Can Nico Young threaten Galen Rupp's HS 5k record?

What were Rupp’s PRs as a junior in high school?

Josh Methner just broke the Illinois State course record. Chris Derrick and Lukas Verzbikas couldn’t break it. Derrick ran 13:55 in HS basically solo at Arcadia as a senior and Verzbikas has the HS two mile record and ran 3:59.

Can Methner break 14 this year? Young crushed Methner at NXN. Young should at least be sub-13:50. His PRs as a junior are better than Derrick’s. Verzbikas had a better mile PR going into his senior year.

But ... could he broach 28:32 of Rudy Chapa ?!

Want to know how hard it is and what the equivalency is? Only 5 NCAA guys ran faster than 13:37 indoor last year while the 5th best indoor 3000 was 7:48. So it appears that the rough equivalency is 13:23 for 3200. Young won't run faster than 13:50 based on that. Only 6 guys broke 13:37 outdoor while the 6th best 1500 was 3:37. Young isn't doing it based on that either. Maybe Young can run 10 seconds slower than these guys in the mike or 15 seconds slower in the 3200 because he is endurance based? The 6th best 10k was 28:27. He won't break 13:50. Rupp is just better than Young. NXN is just not the same as Footlocker. It does not have the history to draw comparisons from. 8:40 is very good but nowhere near 13:37.

Jzs wrote:

But ... could he broach 28:32 of Rudy Chapa ?!

Rupp or Young?

Because one of them did...

I don’t know Young’s birthdate, but he could probably throw down a solid 10 next outdoor season before aging out of juniors, if that even matters to he and his coaches.

"Young, a 16-year-old junior, ran the fastest 3,200 meters in the history of the prestigious Arcadia Invitational, and his time of 8 minutes 40 seconds was the eighth-fastest all-time outdoors by a high school athlete."

Looks like he will be a junior during his frosh year.

Jakob I ran 13:35 at 16, 13:17 at 17 and 13:02 at 18 so why shouldn´t Nico be able to run 13:37 later this year when he is 17/ 18 (I don´t know Nico´s exact birth date)

What does one runner have to do with another? So Young ran 8:40 as a junior. Why can't every elite high school runner do that? Jacob is much better than Nico and Rupp is better than Nico and Nico is better than all othet current high school runners.

I was referencing in regards to the 13:37 HS record, not overall career.

his birthday is july 27

I'm really surprised that everyone's giving him no chance. Of course you generally bet against record being broken--that's why it's a record.

But Young ran 8:40 last spring, and may have taken a another step forward since then. 13:37 is very fast, but if I were asked to imagine the runner who eventually beats that time, I would come up with a resume like Young's.

Young will likely be able to run a 8:25 this spring. Given that, he'll easily be able to go under 13:37. More like 13:30 flat.

Well if it was equivalent to a 7:48 3k last year, he needs to run about 8:23 for 3200 to get there. He won't be close to that.

if you're talking about a championship race, throw those times out the window. the indoor NCAA mile last year was won in 4:05 by a guy who had been injured on and off for years and only had a shot because he had the best kick. don't forget a lot of those guys might be doubling races during the championships so even if they're not tactical, they're not necessarily going to be able to pr either.

Compare data wrote:

Well if it was equivalent to a 7:48 3k last year, he needs to run about 8:23 for 3200 to get there. He won't be close to that.

Don't speak so soon. He has a great chance at this

He has a shot at this. Ritz ran a similar 2M time as a junior and senior and ran 13:44. 8:40 2M is worth 13:48, according to IAAF points table, while 8:43 2M (8:40 3200m) is worth 13:53. To run 13:37, he'd have to be in 8:33 2M shape. That would be very tough. However, he is certainly a big step above his junior year shape after a summer at altitude and a great xc season. Probably the best bet is low 13:40s. Next year at NAU, however, he'll have a shot at 13:20s (Ritz as a freshman at Colorado, also at altitude, ran 13:27, while German Fernandez (8:34.4 2M in hs) ran 13:25 as a freshman in college.

How is rupp better then young?

Young’s jr. season track pr’s are superior to rupps.

Additionally, Ej holland broke the Oregon state cross country record this year.

Holland also owns all jr. state records in Oregon track.

Which means up until this point in their respective careers Holland is better then Rupp.

Holland has consistently been starched by young.

So any way you slice it up so far, young is better then rupp.

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Jakob at 19 is arguably better than any US born 1500-5000m runner ever (possibly not Ryun) and has matured super early.

That's like asking if 17 year old Bekele could run 13:37. Of course he could, he was a global talent, but that's not really the point