I wouldn’t weight a couple of those fast 1600 times so highly that you have on that list. Cross country is a different beast. There are more than just those that you’ve highlighted.
I know there are more. I just listed some of them, not all
I think many of you guys are underestimating St. Francis High School (Mountain View). The girls team there is returning ALL of their state squad scorers from 2023 in addition to 2 other girls who last year ran 19:01 at Woodward Park 5K and 19:46 (but she ran a 5:10 1600m this track season). I looked at last years State Merge results, and they move from 9th to 2nd in the state ranking (behind JSerra) by judging the top returning 5 scorers alone.
I think many of you guys are underestimating St. Francis High School (Mountain View). The girls team there is returning ALL of their state squad scorers from 2023 in addition to 2 other girls who last year ran 19:01 at Woodward Park 5K and 19:46 (but she ran a 5:10 1600m this track season). I looked at last years State Merge results, and they move from 9th to 2nd in the state ranking (behind JSerra) by judging the top returning 5 scorers alone.
And this school’s boys team went to NXN in 2017 and got 9th there in their first outing
On the girls' side, here are the returning scorers and my personal projections in the merge of returning girls at the top schools:
Buchanan: Health issues last season, but they're stacked as always and have 2 outstanding new Freshmen girls coming in (continued line of little sisters!). Assuming their former top runner (Lomelli) who DNF'd at 2023 State will finish 15th in the merge (she has top 10 potential), they take back the D1 State title from Santiago and will be the top seed, headed to NXN per the usual. It feel like these girls should be graduated by now... but they're all back, and Torosian, Buckley and Sundgren (9th) will all be back in 2026 also. Returning Scorers: 13/26/37/40/100 ---TOTAL: 216 (Projection: 140)
J Serra: Rumors have floated for months of a top athlete leaving, but they'll be fine since they may have the deepest squad in the state. They return all of their other scorers from 2023 and have an outstanding incoming Freshman (Streadbeck). Watch for Reese Holley to improve on a great Freshman year, and last year's transfers Elbaz and Polay to gain even more confidence. Returning Scorers: 9/20/21/80/91 --- TOTAL: 221 (Projection: 150)
Santiago: The defending D1 State Champs return all but Siana, and have a strong freshman who was injured late last year (Hill) that will need to fill that crucial #5 spot. Their #6 and #7 XC runners were on the #2 4x800 team in the State, so one of them may step up. Combe may push Blade to be even faster. Scary. Taylor Davis was All-State also, and has gained footspeed with her 800 times. Those 3 are the best 1-2-3 combination in the state, and that whole team clearly loves to compete together. 5 of their top 8 were Frosh or Soph last year. Returning Scorers: 2/10/17/66/100 --- TOTAL: 195 (Projection: 155)
Trabuco Hills: Barker has a solid supporting cast, but they're only 4 deep. Watts, Desormeau and Bayles have shown massive improvement. Watch for them to push hard for an upset of Santiago at CIF, but they lost 3 seniors last year. There will be a lot of pressure on unproven JV girls to give their top 4 a boost. Returning Scorers: 3/15/33/48/100 ---- TOTAL: 199 (Projection: 175)
Ventura: Sadie will be Sadie... but she might be distracted by her Olympic dreams, and may not want to go back to that muddy mess in Oregon. She clearly loves her teammates and they've all had an amazing track season together, so she might want to help them get to NXN as a team. True, Sax and Curtis joined her as the top 4x800 team in the State, and they're all returning. If one of their Juniors steps up, they might get that team berth to NXN. Returning Scorers: 1/24/60/63/100 ---- TOTAL: 248 (Projection: 185)
Others to watch: Cathedral Catholic: 5 of their 7 return from their D3 State Championship team. Each of them were 9th or 10th graders. Watch for them to make a big leap. Montgomery returns Hanne Thomsen, along with Kittelstrom and Lacefield who were All-State in D3. If their sophomores develop this year, they could sneak in to the mix.
On the girls' side, here are the returning scorers and my personal projections in the merge of returning girls at the top schools:
Buchanan: Health issues last season, but they're stacked as always and have 2 outstanding new Freshmen girls coming in (continued line of little sisters!). Assuming their former top runner (Lomelli) who DNF'd at 2023 State will finish 15th in the merge (she has top 10 potential), they take back the D1 State title from Santiago and will be the top seed, headed to NXN per the usual. It feel like these girls should be graduated by now... but they're all back, and Torosian, Buckley and Sundgren (9th) will all be back in 2026 also. Returning Scorers: 13/26/37/40/100 ---TOTAL: 216 (Projection: 140)
J Serra: Rumors have floated for months of a top athlete leaving, but they'll be fine since they may have the deepest squad in the state. They return all of their other scorers from 2023 and have an outstanding incoming Freshman (Streadbeck). Watch for Reese Holley to improve on a great Freshman year, and last year's transfers Elbaz and Polay to gain even more confidence. Returning Scorers: 9/20/21/80/91 --- TOTAL: 221 (Projection: 150)
Santiago: The defending D1 State Champs return all but Siana, and have a strong freshman who was injured late last year (Hill) that will need to fill that crucial #5 spot. Their #6 and #7 XC runners were on the #2 4x800 team in the State, so one of them may step up. Combe may push Blade to be even faster. Scary. Taylor Davis was All-State also, and has gained footspeed with her 800 times. Those 3 are the best 1-2-3 combination in the state, and that whole team clearly loves to compete together. 5 of their top 8 were Frosh or Soph last year. Returning Scorers: 2/10/17/66/100 --- TOTAL: 195 (Projection: 155)
Trabuco Hills: Barker has a solid supporting cast, but they're only 4 deep. Watts, Desormeau and Bayles have shown massive improvement. Watch for them to push hard for an upset of Santiago at CIF, but they lost 3 seniors last year. There will be a lot of pressure on unproven JV girls to give their top 4 a boost. Returning Scorers: 3/15/33/48/100 ---- TOTAL: 199 (Projection: 175)
Ventura: Sadie will be Sadie... but she might be distracted by her Olympic dreams, and may not want to go back to that muddy mess in Oregon. She clearly loves her teammates and they've all had an amazing track season together, so she might want to help them get to NXN as a team. True, Sax and Curtis joined her as the top 4x800 team in the State, and they're all returning. If one of their Juniors steps up, they might get that team berth to NXN. Returning Scorers: 1/24/60/63/100 ---- TOTAL: 248 (Projection: 185)
Others to watch: Cathedral Catholic: 5 of their 7 return from their D3 State Championship team. Each of them were 9th or 10th graders. Watch for them to make a big leap. Montgomery returns Hanne Thomsen, along with Kittelstrom and Lacefield who were All-State in D3. If their sophomores develop this year, they could sneak in to the mix.
