Kipchoge - Doping, cheating, or a natural?

The request was to please provide evidence for accusations/insinuations, not suspicion.

Reali wrote:

Ctrl+Alt+Del wrote:

Can you please provide evidence to any of your accusations/insinuations?

Thank you.

The fact that he beat the WR by over minute isn't suspicious to you? ?

What a funny way to say "no, I cannot" wrote:

The request was to please provide evidence for accusations/insinuations, not suspicion.

He's providing plenty of circumstantial evidence...read what he says then apply it to common sense of what we know with the Kenyan doping problem.

He could just say "Oh....I think he's doping because he's an elite who runs a very fast marathon." But instead of just a blanket statement like that he's providing circumstantial evidence on specific points. If there's some points you think are invalid then why not discuss them?

If there was an answer readily available, then why change the subject, by asking a different question about "suspicion"? If it's already there, why not just answer the question, referring to the evidence already given, rather than suggesting that suspicion alone is evidence enough? Can you quote or highlight the parts that are "circumstantial" evidence?

What a funny way to say "I don't understand circumstantial evide wrote:

What a funny way to say "no, I cannot" wrote:

The request was to please provide evidence for accusations/insinuations, not suspicion.

He's providing plenty of circumstantial evidence...read what he says then apply it to common sense of what we know with the Kenyan doping problem.

He could just say "Oh....I think he's doping because he's an elite who runs a very fast marathon." But instead of just a blanket statement like that he's providing circumstantial evidence on specific points. If there's some points you think are invalid then why not discuss them?

Circumstantial evidence aplenty:

1: "So he came from nowhere to beat Bekele and El Guerrouj in a championship race in 12:52"

2: "He ran 12:46, a time that reeks of 'epo era' "

3: "and then there is his 2:01, a time that is soooooo juiced it isn't even funny."

4: "The fact he lives in Kenya,"

5: "trains in an extremely remote location,"

6: "went backwards after the ABP was introduced,"

This is evidence that 1:, 2:, 3: he can run fast, and 4:, 5: that he lives and trains in Kenya. "6:" cannot be evidence, because it is untrue. Anything more is insinuation.

lots of circumstantial evidence provided wrote:

Circumstantial evidence aplenty:

1: "So he came from nowhere to beat Bekele and El Guerrouj in a championship race in 12:52"

2: "He ran 12:46, a time that reeks of 'epo era' "

3: "and then there is his 2:01, a time that is soooooo juiced it isn't even funny."

4: "The fact he lives in Kenya,"

5: "trains in an extremely remote location,"

6: "went backwards after the ABP was introduced,"

What a funny way to say "no, I cannot" wrote:

This is evidence that 1:, 2:, 3: he can run fast, and 4:, 5: that he lives and trains in Kenya.

"6:" cannot be evidence, because it is untrue.

6: "went backwards after the ABP was introduced,"

Runs 12:52 at 18 years old in the Bislett Games and then beats the two EPO GOATS in the 5000 final at the World Championships the same year.

Runs 12:46 the next year and bronze behind the two EPO GOATS at the Olympics.

Between 2005 and 2008 with the advent of EPO testing, he wins a couple of major silver medals behind Lagat and Bekele respectively. His times do go backwards, but not spectacularly so.

After 2008 (when he should be entering his peak, and when the ABP was introduced in 2009) he does decline fairly markedly, with the exception of the season opener at 'Doping' Doha in 2010 where he runs 12:51. No longer a threat to medal, comes 7th at the 2011 WC and fails to qualify for the Kenyan team in 2012, making him decide to switch to the roads.

Has there ever been any other athlete whose career peaks were their late teens and their late thirties?

I always thought Kipchoge might be one of the Kenyan athletes least likely to dope, but the more I look at his career, I have to agree with Subway 100%.

I also thought that out of El G, Bekele, and him, he was the most likely to be clean, but it seems much more likely that Bekele was clean. Although both managed by the infamous Jos Hermans.

The consistency is actually what raises a flag for me. He only races twice a year now, each time without fail he is unstoppable. We're talking like 6 years now of marathoning at a level never seen before. Rupp gets no end of doping accusations but at least he races more often and his progression is reasonably logical.

I'm not as certain that the shoes are all that. Recall he ran 204 flat in Berlin with the soles of his shoes hanging out the back of his shoes!

I still think anyone at the top of their sport, where that sport is highly athletic or endurance based, is at the very least in the grey area with what they are doing.

Kipchoge still ran a fast 3K in 2011, a fast 10K in 2011, and a fast 5K indoors in 2011 and outdoors in 2012. It is rare that an athlete has such a long term career, but for those athletes that remain uninjured for so long, the usual sequence historically is to go up in distance on the track, then go to the roads. Geb is another example of someone similarly excelling from Junior to the marathon. Bekele too, except for a few years of injury in between.

