Average person's genetic potential in the 800?

Underestimating wrote:

It has to be close to 2 flat for guys I mean c'mon I ran 2:19 my first year of running as a skinny 16 yo off 20mpw of mostly easy running no way that's better than most people's genetic potential it's just that most people will never train enough to touch their genetic potential

My first impression after the above quote was that if this is true then almost every coach is horrible because after 3 years of running very few teams have their senior 800 meter runners averaging 2 minutes -the better teams should have many sub 8 minute relays. I always felt the average HS kid should run at least 2:10

However since young men don't peak until their 20s after an additional 4 years they should be able to get close to 2 minutes.

Even Average people can go on the path and . . . . DEVASTATE their competitors.

https://media.giphy.com/media/84CRvhy2DJlwA/giphy.gif

.Pure Hate Pupil.- wrote:

Even Average people can go on the path and . . . . DEVASTATE their competitors.

The average American doesn't have enough hate to go sub 2:30. It's going to look something like

1st 200 - uncertainty, 37 sec

2nd 200 - complacency, 39 sec

3rd 200 - staleness, 38 sec

4th 200 - resignation, 40 sec

Final time - 2:34

The average East African, though, has gone through so many hardships and will have a ton of pent up anger and hate. My predictions?

1st 200 - confidence, 32 sec

2nd 200 - arrogance, 31 sec

3rd 200 - resentment, 33 sec

4th 200 - rage, 32 sec

Final time? 2:08.

Underestimating wrote:

It has to be close to 2 flat for guys I mean c'mon I ran 2:19 my first year of running as a skinny 16 yo off 20mpw of mostly easy running no way that's better than most people's genetic potential it's just that most people will never train enough to touch their genetic potential

It's funny that we're seeing Kenyan marathoners running not much faster than the equivalent of 2 flat for 800m getting busted for EPO, and yet the average obese American dude could run 2 flat with a bit of proper training - obviously!

The following article is relevant, although the writer is clearly not an average guy.

What is genetic potential at 800m anyway?

Your hypothetical 800m time if you trained without injury with an elite coach full time for ten years from age 13?

Surely the ability to devote yourself to full time 800m training for years, or just the ability to avoid injuries, is part of genetic potential, and perhaps 90% of Americans wouldn't have that to get down to 2 flat?

First world vs Third world wrote:

.Pure Hate Pupil.- wrote:

Even Average people can go on the path and . . . . DEVASTATE their competitors.

The average American doesn't have enough hate to go sub 2:30. It's going to look something like

1st 200 - uncertainty, 37 sec

2nd 200 - complacency, 39 sec

3rd 200 - staleness, 38 sec

4th 200 - resignation, 40 sec

Final time - 2:34

The average East African, though, has gone through so many hardships and will have a ton of pent up anger and hate. My predictions?

1st 200 - confidence, 32 sec

2nd 200 - arrogance, 31 sec

3rd 200 - resentment, 33 sec

4th 200 - rage, 32 sec

Final time? 2:08.

+1 million, made me laugh! I'm picturing an enraged African coming around the turn into the home-stretch, arms flailing.

men - 2:45

I assume we are talking about the median, not the average time. The average time is infinity. The median male time is 3 minutes and the median female time is 3:30.

Everybody suggesting 2 flat or low 2s is absolutely tripping on god knows what.

The average person would never be able to break 14 seconds in a 100m no matter how much they trained. Maybe naturally athletic males can do it easily but most people do not have enough natural running talent to make it onto an average D3 team in any event from sprints to 10k.

The average person would probably get sub 2:40 800m with a LOT of training, and I mean a lot. Average people would probably would just as hard for that 2:39 as a more talented college middle distance runner would work for that 1:59, a fast 800m requires a relatively high VO2 max and natural foot speed - the average person does not have outstanding potentials of either trait. Most humans end up slightly faster twitch by the end of their development so perhaps the average person could be trained to run these sort of times:

Median.

100m: 14.2-14.8 (add 2-3 secs for females)

200m: 31.0 (add 3-7 secs for females)

400m. 1:08 (add 0-12 secs for females)

800m: 2:40 (add 15-30 secs for females)

Mile: 6:00 (add 30-75 secs for females)

5k: 21 (add 1-4 minutes for females)

10k: 44 (add 2-7minutes for females)

doha streaming question wrote:

Men: 3:00

Women: 3:40

With training these numbers seem right. The 800m isn't an easy race.

