Why is covid-19 being downplayed?

You think it's being downplayed?

Because every day I hear things like

"XXX more people have died in (name country)" - with the implication that it's totally due to CV-19 (no actual substantiation behind these numbers and if the deaths were a) because of the virus at all or b) solely due to the virus

or how about...

"10% of the population are getting it and needing hospitalization - even if we contain that to 1% in the US that means 700'000 people and we only have 300'000 hospital beds open" - with the assumption that every single person that will get it and need hospitalization at the exact same point in time.

I could go on...

Every cold and flu season the United States (and the world) face multiple strains of influenza and illnesses that when combined have far larger impacts on at risk people than this virus on it's own. Yes this is a dominant strain and we don't know if this is simply taking up a majority of the pie so to speak, or if it is going to wildly inflate the size of the pie. Very rarely do we have "live updates" of combined deaths/serious health implications, so the only number that matters is when this is probably all over and done with in 8 weeks time and what the total death/serious issues combined vs every other year in history.

My personal feeling is that 2020 will be no different to 2019 to 2018 and so on - but lets see. In 2018 it was 45 million and in 2019 it was 35 million.

So unless we see something in the vicinity of 55-60 million combined (which would be 18% of the population severely impacted) then your answer FACTUALLY is that it was actually massively overplayed.

Of course we should be cautious and take this seriously, I'm not saying that. But we should be doing this every winter and flu season. People at risk now are not at any more or less risk from cv-19 than the other combinations of viruses that occur every year.

Side note - it's funny how much we seem to care about this as a society to the point where now public gatherings/bars/restaurants are closing for business, but I haven't ever seen the same amount of diligence and care when it comes to extreme poverty, or homelessness for example. If you are under the age of 50 and in even reasonable health the chances that something serious happens to you are basically non-existent (unless you simultaneously catch pneumonia). These issues confront us more frequently than this virus yet business as usual 24/7.

CV-19 isn't downplayed it's quite the opposite.

"What about H1N1?!?!"

H1N1 - R0 (rate of communicability) of 1.4-1.6, hospitalization rate of 0.4%, death rate of 0.02%

Influenza - 1.28, 1%, 0.1%

Covid-19 - +3.0, 20%, 1%

Imagine 20yrs of influenza hospitalizations happening in 6 weeks.

Best post I've seen since the inception of Covid19. I am conservatives and in the medical field. I am taking it seriously. Right NOW, the largest impacts are economical. This virus has been in this country for 2 months and only 41 dead. I do feel sorry for those who have died. I feel as sorry for those who are making this political. No matter WHAT happens the Left will criticize Trump. And please drop the science denial meme. I personally have degrees in science and am not in denial.

You have a degree in science? Then tell us all, why does WHO state that travel restrictions do not work and can make things worse yet the US have implemented travel restrictions and continue to do so? I think you need to get a degree in "real world experience".

Economical?

It’s likely being overplayed, but it is still serious. There are significantly more cases out there than what is being recorded. I talked to some doctors this morning who work for a major hospital corporation and they only test a patient who has symptoms severe enough to require admission to the hospital (so take the number of confirmed cases and multiply it by 10 or more). It probably isn’t as lethal as what they are reporting, but the social distancing should help slow the spread (we won’t know the impact of the containment measures for a couple weeks). Life will move on.

ledi wrote:

I hate even using this term but I feel forced to - Why is the “right wing” media/some politicians downplaying the impacts of Covid-19? It’s pretty obvious medical systems will (and have been in some countries) become overwhelmed if it allowed to spread unchecked, leading to many unnecessary deaths.

So... what is the incentive for people like Sean Hannity and Boris Johnson to downplay the threat? (as well as some on this message board) I’m genuinely confused what the pushback is to the unanimous medical community and proof from other countries that medical resources will be stretched to the point of unnecessary deaths occurring. What is the incentive to downplay?

Boris Johnson isn’t downplaying! Get your facts straight. We’ve accepted that many people will die in the UK and that’s how Johnson started his press conference yesterday. Watch it and stop LYING!

dr Know wrote:

When 60 million were infected with h1n1 under Obama, we were told it was not a problem. But now crazies think this is being downplayed when it is 1% as severe?

That’s Americans for you...just always looking back...jeez.

George Washington didn’t do enough for disease control. Focus on your current commander in chief.

It doesn't have anything to do with being "right wing". This year's coronavirus is clearly being blown out of proportion. Sane people realize that. The facts are clear. The death rate in the US is less for Covid-19 than it was for the flu last year.

Do you know how you define terms? Things have to be put into context by comparing g to other things. Otherwise word have no meaning. If you grew up on an island with 2 women, the prettier one would be pretty in your eyes even if they were both ugly as compared to millions of other women. If you race them and won, you would think that you were a fast runner even if you were slow as compared to other runners in the world. So to say something is being g downplayed, it also needs to be compared in order to have meaning.

FelonDJT wrote:

"What about H1N1?!?!"