Had to see it to believe it! Beats El G at the line...WOW! Plus he destroyed another full-throttle Morrocan in Goumri! That was one crazy WC! El G dethroned by 18 yr old Kipchoge! ?

The fact is that Kipchoge peaked at the 5000m when aged 18/19. After another 3 or 4 years, he markedly declined.

Nothing extraordinary in that, I guess. He wouldn't be the first junior star to peak early and slowly burn out.

Except he certainly wasn't burnt out, was he?

His career would make a little more sense if he (as many suspect) was an age cheat junior. But then if he was willing to cheat about his age, why wouldn't he cheat with peds too?

Hard to believe wrote:

Had to see it to believe it! Beats El G at the line...WOW! Plus he destroyed another full-throttle Morrocan in Goumri! That was one crazy WC! El G dethroned by 18 yr old Kipchoge! ?

https://youtu.be/xjlqokZ_Xgk

Did El G make a tactical mistake in that race going for home from 800m out? Or was it because it was a fast paced race and he felt his kick wouldn't be there in the last lap so he had to go early?

He certainly had learnt his lesson in the rematch the following year.

Dear sir, I appreciate your post which is full of relevant data.

But still, there is no evidence that Mr. Kipchoge has used any performance enhancing drugs during his career.

Therefore, the post by message board user "Subway Surfers" is nothing but a pile of manure. Your insinuations/accusations seem to be headed the same way even if I understand your bias in the face of recent doping bans.

I respect your doubts. After all, there have been some high-profile doping busts in the past 10 years (more so in 2017/18).

But in this case there is nothing on Kipchoge.

I still don't like the fact that he wore the 4%ers, but anyway....

Coevett wrote:

The fact is that Kipchoge peaked at the 5000m when aged 18/19. After another 3 or 4 years, he markedly declined.

Nothing extraordinary in that, I guess. He wouldn't be the first junior star to peak early and slowly burn out.

Except he certainly wasn't burnt out, was he?

His career would make a little more sense if he (as many suspect) was an age cheat junior. But then if he was willing to cheat about his age, why wouldn't he cheat with peds too?

I don't think he burned out, he ran sub 13 every season for 10 years or so. But he never was better talent at the 5000m than his competitors, the only reason he won in 2003 is because Bekele and El G sucked that day. He didn't get lucky again, but stayed competitive winning some medals here and there - until he found out what he was really good at and switched to the road.

I also don't think it's plausible that he declined at 5000m because of increased doping controls and ABP, and then somehow found a way to dope while running marathons. He has been the #1 marathoner for so many years now and should be the most tested athlete in Kenya. It's not proof of not doping of course, but he must be tested much more now than in 2012 when he wouldn't even make the Kenyan team. So how would cheating be easier for him now and how would it explain his continuous success in the marathon?

Letsrun.com - deluded, deluded or deluded.

Ctrl+Alt+Del wrote:

Dear sir, I appreciate your post which is full of relevant data.

But still, there is no evidence that Mr. Kipchoge has used any performance enhancing drugs during his career.

Therefore, the post by message board user "Subway Surfers" is nothing but a pile of manure. Your insinuations/accusations seem to be headed the same way even if I understand your bias in the face of recent doping bans.

I respect your doubts. After all, there have been some high-profile doping busts in the past 10 years (more so in 2017/18).

But in this case there is nothing on Kipchoge.

I still don't like the fact that he wore the 4%ers, but anyway....

Yeah...that's an understatement - when did you first realize that? Lol.

What is the point of all this "please provide me with the evidence" talk? We all know he hasn't had an actual positive test (or if he has, it never went public). Nobody is going to say, "no, actually I ran some blood tests on him privately that were positive for EPO, and here is a link to them..." So, you're free to believe or not believe based on what seems reasonable to you, but at least realize that when people are asked to speculate whether an athlete with no positive tests is cheating or not, there is a limit to the type of evidence they can possibly provide.

What a funny way to say "no, I cannot" wrote:

The request was to please provide evidence for accusations/insinuations, not suspicion.

Reali wrote:

The fact that he beat the WR by over minute isn't suspicious to you? ?

"Evidence" is a misunderstood concept. Evidence can be something as simple as a statistical unlikelihood. "Evidence" and "proof" are not synonymous, and evidence ranges from weak to strong. The fact that he has put up outlier performances in a sport with a strong history of doping is evidence. Whether it is strong or weak evidence is probably up to the beholder, and it certainly isn't proof that he doped. But it is evidence.

As much as I hate to say it, I wouldn't be surprised if he possibly was doped back in the mid-early 2000s when young. My hope is that he has been off for quite some time.

I still don't like that he only races at the WMMs though. Why does he never have any road 10ks or half-marathons or other off distances?

For the 2:01:39, yes, aided by the shoes. But as been pointed out, he's run very fast without them. He doesn't need the shoes to be the best.