May I also add that these standards are if everybody trained during their prime and had a decent diet too.

For truly average (as in really AVERAGE) people which in the US is probably a 42 year old accountant with back issues and a lifetime of poor diet habits, no hope on earth of ever sniffing sub 3 minutes. Perhaps sub 5 minutes if this person could get to a decent physiologist to sort his/her chronic back issues out?

Median potential

Men (20s): 2:45

Women (20s): 3:15

Coevett wrote:

The following article is relevant

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/athletics/2019/09/23/one-non-runners-quest-make-onto-british-800m-rankings-year/

I was going to say 2:15 after reading the thread title, but I'm going to revise that down to a 2:05 after reading that article.

There is no way the median guy who is optimally trained for a decade or more would fail to achieve what he did.

Seems right wrote:

doha streaming question wrote:

Men: 3:00

Women: 3:40

With training these numbers seem right. The 800m isn't an easy race.

Anyone saying a median male time of around 3 minutes is totally nuts. The median mile time for 17 year olds is 7:04 on the presidential fitness test. Most untrained 17 year olds are better at shorter distances, so that median 800 time would be under 3 minutes.

Since 3 minutes would be an untrained time, the optimally trained time would be at least 2:20 and more likely in the 2:10 range.

Median:

100m: Low 12s

800m: 2:10

Mile: 4:55

Sources:

Sorry but anyone who ends up sub 5 or sub 2:15 800m is more talented than average, even if they were running “average” times when they did not run. A lot of guys do not have the trainability to end up sub 5.

Also, I don’t care what anyone says - 7:04 is not a real time average for all high school boys. That sample was taken from a group of active students who were willing to run and actually try. Again, above average, just think of the thousands of kids who probably skimped out on the run because there wasn’t a hope in hell they’d be able to do in in 12 minutes without being sick.

Average vo2 max of a college aged male: 40-44ml/kg

Average trainability: 15-20%.

This equals a 47-52ml/kg vo2 max fully trained.

That equals 5:40-6:20 mile ability, and you need a decent vo2 max to run a decent 800, there’s no way a person with 50 VO2max is ever running anywhere close to a 2 minute 800m.

Average is slower than you can imagine.

Finally someone with a bit of common sense. Average times are always going to involve guesswork but those suggesting times close to 2 mins are clueless.

Its hard to sat accurately because a lot of adult runners say running 16 or 17mins for 5km are very reluctant to do any speedwork like 200 or 300m reps. Online training guides don't help as they mainly seem oblivious to the fact you've got to get your mile time down to run your best over 5k. hs and college runners have a big advantage in that they have largely done middle distance training and racing before moving up in distance

No way, dude wrote:

Seems right wrote:

With training these numbers seem right. The 800m isn't an easy race.

Anyone saying a median male time of around 3 minutes is totally nuts. The median mile time for 17 year olds is 7:04 on the presidential fitness test. Most untrained 17 year olds are better at shorter distances, so that median 800 time would be under 3 minutes.

Since 3 minutes would be an untrained time, the optimally trained time would be at least 2:20 and more likely in the 2:10 range.

I ran an untrained 5:30 mile in middle school PE, so maybe I could have run 2:30. Using your formula, I should have been able to improve to 1:40, but somehow my 800 PR ended up being 2:06.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

No way, dude wrote:

Anyone saying a median male time of around 3 minutes is totally nuts. The median mile time for 17 year olds is 7:04 on the presidential fitness test. Most untrained 17 year olds are better at shorter distances, so that median 800 time would be under 3 minutes.

Since 3 minutes would be an untrained time, the optimally trained time would be at least 2:20 and more likely in the 2:10 range.

I ran an untrained 5:30 mile in middle school PE, so maybe I could have run 2:30. Using your formula, I should have been able to improve to 1:40, but somehow my 800 PR ended up being 2:06.

Your percentages are off. 2:10 is 72.2% of 3:00, but 1:40 is 66.7% of 2:30. It's also a lot harder to improve once you break 2 regardless of how fast you are initially.

Besides, you probably didn't train specifically for the 800, or you didn't race it often. Me and two of my teammates ran in the 2:00 - 2:10 range, and none of us ran under 2:40 in middle school.