H1N1 - R0 (rate of communicability) of 1.4-1.6, hospitalization rate of 0.4%, death rate of 0.02%

Influenza - 1.28, 1%, 0.1%

Covid-19 - +3.0, 20%, 1%

Imagine 20yrs of influenza hospitalizations happening in 6 weeks.

Let me give an example of how your numbers can be instantly misleading and a perfect example of how selective statistic picking can create unnecessary fear. Sure if I read this number straight up I could convince myself how terrible this is, bunker down in a hazmat suit and be happy that in 8 weeks I survived.

But your numbers are misleading. Where did this 20% number of hospitalizations come from? Not any real data unless you can provide the source. China, with a standard of healthcare and general standard of health and living far lower than the US has experienced a 15% hospitalization rate so not sure where your number of 20% comes from.

Simply picking a data point in time, extrapolating it and making it applicable to an entire population is also flawed logic. Even now if we have a rate of hospitalization and death of 10% and 2% it doesn't mean that this is the "number" moving forwards for the entire US. The US death count as of Friday was 51 people - 31 of these happened in nursing home communities in the Seattle area. So if a certain age and health profile has fueled death numbers is it not also logical to suggest this could also be behind hospitalization numbers?

I mean I just watched a video of Donovan Mitchell saying he feels fine and is quite happy playing video games at home with a few weeks off - not sure if he will be visiting the hospital anytime soon.

Now if your potential hospitalization number is largely dictated by at-risk patients (an age and condition of health candidate), your number looks completely different for the US as a whole. So when you start talking about a shortage of hospital beds you need to make better and more logical calculations. Short example of that

100 people have the virus

10% need a hospital bed = 10 beds

we still have 100 people with the virus

20 are at high risk and 10% will need a hospital bed = 2 beds

20 are at a medium risk and 5% will need a hospital bed = 1 bed

60 are at a low risk and 2% need a hospital bed = 1.2 beds (lets say 1 bed)

You see how this makes a difference? This is more like what we are dealing with here. In this example above I am not even sure if really high risk candidates even make up 20% of the number infected - I don't know. Either way I'm showing how the candidate and circumstances make a difference - in this example it makes a difference of 50%!!!

I'm hearing now that we are proposing a full societal shutdown. Great, cool - for people of privilege like me who earn 6 figures and can "work from home" this is awesome - paid holidays basically. What about less fortunate people who don't have this luxury. People in the service industry who rely on human interaction (tips) for their living? This is where your flawed numbers create situations of unnecessary panic that have impacts on people that are really serious.

So think about that before you drop your (330 million x 3%) x 20% nugget down at your local - wait no, you won't because that's probably shut too shut now too. ^^

“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

― George Carlin

Rojo, defined.

Thanks for saying it. The level of hypocrisy out there is staggering.

Where is everyone's outrage for nuclear arms which could wipe out most of the planet in short order. Where is everyone's outrage for air pollution or toxic waterways which create cancer clusters that kill thousands every year. Where are these people for these and many other large-scale injustices that are killing many thousands each year. They are nowhere to be found that's where.

As an aside those who are hoarding exemplify the second lowest form of human life- the lowest being Wall St. speculators who are short-selling and profiting off of other people's misery.

It’s more why is the media overhyping this flu.

Allen53 wrote:

[

As an aside those who are hoarding exemplify the second lowest form of human life- the lowest being Wall St. speculators who are short-selling and profiting off of other people's misery.

Not really fair. Short sellers provide liquidity to the market and usually lose a lot of money, which helps everyone else.

But to the bigger point...we're getting one-day bits of good news out of europe.

Daily death counts down in italy and france, for example.

Just one day and we have to take all data with a pinch of salt, but I'll much prefer a falling daily death count over a rising one. Even one day.

The hope, of course, is that Europe will follow Asia's lead and be able to stamp this thing out quickly. The fear is that Asia can do things Europe can't and the numbers will keep getting worse.

I'd add to this that Covid is being front and centered in the media because it affect the rich world. There are far worse things every freaking year in poor nations that don't get any press at all, because they are things happening to poor brown and black people. Human nature, but it's a thing.

agip wrote:

Allen53 wrote:

[

As an aside those who are hoarding exemplify the second lowest form of human life- the lowest being Wall St. speculators who are short-selling and profiting off of other people's misery.

Not really fair. Short sellers provide liquidity to the market and usually lose a lot of money, which helps everyone else.

But to the bigger point...we're getting one-day bits of good news out of europe.

Daily death counts down in italy and france, for example.

Just one day and we have to take all data with a pinch of salt, but I'll much prefer a falling daily death count over a rising one. Even one day.

The hope, of course, is that Europe will follow Asia's lead and be able to stamp this thing out quickly. The fear is that Asia can do things Europe can't and the numbers will keep getting worse.

Asia haven’t stamped anything out. They have been on lockdown for months, slowing the number of deaths. As soon as they step outside again it’s back. The reason it appears China are beating it is BECAUSE 50 MILLION PEOPLE HAVEN'T KEFT THEIR HOMES FOR WEEKS

asia and elsewhere are doing a much better job than the U.S. Trump has failed us massively.

starting to lift the quarrantine