2019 Girls NXN top 5 individual predictions

Puffer wrote:

Yeah I don't think who's closing Kik is going to be strongest can really be known beforehand

In other words I think it comes down to who has more left in the tank and who's feeling better on that day

Tuohy starliper Katelyn Hart I'll probably the fastest girls at the 800 in the race. There might be some fast 400m Runners but none of them are among the top girls. It's possible to we can get out kicked in a race but it's also possible she could out kick someone just look at the races with starliper parks.and Victoria Starcher they basically each have outkicked each other on various occasions so...

Agreed. Quite a few of those top girls are in the 2:08 - 2:12 range. My point was I don’t think we can expect a girl to have much left if she sticks with Tuohy for the first 2 miles.

I honestly don’t know if any girls other than Tuohy in the field can run a sub-16;00 5000m (maybe Hart? I really don’t know). Tuohy has run 15:37.

The idea of telling a girl to stick on her for 4K and then run away the last 1K is like telling a 4:15 miler to stick with a 4:00

miler for 3 laps and then kick the last 400m. The 4:15er is going to have nothing left.

Starliper is not running NXN

Luke Skywalker wrote:

Starliper is not running NXN

That’s not what it says in this article:

Luke Skywalker wrote:

Starliper is not running NXN

She has said multiple times that she is attending NXN. Nike has her confirmed...so unless she changed her mind in the last day.....

Nufsaid! wrote:

Yeah it's crazy to think no one's even been within 17 seconds of Tuohy for the last 3 years

And that was once. I mean how many times have people been within 30 seconds of her? Maybe twice in the last 3 years. Crazy!

That one race was when she was coming off a minor knee injury in the middle of the season to the #2 runner in the country Kelsey Chmiel... who would be a x2 national champion if it wasn't for Tuohy too.

Tuohy is a lock for 1st unless she trips and falls dramatically somehow, but even then I can still see her winning.

This year is crazy competitive. We could see some dark horses rise to the podium but these will be my predictions.

Tuohy

Starliper

Thorvaldson

Walters

Ewert

Could see big performances from lots of other girls like Rauber, Hart, and Max.

Yeah it's interesting a bunch of girls have pretty similar numbers with PR's of around 2:09 in the 800

And 438 in the 1600

That's starliper Hart Starcher Tuohy and Parks

I think Starcher might be the strongest runner in that range if she sticks with it in college

But yeah 5000m and especially cross-country Tuohy is the strongest

And I think that nxn course only adds to her lead. I don't know I just think her running Style really does well on a tough course. Yeah I think she's a really good athlete and has the form

Oh yeah starlipers running!

She said she's feeling really good and looking for a strong race! She's hoping for a top 5 finish. She said she's never been there but is used to that kind of weather being from Pennsylvania

Yeah Tuohy looks Unstoppable! And I heard she got new sneakers so double whammy!

I'll say it one time. Touhy will lose to Starliper by 6 seconds.

I don't know did starliper get new sneakers... word is Tuohy has a new pair of kicks!

Stopwatcher wrote:

Yeah it's interesting a bunch of girls have pretty similar numbers with PR's of around 2:09 in the 800

And 438 in the 1600

That's starliper Hart Starcher Tuohy and Parks

I think Starcher might be the strongest runner in that range if she sticks with it in college

But yeah 5000m and especially cross-country Tuohy is the strongest

And I think that nxn course only adds to her lead. I don't know I just think her running Style really does well on a tough course. Yeah I think she's a really good athlete and has the form

The running style that works well at NXN for girls is this: great mile speed, great strength, light on their feet. You've got to get out fast, hold on and not sink in the wet grass and mud. The majority of the girls finishing in the top-10 are about 100 pounds. That course is very difficult for all but the lightest runners.

A few more Tuohy comments/myth busters:

1 - can't run in traffic - In 2015 she was 49th at NXN, and 13th in 2016, mixing it up in traffic with other "good" runners. Only since her dramatic improvement as a soph, was she out in front by 30 seconds all the time. Similarly, coming from behind in a DMR, or racing with the pros, she's in there trading elbows with the competition just fine. So while it might be new to see some people around her, I don't think she'll panic.

