Same course. The bar is being raised.
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Temp was about 20 degrees cooler than normal. Caldwell is always super fast, it’s just the surface of the sun usually.
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Probably at Hole in the Wall. I think Timberline is going.
I think power rankings for 5A SIC has to go Boise, Rocky, Centennial, Timberline, Eagle or Mt. View for the boys. I guess Capital would be the 7th team going to state.
For the girls, its clearly Boise, Rocky, Timberline (they were missing some girls, it looked like) or Owyhee, Mountain View, Eagle and probably Capital again.00 -
If Rocky Mountain somehow beats CDA sometime during the regular season and CDA gets top 2 at NXR and Rocky gets 3rd, this will give the committee a reason to give Rocky Mountain an at-large bid to NXN.
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Yoozoi wrote:
If Rocky Mountain somehow beats CDA sometime during the regular season and CDA gets top 2 at NXR and Rocky gets 3rd, this will give the committee a reason to give Rocky Mountain an at-large bid to NXN.
In terms of an Idaho team getting a third pace bid, it might nave more to do with Jesuit, Seattle Prep, Crater, and other top NW schools looking great when they leave the region. If 1, 2, and 4 all look at least top 10-15 nationally, it improves the odds three would get it.
Not that I know how they really do it.
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Yoozoi wrote:
If Rocky Mountain somehow beats CDA sometime during the regular season and CDA gets top 2 at NXR and Rocky gets 3rd, this will give the committee a reason to give Rocky Mountain an at-large bid to NXN.
Rocky doesn't travel to any big meets, so their only shot to do it is at State.
Really, CDA needs to have a similar showing against Timberline to whatever Rocky does the most recent against them. Assuming Landon is back for Bob Firman, they likely have to put at least 2 in front of Wil Ihmels, and all 5 in front of their #2. I definitely think that they could do that, and it's more likely they put 4 in front of Wil Ihmels and 6 in front of Timberline's 2.
Remember that the big question for CDA was if they could find a 5. They appear to not only have a 5 but have a 6 that's on par with Rocky's 5 and 6. They do get beat at 1 and 2, but they are looking like they are a ton better at 3 and 4, and the point difference at 1 and 2 is so low that it doesn't really make a huge difference.
Also, finding Parker Goggins is nice. Rocky has historically run a little slower (~10 seconds, some guys as much as 40 seconds) on average at Firman. If that holds true, they would be looking at ~15:33, 16:14, 16:15, 16:30, 16:35, 16:39, 16:39. That would be good for 222 points last year, around 7th place. If Landon is back and can win it or place 2nd, Rocky would be around 4th. With Herriman, Trabuco Hills, Timpanagos, Boise, Seattle Prep, Farmington, and Skyline of Utah all coming, I think that somewhere between 4th and 7th is a realistic landing spot for Rocky. Finishing 7th or worse would be a disaster for any NXN chances (honestly probably kills their shot if they finish worse than 4th with Landon, they just don't have another shot to impress). They would probably need to win state over CDA if they didn't grab one of the auto spots and have CDA get one of the auto spots.
Exempting State and Inland Empire, which are stupidly fast courses as evidenced by the times, Rocky's top guys that ran at Caldwell last year:
Cody Lucas- fastest race at Caldwell, 37 seconds slower at Firman.
Keith- 2nd fastest race, ran 7 seconds faster at Bugtown, also a very fast course, 14 seconds slower at Firman.
Hyrum Tuft- fastest race of the season including Inland Empire, 38 seconds slower at Firman.
Reece Miller- ran 12 seconds faster than his Caldwell time the rest of the season, 10 seconds slower at Firman.
Jerry Duffin- fastest race of the season, 27 seconds slower at Firman.
Sam Jensen- ran 2 seconds faster, 37 seconds slower at Firman.
Porter Carlson- ran 14 seconds faster the rest of the season, 18 seconds slower at Firman.10 -
Rocky's best friends right now are Boise, Timberline, Eagle, and Mountain View. All 4 of those teams are traveling to big meets and Rocky will race them at Firman, districts, and state down the stretch.
Really, the best thing would be if they continue to dominate Eagle and Eagle has a great showing at Woodbridge since Eagle will race a ton of teams from out of the region. Eagle doesn't have to place high, just race a lot faster there. All of the Utah schools coming to Firman help them a lot, too.10 -
justboise? wrote:
Yoozoi wrote:
If Rocky Mountain somehow beats CDA sometime during the regular season and CDA gets top 2 at NXR and Rocky gets 3rd, this will give the committee a reason to give Rocky Mountain an at-large bid to NXN.
With Herriman, Trabuco Hills, Timpanagos, Boise, Seattle Prep, Farmington, and Skyline of Utah all coming, I think that somewhere between 4th and 7th is a realistic landing spot for Rocky. Finishing 7th or worse would be a disaster for any NXN chances (honestly probably kills their shot if they finish worse than 4th with Landon, they just don't have another shot to impress). They would probably need to win state over CDA if they didn't grab one of the auto spots and have CDA get one of the auto spots.
I mixed up Skyline and Skyridge. Orem is on Dyestat's watchlist, though, and they are coming, as is Woods Cross. Dana Hills is also coming.
