gap to bridge.
There has been some conjecture about the age of CDA and how they would drop off next year. They are returning 4 really solid guys and then a 5th that had a 174 recording at state cross last year. 183, 174, 163, 163, 156 is better than any team outside of Rocky this year and Rocky loses 5 of their top 7. I think it's reasonable to guess that CDA might have 4 guys returning with 170+ speed ratings heading into next year with two potentially at 180+.
Rocky returns 176, 169, 148, 148, 145, 141, 140 for next year. Certainly a lot to work with and Jeff Howard is a good coach, but that's a huge gap to bridge.
Next year will be a rebuilding year more than anything for Rocky Mountain, but in 2026 they will be competitive again
There has been some conjecture about the age of CDA and how they would drop off next year. They are returning 4 really solid guys and then a 5th that had a 174 recording at state cross last year. 183, 174, 163, 163, 156 is better than any team outside of Rocky this year and Rocky loses 5 of their top 7. I think it's reasonable to guess that CDA might have 4 guys returning with 170+ speed ratings heading into next year with two potentially at 180+.
Rocky returns 176, 169, 148, 148, 145, 141, 140 for next year. Certainly a lot to work with and Jeff Howard is a good coach, but that's a huge gap to bridge.
Next year will be a rebuilding year more than anything for Rocky Mountain, but in 2026 they will be competitive again
Biggest thing they will have an issue with is that they will be losing the 176 and 169 for 2026. Their sophomore class is the 148, 148, 145 and then they have a grouping of guys around 138-140 that are freshmen and sophomores. Rocky has the fourth best top 3 for their sophomore class out of the teams listed above. They have way more depth to counter what looks like will be 3 top heavy teams in 2026, though.
- Borah is going to be legit… not next year, this year. - Rocky is in a class of its own even with Goggins having a bad day. CDA is better, but Rocky is clearly #2. - There is a huge gap between Boise and the next team. - Eagle got hammered at 4 and 5. They are still missing Taggart, who was their #2 at the first meet, so at this point I’m guessing he’s injured. - Timberline was pretty far back as well. Only beat Eagle by 7 with Eagle missing a huge scorer. - Centennial was way far back. Doesn’t look like it’s going to be their year. - Rigby and Highland came to play. I would say the top 4 is CDA, Rocky, MV, Boise then a grouping of Rigby, Highland, Timberline, and Eagle. Maybe Borah in that group.
District III qualifiers will be Rocky, MV, Boise, Timberline, Eagle, Meridian and Borah. Lock it in.
Who are the Idaho HS kids who have run at NCAA D1 nationals in XC since 2017?
Halladay, Machu, Russell. Anyone else?
Morgan Nokes ran for UVU at nationals last year and finished 68th (ahead of Halladay). She ran at Mountain View with Halladay but wasn't a standout in high school.
plugging all of the times in together (I know it's not perfect bc afternoon races were sweltering) gives team scores of: RM- 53 Boise- 80 Highland- 140 T-Line- 163 Rigby- 180 Eagle- 184 Meridian- 185 Borah- 207
Rocky maybe scores 45-48 if Goggins has a more normal day, but there are guys on each team that had off days, so if you started doing that the gaps probably end up staying about the same anyways. I don't think there are any major missing pieces other than Taggart for Eagle. Colley is missing for Timberline but that's maybe a 5-10 point swing, not the 40 point swing that Taggart is.
Removing the non-District III schools gives scores of: