Elinor Purrier SCRATCHED the 1500m!!!

Seattle Track Club wrote:

I thought I heard an interview where Houlihan mentioned she was planning to run the 1500 and 5000, which would make Purrier’s chance in the 5000 that much harder. Schweizer and Schneider both might have the edge over Purrier. I’d name Kate Grace as the favorite to snag the 3rd spot in the 1500. Ran a 4:02 at Pre and a 1:58 last week, she’s looking fit and more adapted to Jerry’s training this year.

Kate Grace ran 1:58 3 years ago. She ran 1:59 last week, which is a significant difference (not saying she can’t run 1:58 this season). But I do agree that she’s got a great chance for 3rd.

You must not have seen her 5000. She effortlessly pulled away the final laps after leading much of the race. She is easily sub-15.

In her Rome 1500 she was 7th, being pulled along the entire way.

Her priority is to get to Doha. Her finishing speed is not as good as at least FIVE women in the 15.It is adequate for the 5000, IF SHE IS FRESH and especially if she doesn't leave it to the final lap.

trackwonder4 wrote:

YMMV wrote:

5K will be easier to make.

I'm not so sure it will be that much easier to make. Schweizer, Hall, Conley, Schneider, Fraser, Rowbury, D'Agastino (now Cooper) all have faster PBs than Purrier. If the race turns tactical she does have slighter edge on the field however the other runners are very strength-based and not sit and kick runners so it is very unlikely the race will be slow. Additionally, if in the rare case either Simpson or Houlihan does not make the 1500 team the 5k then the event becomes even more competitive,

Unless Houlihan rubs it I don’t see anybody in shape to beat her. Sure Rowbury could have in her prime but I see her as about 8th.

She is much more likely to make it to worlds in the 5000m, no question.

She would be much more likely to medal in the 1500m over the 5000m at worlds, but getting there in the first place is more important. I think it's a smart choice.

Who is coaching Rowbury now?

ThatAverageRunner wrote:

She would be much more likely to medal in the 1500m over the 5000m at worlds.

Let's be realistic here. Purrier has no chance on medaling at either distance. None.

She would be lucky just to make it out of her round at Worlds. FOUR DAYS AGO, she lost to Shannon Osika by over a second.

Purrier has a lot of promise, but so far, that is all she has.

Meanwhile, back on earth wrote:

ThatAverageRunner wrote:

She would be much more likely to medal in the 1500m over the 5000m at worlds.

Let's be realistic here. Purrier has no chance on medaling at either distance. None.

She would be lucky just to make it out of her round at Worlds. FOUR DAYS AGO, she lost to Shannon Osika by over a second.

Purrier has a lot of promise, but so far, that is all she has.

I didn’t say she even had a slim chance to medal. I just said more likely. If she were at worlds in the 1500 and 5000m, and I had to pick which one she’d be more likely to medal in, it’d be the 1500m.

Meanwhile, back on earth wrote:

Let's be realistic here. Purrier has no chance on medaling at either distance. None.

She would be lucky just to make it out of her round at Worlds. FOUR DAYS AGO, she lost to Shannon Osika by over a second.

It is usually easier to make the Worlds final in the 5000m. With 15:-15:05 and a decent finish one is almost certain to get into the final.

And it's obviously deceiving that 4:02 looks closer to medals than 15:00. There is an additional round to survive and several sub 4:02 runners have not even made the final in 2017. 4:02 as 5th or 7th in a paced race doesn't say very much about success in a multi-round WC.

depending on the way the WC heats go, one has to run sub 4:05 two days in a row and be on top of the game at the finish not to get eliminated in a heat/semi. Very different from running 4:02 once in a paced race. Sure, slower runners have made such finales with some luck and good tactics/finish but many stronger ones have missed them.

YMMV wrote:

reer wrote:

I can envision a lot more scenarios where Purrier doesn't finish top 3 in the 1500 than I can where she doesn't finish top 3 in the 5000. Yes, she ran one really good, fast 1500 over in Europe, but she's not heads-and-tails above the non-Simpson/Houlihan athletes to where she'd be nearly a lock for the 3rd spot. In the 5000, I don't really see how she doesn't make the team, especially with her 4:02 speed. She can probably hang with any pace thrown at her by those other girls, and can also outkick most/all of them with a slow pace. If she wants valuable global championship experience, the 5000 is her best bet this year. She can still decide to drop down to the 1500 next year if she wants.

The U.S. has four 1500 spots because Shelby is an auto from last year's Diamond League.

You are wrong, Shelby is not an auto for two reasons. She did not win the over Diamond League title at 1500. I believe the was Laura Muir. Furthermore, they changed the rules where last year's diamond league champions will not receive a bye, instead the champions from this upcoming year's diamond league final will receive the auto. Remember that because worlds have been pushed back so late the diamond league finals in mid/end August remain the same.

a runner with no name wrote:

The goal is to make a team. That 15:08 was a walk away from a modest pace. She dusted the field including D'Agastino. If you watched it, she's in sub 15 shape.

The 5K team will be Schweizer, and probably Schneider, and Purrier should be right in there. Dag, Conley, Rowbury, Hall have all run faster but in the past year?

1500 with Houlihan and Simpson will be harder to make and there's a lot more left to chance/tactics in a final.

This is a good move and it's surprising to see people bellyaching about it.

DEAD ON !!!

a runner with no name wrote:

The goal is to make a team. That 15:08 was a walk away from a modest pace. She dusted the field including D'Agastino. If you watched it, she's in sub 15 shape.

The 5K team will be Schweizer, and probably Schneider, and Purrier should be right in there. Dag, Conley, Rowbury, Hall have all run faster but in the past year?

1500 with Houlihan and Simpson will be harder to make and there's a lot more left to chance/tactics in a final.

This is a good move and it's surprising to see people bellyaching about it.

Agree... Its a better chance she'll make the 5000 team

makeherpurr wrote:

a runner with no name wrote:

The goal is to make a team. That 15:08 was a walk away from a modest pace. She dusted the field including D'Agastino. If you watched it, she's in sub 15 shape.

The 5K team will be Schweizer, and probably Schneider, and Purrier should be right in there. Dag, Conley, Rowbury, Hall have all run faster but in the past year?

1500 with Houlihan and Simpson will be harder to make and there's a lot more left to chance/tactics in a final.

This is a good move and it's surprising to see people bellyaching about it.

Agree... Its a better chance she'll make the 5000 team

I actually think her chances in the 1500 are better, not just because her pR in the event is more impressive and is 3rd fastest in the field vs her 5k pr being only 8th fasted but she has way more experience in the 1500. Simpson and Houlihan just confirmed they will run both events at USA which changes how the race will go and unfold. She will be running against people in the 5k with not only more faster PBs than her but also much more experience in the event. Conley has been an uproar in fitness, ran both 1500 and 5k PBs and always pull through at championship meets. Rowbury also has been low-key and in a tactical final her 3:56 1500 speed will prove dividends. I think people are majorly underestimating how tough the 5k team will be to make. Rachel Schneider is also one with very fast 1500 speeds, she is not to be counted out (finished second by Houlihan at last years 5k and beat Schweizer in that race) Schneider has a lot of untapped potential in the 5k and we could see something special from her in Des Moines. Schweizer will be very fit and ready as well, Jerry knows how to peak his athletes well and will obviously be dangerous. Vanessa Fraser also trains will Schweizer and is certainly sub 15 5k ability along with everyone else. The 5k field is actually much more competitive than people may think, watch out because I do not seriously believe this event will not be as competitive as the 1500.

bang564 wrote:

Rachel Schneider is also one with very fast 1500 speeds, she is not to be counted out (finished second by Houlihan at last years 5k and beat Schweizer in that race) Schneider has a lot of untapped potential in the 5k and we could see something special from her in Des Moines.

Not sure if you know that, but Rachel Schneider ran a 4:20 mile in Monaco last week. She is already one of the BIG favorites in the 1500m. Ellie realized that and makes sense to go for the 5k.

I already said it last year when Schneider's workout Wednesday was posted here that she will be a force to reckon with. Simpson/Rowbury/Grace are getting older and the form she displayed in those 400/300 repeats was just perfect, a pleasure to behold.

Her only weakness was going out too fast in workouts and slowing down, but if she learns to pace better and relax she can run 3:59.

Have you looked at entries? Schneider is not entered nor declared for the 1500, she is solely running the 5k which I totally agree with. Her chances at making the 5k team much more higher than the 1500.

trackwonder4 wrote:

YMMV wrote:

5K will be easier to make.

I'm not so sure it will be that much easier to make. Schweizer, Hall, Conley, Schneider, Fraser, Rowbury, D'Agastino (now Cooper) all have faster PBs than Purrier. If the race turns tactical she does have slighter edge on the field however the other runners are very strength-based and not sit and kick runners so it is very unlikely the race will be slow. Additionally, if in the rare case either Simpson or Houlihan does not make the 1500 team the 5k then the event becomes even more competitive,

You can't be serious.

a runner with no name wrote:

The goal is to make a team. That 15:08 was a walk away from a modest pace. She dusted the field including D'Agastino. If you watched it, she's in sub 15 shape.

The 5K team will be Schweizer, and probably Schneider, and Purrier should be right in there. Dag, Conley, Rowbury, Hall have all run faster but in the past year?

1500 with Houlihan and Simpson will be harder to make and there's a lot more left to chance/tactics in a final.

This is a good move and it's surprising to see people bellyaching about it.

Schweizer will not make the team.

a runner with no name wrote:

The 5K team will be Schweizer, and probably Schneider, and Purrier should be right in there.

No Houlihan? No Simpson?

Tell me more, please.

Shows what I know wrote:

a runner with no name wrote:

The 5K team will be Schweizer, and probably Schneider, and Purrier should be right in there.

No Houlihan? No Simpson?

Tell me more, please.

Maybe they run and get top 3 but the double is impossible at World's so I just can't see them not declining their spots. I think the above poster was referring to the 3 who will actually compete in Doha. I would be SHOCKED if at least Houlihan came back and didn't get top 3 in the 5k.

Purrier is right by not running the 1500m. She's not outrunning or outkicking Houlihan, Simpson, or Grace. Maybe K Grace does the 800m. That leaves Efraimson (4:04), H Schlachtenhaufen (4:05), N Hiltz (4:05), and S Johnson (4:05 in 98 degrees). MAYBE she can outrun them, but it's certainly a gamble. Hiltz and Johnson may proven to have good kicks.

Scweizer and Schneider are 2 I expect to make the team. Schweizer looked VERY good at Azusa last Tuesday and can grind it out and Scheider's mile in Monaco converts to 4:01 high (per 1.08 conversion) and she can kick.

The 3rd spot is between K Conley, M Hall, V Frasier, and E Purrier. M Hall is doing the 10k and I expect her to make the team behind Huddle and Sisson. She's running on tired legs and may not even compete or decline her spot in the event she's top 3. Conley doesn't really have the finishing speed she used to, especially after experimenting with the marathon, maybe she comes through.

I really think it's down to Purrier and Fraser, and Purrier clearly has the better speed. The 15:08 she ran was in crappy weather, there was no crowd engagement at the meet, and she ran the last several laps alone. Put her in a DL 5k like what she got at Rome and she's sub 15 EASILY. If she ran 14:55 in Europe a few weeks ago, we wouldn't be having this discussion in the first place.