Guys and Girls NXN2019 Numbers, Predictions

When Methner broke the Detweiler record, I read somewhere that in general he was running 15-20 seconds ahead of last year at most of his races. If that's true and he matches that at NXN, he's right in the mix with last years winning time.

The talent here is ridiculous, someone like Green, Holland, Ohlson, Shoppe could also win this thing!

Methner would win most past NXNs but the talent in this field and this 2020 class is ridiculous and to the point that I've never seen before with any other class. Nico and Cole Sprout are once in generation talents that we may not see in a while. How I see this race playing out is a pack of 5 guys break away at the 4K (Sprout,Nico,Methner,Holland, and Schoppe. And Strangio just behind on his own in 6th). With about 600 to go I see Nico and Sprout pulling away from the other 3 and it will be a 1 v 1 battle side by side the last 150 just like Arcadia last spring. Based on closing speed I think Nico will edge out Sprout in around 14:48 and Sprout in 14:49. Holland takes 3rd in 14:53 Schoppe takes 4th in 14:55, Methner 5th in 14:57 and Strangio in 6th in 15:01.. Not sure on 7-Back but I think these are the 6 guys to lookout for in regards to winning.

If it does come down to a final kick -- which everyone expects -- those 2 small-but-steep hills some 250m out from the finish will be where the race is won.

That is where Liam Anderson moved away from Cole Sprout last year after being side-by-side for most of the race. Sprout was so cooked after the hills he wobbled in 3rd . . . which I'm sure he will be better prepared for this time around.

Can't disagree with your top-6 -- mine as well -- but still think Methner is being undervalued. Would you expect 1972-era Craig Virgin coming in 5th in this race?

Bower Man wrote:

If it does come down to a final kick -- which everyone expects -- those 2 small-but-steep hills some 250m out from the finish will be where the race is won.

That is where Liam Anderson moved away from Cole Sprout last year after being side-by-side for most of the race. Sprout was so cooked after the hills he wobbled in 3rd . . . which I'm sure he will be better prepared for this time around.

Can't disagree with your top-6 -- mine as well -- but still think Methner is being undervalued. Would you expect 1972-era Craig Virgin coming in 5th in this race?

While the hill certainly got to Sprout, Hocker had a great kick - I think he was in 5th with maybe 350 to go - and passed Allred, Young going up the hill and then Sprout on the flat.

I actually think if it comes down to a kick between the top guys, Sprout will win. He is a 1:53A runner and has a 4:04 full mile. If Daschbach was healthy and running, he would be my pick because I don’t think Young and Sprout will go hard from the gun and I think that’s the only way they could drop him. But without him, it’ll be close. I think Young goes hard the last mile and drops everyone.

1. Young

2. Sprout

3. Holland

4. Schoppe

5. Methner

Despite the boys race being first they gave Tuohy bib #1 and the girls the low numbers (unlike 2017). Very fitting for her.

Box assignments also available

https://nxn.runnerspace.com/eprofile.php?event_id=13&do=news&news_id=592372&utm_content=bufferd2203&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

I think Ryan Schoppe is a big ? at NXN.

Personally, I think he is just as good as Sam Worley and Reed Brown-- but it's his first time at a national meet (he was injured after state? last year, I believe). His times and races certainly show he's that good, too. Especially by how he always wins by a good margin.

I'm really curious to see where he falls in at NXN. I think top 5 should be expected. Top 3 would be amazing.

I could see the race playing out with a big pack of runners pushing the pace.

Young, Sprout, Holland, Methner, Strangio, and Schoppe are my top picks. The second pack of the three NJ guys Jennings Antzack and Murphy, Belnap, Blanks, Brown, Ohlson (returning top 10 finisher) should chase hard.

Will be a tough and entertaining race, entirely different dynamic from the girls. I expect Tuohy to run away from a tough pack of Starliper Hart Thorvaldson Ewert Rauber and Walters by the second mile.

51 or so hours to go: waiting is brutal!

Creaky Bones wrote:

I actually think if it comes down to a kick between the top guys, Sprout will win. He is a 1:53A runner and has a 4:04 full mile. If Daschbach was healthy and running, he would be my pick because I don’t think Young and Sprout will go hard from the gun and I think that’s the only way they could drop him. But without him, it’ll be close. I think Young goes hard the last mile and drops everyone.

1. Young

2. Sprout

3. Holland

4. Schoppe

5. Methner

Young would be foolish to wait until the last mile to get after it. Much safer to get out hard and stay on the gas the entire time. The less guys he has around him the less chances for a mishap. He's gone out hard in every major race he's run and it would be shocking to see him do anything but the same this weekend.

It is the runner who is strongest at the end who wins. Anderson and Troutner showed us that. But I think it will be fast - 4:40 or less at 1 mile, 9:35 at 2 miles. 14:45 to win

When any high schooler runs an 8x1K workout @ 2:45 he's gonna be tough to beat no matter how fast or slow the race goes out..... Nico without a doubt will win this race, he couldve been an All American at NCAAs this year.

Honestly I think Sprout can beat Young if Young does all the work leading the entire race. Reverse of their Arcadia 3200.

Creaky Bones wrote:

you been watching? wrote:

Young would be foolish to wait until the last mile to get after it. Much safer to get out hard and stay on the gas the entire time. The less guys he has around him the less chances for a mishap. He's gone out hard in every major race he's run and it would be shocking to see him do anything but the same this weekend.

Honestly I think Sprout can beat Young if Young does all the work leading the entire race. Reverse of their Arcadia 3200.

Leading at Glendoveer is a lot different than leading on a track. There is virtually no drafting advantage to be had by Sprout by letting Young lead the race because he’s not going to be directly behind Young. Leading at Glendoveer is the best place to be assuming one isn’t running over their capacity.

If the course is heavy, Sprout over Nico. I can see Nico third or fourth if it's raining.

tarckstar wrote:

If the course is heavy, Sprout over Nico. I can see Nico third or fourth if it's raining.

Why is that? Nico isn’t exactly heavy.

Bingtianss wrote:

I could see the race playing out with a big pack of runners pushing the pace.

Young, Sprout, Holland, Methner, Strangio, and Schoppe are my top picks. The second pack of the three NJ guys Jennings Antzack and Murphy, Belnap, Blanks, Brown, Ohlson (returning top 10 finisher) should chase hard.

Jace Aschbrenner from NP could chase for a top 10 spot too. In Brosnan’s post-CIF interview he said that Jace is a top 10 in the country guy based on his state performance

Classof2020 wrote:

I just want to point out how historic this 2020 class is. Nico breaking the national 3 mile record in 13:39, Methner breaking a 47 year old record in Illinois, Sprout Breaking many track records like Drew Hunters 2 mile and 3K class records, 2 8:40 3200 runners as juniors, Schoppe and Daschbach running 14:14. Graydon Morris making 4 straight foot locker nationals. I haven't even mentioned Evan Holland, Matt Strangio, Cruz Culpepper. History will be made these next two weeks and this track season. I think the NXN course record will be gone, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see many sub 4s from this class this spring. Nico,Sprout,Daschbach, Holland, Strangio, Schoppe, and Culpepper all have a shot to do it. I honestly think a 8:30 3200 is duable for Nico and possibly Sprout.

Class of 2020 is awesome on the girls side this year too, even with Culbreath not racing NXN. 2 years ago there were hardly any senior girls at the top, now it’s senior dominated this year.

This is my best shot for predicting the outcome of the boys and the girls top 50 runners at NXN:

Boys top 50

https://www.runnerspace.com/profile.php?member_id=173603&do=photos&photo_id=1015767

Girls top 50

https://www.runnerspace.com/profile.php?member_id=173603&do=photos&photo_id=1015773