2 - goes out too fast - Sometimes true, but have some perspective on this. If you win a 5k by 30 seconds and run perfectly even splits you will be up 10 at the mile, up 20 at the 2 mile, and up 30 at the finish. Also in XC, the general strategy is to get out fast to establish position, avoid losing a shoe, tripping or falling, or getting pinched off at an early turn. It takes an amazing amount of mental discipline to go out slow in XC, and work your way back through the pack without panic, which high schoolers often lack. Lastly if you are the strongest runner in the field and don't have great sprint speed, why not just attack from the gun? End the race by the 1.5 mile mark and make the last 800 a coronation, rather than a mystery.

3 - deep well - Here on LR you often here that when the going gets tough you have to "go to the well". Well, the Tuohy well is quite deep. Hart 164 at 2018 FL Final, and Starliper 163 at 2019 FL NE have the best non-Tuohy speed rating PB's in the field. Tuohy has about 30 performances at this level or above, and can call on the memory of the 177 rating she posted in 2018 at Holmdel. Similarly, the field has some impressive 16 minute+ 5k runners, 9:55 2 milers, and 4:38 milers. Again Tuohy can call up the 15:37 5k on the track (by herself and the only time she has run one), the 9:01 3000 with the pros, and the 4:33 mile at NBON. So if the going gets tough, and she needs to find something, there's a lot in there.

As a fan, I'd love to see someone have a breakout performance, and the race have a thrilling finish, but I don't really see it happening. On the other hand, the battle for 2nd and the Foot Locker girls final is wide open, and quite intriguing.

1. Katelyn Tuohy

2. Marlee Starliper

3. Claire Walters

4. Sydney Thorvaldson

5. Taylor Ewert

Touhy seems about the same level as last year whereas Starliper and company are significantly faster so the difference in speed ratings is less statistically significant. The 15:37 is not recent, so that has less bearing at race predictions compared to what she has done in the last 6 months. Starliper looked like she had something left in the tank in winning Footlocker NE. I hear Thorvaldson has a very aggressive front running style so I doubt she will let Touhy run away from her in the beginning. Coming from a rural town in Wyoming, she does not have the same training advantage as girls from established programs in NY so she probably runs more on pure talent. Brynn Brown also seems highly talented but not sure if she is completely over her injury. Taylor Ewert is actually the top olympic hopeful in the entire field (albeit in the RW) but she is always consistently near the front of the pack. I would not bet against Touhy but, whoever wins will have to really have to work for it. I have nothing against Touhy personally but I want to see at least one other person push it out from the front.

Not outlandish as some people might think--if anyone can do it , it is Starliper. Being an underdog, she has less pressure to win. She ran high 4:30s in the mile in the spring and seems to be significantly better condition now. Thus, she seems fast and strong enough to stay with Touhy. The more important question is if she has the self confidence to believe she can actually win.

Something I think is interesting to add is that recently Starlipper has found a lot of success by running the first mile very relaxed and then negative splitting the next two. She did that at both PIAA and footlocker NE. Both of those races she looked like she jogged.

I wouldn’t be surprised if she just sticks with the front crowed for the first mile, then breaks away after (Touhy will probably go out faster and maybe some girls will stick with her).

Girls have found a lot of success doing this in the past years. There always seems to be one person on the podium that no one expected and the girl usually has this same strategy.

It would also be a really smart move, especially for Starlipper because she is doubling at Footlocker. If she is running and feels that something is off or knows that there is no point and racing all out because she won’t win, then she can easily conserve energy the next two miles. I wouldn’t be surprised if Starlipper didn’t go all out and still got a top 5-10 finish because of how good of shape she is in!

In 2017 Culbreath and Hart tried to stay with Tuohy early and paid for it. It cost Hart a podium spot and Culbreath was completely fried. So people have tried to run with her. They just learned that needed to run their own race and hope Tuohy does not have it that day.

Tuohy is human. But if she runs to form she is the clear favorite. In 2017 she was coming off monster efforts earlier in the season. In 2018 she was injured. The goal this year was to peak late, conserve energy, stay healthy and build toward the track season. Looks like she succeeded. None of the other runners have any pressure so they can take their shot and hope Tuohy does not have it. But I don't see any evidence that is going to happen. I want her to win. She's earned it and has been the hunted for three straight years.

In 2016 Culbreath actually beat Tuohy at NXN. And Grace Ping beat both of them that year as an 8th grader. Fast forward 3 years, Tuohy is the only one of these that’s racing in it.

In 2016 Tuohy was 13th and the 4th placed NY finisher. She was already setting records but it wasn't until her sophomore year that she really came into her own. That is why I don't buy the idea that she is going to suddenly slow down due to some mysterious distance runner curse.