sp2 wrote:
BOHICA wrote:
This. Even with Abdi & Lagat (&Ritz) people are too much in love with things that happened too long ago.
He's a got a set of half-mar and full-mar performances from a few years back that's clearly *superior* to those of most of these guys.
Exactly when? Way to come with the hard facts in your response, Einstein.
Saying Puskerda is a "true" dark horse implies there are "non-true"?
BOHICA wrote:
sp2 wrote:
He's a got a set of half-mar and full-mar performances from a few years back that's clearly *superior* to those of most of these guys.
Exactly when? Way to come with the hard facts in your response, Einstein.
Sorry, I didn't realize you were too stupid to have familiarized yourself with his actual numbers before expressing your definitive (moronic) judgment about his prospects.
I'll spend a minute giving you the rough idea --since you're also apparently too lazy to do it yourself. After this, you're on your own.
*A 1:01:36 in his debut half at Houston in 2012 (while a college senior).
*A ~1:02:30 in the same race the year after --which may have been a better effort than the year before, because the conditions were horrible.
*2:10:24 at Chicago, '15 (before cheater-shoes arrived).
* Fourth place at the '16 Trials
*1:01:29 at Houston '16, a month before Trials.
His 2:10 at Chicago was, I think, the fastest non-Rupp US time for several years, and is *still* faster than anyone in the field has run, save Rupp, Korir, Ward, & Fauble.
You're welcome, Dip-sh*t.
You certainly are sorry. Of course I knew, and you just reinforced the point I made already earlier on this thread. Don't be so hard on yourself, buddy.
sp2 wrote:
His 2:10 at Chicago was, I think, the fastest non-Rupp US time for several years, and is *still* faster than anyone in the field has run, save Rupp, Korir, Ward, & Fauble.
Other than the old guys. Ritz may still have something in him. Abdi, too, with his 2:11 in NY last Fall.
I guess Puskedra's pedigree ranks him top 5 of the competitors.
wrote:
sp2 wrote:
His 2:10 at Chicago was, I think, the fastest non-Rupp US time for several years, and is *still* faster than anyone in the field has run, save Rupp, Korir, Ward, & Fauble.
Other than the old guys. Ritz may still have something in him. Abdi, too, with his 2:11 in NY last Fall.
I guess Puskedra's pedigree ranks him top 5 of the competitors.[/quote]
Ya, Puskedra would be 5th projection if he ran his Chicago time this year. But he didn’t, his Chicago time was five years ago and hasn’t done crap since the Olympic trials. He *could* be a contender if he is miraculously in PR fitness, but a dozen people are contenders if they run a minute faster than what they did just a few months ago, much more likely to happen
I don't know all the races he did, but here are results for 2 races he did in 2019:
https://eclecticedgeracing.overallraceresults.com/pages/event_summary/274/
https://eclecticedgeracing.overallraceresults.com/pages/event_summary/333/
He pretty much decided to do each of them like the day or 2 beforehand. He's just enjoying himself now and having fun with running again. It's hard to tell how fit he is, but he was definitely more fit in the November race than the August one, so it's good upward trajectory. That and he did 22 miles at 5:15 pace a few weeks ago, according to his Facebook.
basically the 3rd place is the random one to predict.
any guy with a good training block and has done the equivalent of a 210 can get in, if he has his best day.
it is a lotto.
ritz is the bet for long shot third, if he's got in the good training block.
letsrun is good at handicapping, is there an article out there?
You really don’t know what “dark horse” means.
I'm as big a Luke fan as anyone on here, but would bet the house that he is nowhere near Top 10 next Saturday. And at best a 25% chance he's Top 20. Where is all this unbridled optimism coming from???
Chelanga could be over looked to
not a horse. 0/10
underdog defined wrote:
You really don’t know what “dark horse” means.
Truth
wrote:
sp2 wrote:
His 2:10 at Chicago was, I think, the fastest non-Rupp US time for several years, and is *still* faster than anyone in the field has run, save Rupp, Korir, Ward, & Fauble.
Other than the old guys. Ritz may still have something in him. Abdi, too, with his 2:11 in NY last Fall.
I guess Puskedra's pedigree ranks him top 5 of the competitors.[/quote]
Right, other than the old guys. I should've been more precise. What I meant to say was faster than anyone else (save Rupp, of course) has run *since that time* (Chicago '15).
I think that's right, though I'm not completely sure. (That no one else ran that fast for a ridiculously long time --like from then till last year. And it's *still* only 3 other guys who have, in all that time. And those 3 did it with cheater-flys.)
And I absolutely agree that ignoring Ritz (as *everyone* has done --till the last two weeks or so) is even stupider than ignoring Luke.
Ritz's half-mar results from the last two years tell us he's *still* fitter and faster than anyone in the field except for Rupp, and maybe Lenny.
It's just a question of whether he can finish a full-mar without breaking down, cramping up, etc., as he's done so many time recently.
Lagat, I refuse to take seriously. (Though what 'magic' he may have found in Kenya the last couple months, who knows?)
Abdi, based on his last NY effort, can't be dismissed, but I don't see him as a top threat.
So many great story-lines. This is gonna be a blast to watch.
kmaclam wrote:
I'm as big a Luke fan as anyone on here, but would bet the house that he is nowhere near Top 10 next Saturday. And at best a 25% chance he's Top 20. Where is all this unbridled optimism coming from???
No one here expressed anything resembling 'unbridled optimism.' (Maybe you don't know what that word means?)
Simply pointed out that he's been *totally* ignored, and there's reason to think he *could* be a legitimate threat. (And might be a better bet than other guys who *have* been discussed as legitimate threats.)
A wild card is not a dark horse. Ritz and Luke P., to name 2, are wild cards. Could finish 9th, could finish 39th, could DNF going by the reliable evidence anyone can see since 2016.
Rupp, Korir, Kebenei, Ward, Fauble, Lagat are the top guys that I can think of. There are quite a few guys now in the 2:10-2:12 range who could qualify, given the difficulty of the course. If weather in Atlanta is similar to what it is now in the south, heat will not be a factor, but we still have a week. Hills mean there will be an upset. Jake Riley, Jerrell Mock, Parker Stinson are the next three fastest qualifiers (not counting Kebenei and Lagat). Then Andrew Bumbalough. There is a quality runner who has not been heard from much. Chris Derrick ran 13:08 years ago. If he were healthy and solved the marathon, there'd be no reason that he couldn't run 2:08 or better, but none of that is happening, unfortunately.
Just gotta shout out to you for such a punk username.
sp2 wrote:
kmaclam wrote:
I'm as big a Luke fan as anyone on here, but would bet the house that he is nowhere near Top 10 next Saturday. And at best a 25% chance he's Top 20. Where is all this unbridled optimism coming from???
No one here expressed anything resembling 'unbridled optimism.' (Maybe you don't know what that word means?)
Simply pointed out that he's been *totally* ignored, and there's reason to think he *could* be a legitimate threat. (And might be a better bet than other guys who *have* been discussed as legitimate threats.)
*OK*, *Just reread all the above* posts* and most all are totally *optomistic*. Or, in my opinion, *could* be interpreted as *resembling* optimism* . I thought you would recognize the *unbridled*-*dark horse* play on words. Will keep it more *remedial* in the future, sorry.