32 days until the Tokyo Marathon: here are 64 profiles, two each day

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aiyabei ftw wrote:

This is a great sign for Senbere, after all your predictions are always way off lol. I don't think anyone will stand a chance vs Aiyabei however, her 2:19 (going out at WR pace and running huge parts of the race alone) in Frankfurt was way more impressive than anything the other women in the field have ever done, including Ruti Aga.

Teferi still not the next woman for me: looking at how Azmera Gebru and Selly Chepyego Kaptich’s records match up including head to head last May in Paris.

Gebru seems obvious but I believe Selly at 34yo still has improvement in her.

Next man may be Asefa Mengstu, turning 32yo before the event and ranked 15. Had a great year in 2019: third Dubai 2.04.24, second in Paris 2.07.25, then third in Chicago 2.05.48. Has a PB of 2.04.06 when fourth in Dubai in 2018.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Aiyabei ftw wrote:

This is a great sign for Senbere, after all your predictions are always way off lol. I don't think anyone will stand a chance vs Aiyabei however, her 2:19 (going out at WR pace and running huge parts of the race alone) in Frankfurt was way more impressive than anything the other women in the field have ever done, including Ruti Aga.

Teferi still not the next woman for me: looking at how Azmera Gebru and Selly Chepyego Kaptich’s records match up including head to head last May in Paris.

Sixth lady could be Azmera Gebru, 24yo and ranked 24. Second in Paris in 2.22.52 then third in Amsterdam in 2.20.48 after third there the year before in 2.23.31.

Seventh to finish should be Getaneh Molla, 26yo and ranked 47. Won Dubai last year in 2.03.34. Just needs to finish a second event to confirm the first. Has to get the runs on the board, to use cricketing parlance, even a 2.07. Also, has yet to break an hour for a half in seven attempts.

Senbere is my choice for seventh. More details in a minute.

Teferi as mentioned was sixth at Worlds over 10000 on the track, is 24yo and ranked 14 as a road runner. Won RAK in 65.45 and Valencia in 65.32. In one attempt at this classic distance, Senbere was ninth in Dubai in 2018 in 2.24.11. I believe she has improvement in her, just not the three minutes it will take to finish among the deep top five here.

Seven men done and still no mention of a Japanese man in their penultimate chance to make their national team for their home Olympics. Shitara is talking a big talk, saying a 2.05 NR won’t cut it for him. He went out ridiculously quick at the Grand Champs and paid the price. First 15k in a tick under 45 min and more than two minutes clear. Slowed to a 5k split of 16.57 between 30 and 35k, only then leading by 35 sec. Eventually 14th in 2.16.09.

Eighth to finish may be Dickson Chumba, 33yo and ranked 113. Has a great record here: never been off the podium in every year here; six consecutive events, 2014-19. Won twice in 2014 and 2018. But this group of competitors is deeper. A bit more soon.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Eighth to finish may be Dickson Chumba, 33yo and ranked 113. Has a great record here: never been off the podium in every year here; six consecutive events, 2014-19. Won twice in 2014 and 2018. But this group of competitors is deeper. A bit more soon.

Won Chicago in 2015 and Track and Field News ranked him 8th that year. Previous year was ranked fourth after his PB for third in Chicago of 2.04.32.

Next lady could be Selly Chepyego, 34yo and ranked 50. Fifth in Paris in 2.23.53 then brilliant third in Berlin in PB of 2.21.06. In 2018 was second in Ljubljana in 2.23.15.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Seven men done and still no mention of a Japanese man in their penultimate chance to make their national team for their home Olympics. Shitara is talking a big talk, saying a 2.05 NR won’t cut it for him. He went out ridiculously quick at the Grand Champs and paid the price. First 15k in a tick under 45 min and more than two minutes clear. Slowed to a 5k split of 16.57 between 30 and 35k, only then leading by 35 sec. Eventually 14th in 2.16.09.

First Japanese next: who should it be, and in a NR?

Suguru Osako. And it doesn’t matter what time he runs. He already holds the all-important third position from the Grand Champs. So first home gives him the ticket to the Olympics unless some minor miracle happens the week after at Lake Biwa. Miracle because all the contenders are here, not there.

I struggled to find a place for the next lady to finish. She is the last of those capable of making the first three or four in a sub 2.21 if she had a good day. Shure Demise is 24yo and ranked 31. Represented Ethiopia at Worlds last year but could not finish in those oppressive conditions. Third here in 2.21.05 after in 2018 running fourth and third in majors, both in just over 2.22. Is one of ten siblings and ran her PB just after turning 19: fourth in Dubai in 2.20.59. Before that, ran halfs in 71.03 as a 17yo and 68.53 at age 18.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Seventh to finish should be Getaneh Molla, 26yo and ranked 47. Won Dubai last year in 2.03.34. Just needs to finish a second event to confirm the first.

Should ? Could ? Hopefully he's not DNS this time, like he was in Chicago and Valencia...like the runner-up in Dubai 2019, Negasa, the guy who painted over his 4% shoes if memory serves ! It's a strange sport when there is ZERO news out there about a guy who won a major marathon with a smashing time !

Tenth to finish may be Hayle Lemi Berhanu, 25yo and ranked 40. DNF at Boston last year then second in Toronto in 2.05.09. PB is from second in Dubai in 2016: 2.04.33. Won Dubai the year before that 55 seconds slower. Has repped for Ethiopia at worlds 2015 and Rio Olympics.

Next woman might be Shitaye Eshete, 29yo and ranked 21. Second in Prague in 2.22.39, had a DNF at the Worlds like so many others, then second in Ljubljana in 2.21.33. In 2018 ran 2.24.51 in Hamburg.

Next man could be Hiroto Inoue, 27yo and ranked 490. Twelfth in Boston in 2.11.53 and 27th at the Grand Champs in 2.22.10. Is better than that with a PB here in 2018: fifth in 2.06.54. Won the Asian Games that year as well.

Eleventh lady should be Sutume Asefa Kebede, 25yo and ranked 76. Details in a minute or two.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Eleventh lady should be Sutume Asefa Kebede, 25yo and ranked 76. Details in a minute or two.

Last November won Beijing in 2.23.31. Previous best was fourth in Dubai in 2016 in 2.24.00. Once held the Ethiopian record for 25k.