Orem, Woods Cross, Dana Hills, Trabuco Hills, Herriman, Boise, Seattle Prep, Rocky Mountain, Star Valley, Idaho Falls have all been on some sort of watch list going into this season between Dyestat, Milesplit, and Tullyrunners and will all be at Firman.
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Speed ratings for Caldwell out.
Boys Varsity - Top Team
2 Cody Lucas 11 Rocky Mountain 15:22.4 177.53 178
9 Pierce Richardson 12 Rocky Mountain 16:04.7 163.43 16310 Sam Jensen 12 Rocky Mountain 16:05.6 163.13 163
14 Reece Miller 12 Rocky Mountain 16:21.0 158.00 158
15 Parker Goggins 11 Rocky Mountain 16:25.1 156.63 157
16 Thomas Kurtz 10 Rocky Mountain 16:29.1 155.30 155
17 Jacob Thomas 11 Rocky Mountain 16:29.9 155.03 155
1 Hyrum Tuft 10 Rocky Mountain 16:35.0 153.33 153 -JV
2 Porter Carlson 12 Rocky Mountain 16:58.1 145.63 146 -JV
4 Max Beeler 11 Rocky Mountain 17:00.9 144.70 145 -JV
Stadtlander lead the way with 182. 12 boys at 160 or above.
For girls:
2 Chloe Pollock 11 Rocky Mountain 18:52.5 107.50 1085 Belle Draney 12 Rocky Mountain 19:08.0 102.33 102
7 Brighton Heywood 12 Rocky Mountain 19:10.7 101.43 101
10 Brooklyn Hom 11 Rocky Mountain 19:22.9 97.37 97
14 Emme Hamm 11 Rocky Mountain 19:44.3 90.23 90
20 Brooke Thompson 9 Rocky Mountain 19:59.4 85.20 85
22 Brooke Matsumori 12 Rocky Mountain 20:08.4 82.20 82
Faith Johnson lead the way with 111. 8 girls at 100 or above.00 -
Thoughts on Caldwell? Usually a pretty fast course, but didn't expect 8 people to run sub-16. Any real surprises here performance-wise?
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yessir13 wrote:
Thoughts on Caldwell? Usually a pretty fast course, but didn't expect 8 people to run sub-16. Any real surprises here performance-wise?
Why? 7 guys broke 16 last year and Timberline got added to the field this year.
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Times are very tough to understand in context in XC. The speed ratings put out for this race are informative about about how fast it ran yesterday.
If my math is on, the speed ratings put it as 21 seconds faster than Bob firman last year. Margin of error is estimated at 6 seconds for a given race, I think.
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Cardinal Classic in Soda should be another good meet. Assuming they bring their A squad, it’ll be interesting to see how Boise matches up with Idaho Falls and a strong Star Valley team. Athay probably won’t be opening his season yet according to a recent article, but Liddle should be there and he is the top 4A returner from state. Star Valley also has a few strong low sticks.
On the girls side it’ll match up the top 5a and 4a teams in Boise and Preston. It should also be a great continuing rivalry between a couple top state runners Nelah Roberts and Allie Bruce.
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It's another course that I think ultimately will be worthless for end of season consideration. The course is difficult enough that kids that won't struggle in Poky may blow up here.
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justboise? wrote:
It's another course that I think ultimately will be worthless for end of season consideration. The course is difficult enough that kids that won't struggle in Poky may blow up here.
Nah, it’s a slow course but the time gaps are normal. If it is speed rated they should be on point. The times won’t be relevant as a fitness indicator, but the placements and speed ratings will.
The hills are normal style hard hills, not repeated steep quick up and downs or bad surfaces. It’s a popular course.
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The altitude conversion from Boise 2700ft to Soda Springs 5779ft for a 17min 5k is 25s, per the race time app. I could see the elevation hitting some kids harder than others.
From Boise to Poky it is 13s.
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Off of Track speed ratings, Rocky has already run the equivalent of these places at NXR NW:
2, 9, 53, 81, 97, 109, 110, 124, 125, 130, 131, 137, 146, 155 (Scoring 242)
Updating these for Caldwell, the top 5 stay the same, but all the 130-146 athletes move into the 120's, with some additional athletes we hadn't looked at appearing in the 140's and 150's.
It appears that Rocky still hasn't improved their top 5, but their depth has closed the gap more than they had pre-season.
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Rocky Mountain has some good talent back for next year too
Lucas - 15:22 - 11
Goggins - 16:25 - 11
Kurtz - 16:29 - 10
Thomas - 16:29 - 11
Tuft - 16:35 - 1000 -
CDA returning next year:
Cervi-Skinner- 15:31 opener
Cervi-Skinner- 15:49 opener
Carr- 15:59 opener
Rohlinger- 16:16 opener
Rietze- 16:50 to win JV race by 30 seconds
As well as a freshman that opened up in 17:20.
Worth noting that CDA is returning 177, 171, 167, 162, and 150 speed ratings from that first meet vs 178, 157, 155, 155, 150 for Rocky.
Boise and Centennial lose a ton next year. Timberline looks to return pretty much everything.
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