Snubbing St. Francis (MV) girls from your Top 7 team list is wild given the fact they have finished #4-#9 at Clovis/State Merge in the last 2 years and again, return all of their scorers from last year. Most of the schools on your list lose some of their scorers and some aren’t even 5-runners deep!
In 2017 they only had one senior when they took 9th at NXN. And in the 2018 preseason, people were saying they were going to be the best in CA and get top 3 or top 5 at NXN, and things like that, but then they ended up not making NXN in 2018, and they had a lot of seniors that year.
Snubbing St. Francis (MV) girls from your Top 7 team list is wild given the fact they have finished #4-#9 at Clovis/State Merge in the last 2 years and again, return all of their scorers from last year. Most of the schools on your list lose some of their scorers and some aren’t even 5-runners deep!
You clearly have a bias and an agenda to promote SF here. There are many other teams that are worthy of discussion way before their name should be mentioned. It’s trivial to keep talking about them in this thread. Bias derails a real conversation.
Snubbing St. Francis (MV) girls from your Top 7 team list is wild given the fact they have finished #4-#9 at Clovis/State Merge in the last 2 years and again, return all of their scorers from last year. Most of the schools on your list lose some of their scorers and some aren’t even 5-runners deep!
You clearly have a bias and an agenda to promote SF here. There are many other teams that are worthy of discussion way before their name should be mentioned. It’s trivial to keep talking about them in this thread. Bias derails a real conversation.
Forgive any bias, but let’s not be overly hostile and dismissive of my contribution to the conversation and act like there is no possibility where St. Francis finishes a top 7 team or so. They’ve been consistent the last few years and I wanted to highlight what I thought was an unjustified omission from the Top 7 list.
Forgive any bias, but let’s not be overly hostile and dismissive of my contribution to the conversation and act like there is no possibility where St. Francis finishes a top 7 team or so. They’ve been consistent the last few years and I wanted to highlight what I thought was an unjustified omission from the Top 7 list.
Point taken on my dismissiveness… but having a debate with someone with bias is flawed from the start… especially when you say that excluding your child’s 2nd tier team from his/her seemingly thoughtful and balanced analysis was “wild”.
Watch for the ML King girls to go deep into CIF if all of their opponents have the guts to refuse to compete against them for having a boy on their team.
I pray that his biological female teammates will refuse to run with him.
Watch for the ML King girls to go deep into CIF if all of their opponents have the guts to refuse to compete against them for having a boy on their team.
I pray that his biological female teammates will refuse to run with him.
Watch for the ML King girls to go deep into CIF if all of their opponents have the guts to refuse to compete against them for having a boy on their team.
I pray that his biological female teammates will refuse to run with him.
Save. Girls. Sports.
This is getting out of hand
If there was just one boy racing against girls in the US and stealing glory and opportunities from them with their born physical advantages, it would be out of hand. There are many right now. Lia...errrr...Will Thomas' loss in court should establish precedence that all others should follow.
What are the chances that Mountain View (CCS) or Bellarmine CP (CCS) podium in Division 1?
Here are my latest projections for California merge . If it makes you feel better, I put St. Francis/Mtn. View in there. There's a huge gap from #6 down to them, but they should be much better than Cathedral Catholic, so maybe I should have mentioned them in my top 7:
The only Bellarmine I know of is in Washington. Do they go under another name?
What are the chances that Mountain View (CCS) or Bellarmine CP (CCS) podium in Division 1?
Here are my latest projections for California merge . If it makes you feel better, I put St. Francis/Mtn. View in there. There's a huge gap from #6 down to them, but they should be much better than Cathedral Catholic, so maybe I should have mentioned them in my top 7:
The only Bellarmine I know of is in Washington. Do they go under another name?
7? St. Francis Mtn View 47 70 92 100 125 TOTAL: 434
Bellarmine is the school that took 5th in the merge at the CIF boys state meet in 2019 with no seniors. They had Colin Peattie and Nolan & Galen Topper that year.
