Half Marathon Prediction

UPDATE:

On Sunday I ran a long run of 15 miles at 7:03 pace. I would say this effort was "steady". Was a bit tired at the end, never run this far before.

On Monday I ran 8 miles easy.

On Tuesday I ran 6x1 mile with 3 mins jog recovery (I ran this on a 2000m road loop, I so had to job 400m in 3 mins otherwise I wouldn't be back at the starting point). My splits were 5:38, 5:39, 5:39, 5:40, 5:38 and 5:30.

On Wednesday I ran an easy 8 miles.

Just now I ran a hard 10K on my own on the roads in 36:35. Conditions for the race will probably be almost identical to today.

Do people still think I can run sub 1:20 for the half marathon? I am still worried that 1:20 is too fast and I'll blow up if I try and go that fast.

All advice appreciated. Thanks!

Laurenceheyes@yahoo.com

wrote:

UPDATE:

On Sunday I ran a long run of 15 miles at 7:03 pace. I would say this effort was "steady". Was a bit tired at the end, never run this far before.

On Monday I ran 8 miles easy.

On Tuesday I ran 6x1 mile with 3 mins jog recovery (I ran this on a 2000m road loop, I so had to job 400m in 3 mins otherwise I wouldn't be back at the starting point). My splits were 5:38, 5:39, 5:39, 5:40, 5:38 and 5:30.

On Wednesday I ran an easy 8 miles.

Just now I ran a hard 10K on my own on the roads in 36:35. Conditions for the race will probably be almost identical to today.

Do people still think I can run sub 1:20 for the half marathon? I am still worried that 1:20 is too fast and I'll blow up if I try and go that fast.

All advice appreciated. Thanks!

Good lord, yes. I will revise any of my "conservative" advice from before and say that as long as you're not turning yourself out you should target something around 1:18. Long run of 15, easy 8, mile repeats, easy 8, then 10k hard tempo is a very tough stretch. As long as you're not fried by the time you get to starting line, sub 1:20 is too conservative.

Try to hit 38 for 10k and/or 57 for 15k and then push if you feel good.

Your 10k/10m times should be good for 1:20, your workout is good for more. And there is always another race if you had more in the tank.

I ran 1:17 with similar workouts and a couple extra miles a week. Just keep it around low 6:00/mi for the first half and if you’re feeling good pick up the pace.

Good lord, yes. I will revise any of my "conservative" advice from before and say that as long as you're not turning yourself out you should target something around 1:18. Long run of 15, easy 8, mile repeats, easy 8, then 10k hard tempo is a very tough stretch. As long as you're not fried by the time you get to starting line, sub 1:20 is too conservative.

--> I have a months left before my race, so decided that this week and next will be my last hard weeks of training before I start tapering in the last three weeks. I was planning on running 10x1k repeats next Tuesday and then 3x3 mile at about 6 minutes pace off 60 seconds rest on Thursday as my last hard workouts before starting to taper.

Thanks! That sounds like a good sensible race plan! I'll give that a shot and report back on how it goes!

You ran 1:17 on similar workouts? What workouts were you doing? What times were you hitting? And how did you taper? I have never tapered before and I have no idea what I'm doing.

Eight weeks out I did a 10 mile tempo in 1:04 and five weeks out I ran 6x1 mile at 5:45. Three weeks before I ran a 10k race in 36:10 with a minimal taper. My long runs were 16-18 miles but that's probably the biggest difference. Honestly I figured I was in 1:19 shape so 1:17 was a bit of a surprise but you've definitely got it in the bag as long as you don't go too fast in the beginning. Don't overthink the taper. Just keep doing what you're doing but less of it the week before the race.

Laurenceheyes@yahoo.com

wrote:

UPDATE:

On Sunday I ran a long run of 15 miles at 7:03 pace. I would say this effort was "steady". Was a bit tired at the end, never run this far before.

On Monday I ran 8 miles easy.

On Tuesday I ran 6x1 mile with 3 mins jog recovery (I ran this on a 2000m road loop, I so had to job 400m in 3 mins otherwise I wouldn't be back at the starting point). My splits were 5:38, 5:39, 5:39, 5:40, 5:38 and 5:30.

On Wednesday I ran an easy 8 miles.

Just now I ran a hard 10K on my own on the roads in 36:35. Conditions for the race will probably be almost identical to today.

Do people still think I can run sub 1:20 for the half marathon? I am still worried that 1:20 is too fast and I'll blow up if I try and go that fast.

All advice appreciated. Thanks!

Your training is very solid - the mile repeats indicate you could even run close to 1:15 if you have the endurance. A 1-2 week taper is all that is really needed for a Half. Definitely don't taper too much - you could still hit a fairly hard workout 10 days out from the race.

UPDATE: This is probably the last time I will up date this before the actual race.

All of these workouts are on those very windy and hilly roads.

On Saturday I ran a long run of just over 14 miles. I ran the first 8 miles at a steady 7:03 pace (felt really great, smooth and easy), and then I tried to pick up the pace for the last 6. I have never done a session like this before, and found it really challenging. I ended up running: 7:13, 7:04, 7:04, 7:00. 7:00, 7:01, 7:04, 6:59, then 6:51, 6:27, 6:30, 6:42 (that horrible mile), 6:04 (massive downhill), 6:19, and then I ran the last 500m at like 5:35 pace. Total 23K.

On Sunday I ran just over 8 miles at 7:01-7:02 pace. Felt good.

On Tuesday I ran almost 9 miles at probably 7:08 per mile, felt OK, just took it a bit easier.

Today I ran 4 x 2 mile with 2 mins rest. I was aim to run them at just under goal half marathon to give myself a bit of confidence (the race will be much flatter and I'll be tapered). 1:20 half marathon pace is like 6:06, so I aimed for 6:00 flat.

The first two miles are uphill overall, and I didn't want to go out way to fast, so I ran 6:01 and 6:00 flat.

The next two are also an overall uphill. The first of these two miles is my least favourite as it's just uncomfortable and there is usually a horrible crosswind, so I deliberately ran it harder to keep myself at 6:00 pace. I accidentally went too fast and ran a 5:48. Realising that was probably a bad idea, I eased off a bit and ran a 5:56 4th mile.

The next two miles are downhill overall and I felt great, running 5:49 for the 5th mile. However, again being worried I would crash and burn at the end, eased off a little and ran a 5:54 6th mile.

The 7th mile was downhill overall, but undulating. Feeling good, I ran quick and relaxed, going through the 7th mile in 5:49. The final mile is horrible, it's a 1/4 mile undulating, a 1/4 mile down and then 1/2 a mile up a really steep hill. I felt alright until the last 500m, where things got though, although I was pleased that I still went through it under goal pace in 5:59. Overall. it was a good workout, running faster than expected. I was only breathing really hard during the last 500m, and my legs started hurting then too.

Do people still think I'm capable of running sub 1:20 for a race on the 30th of September? What workouts should I be doing from now until then? How should I taper and for how long? All advice appreciated! Thanks a lot!

UPDATE: This is probably the last time I will up date this before the actual race.

All of these workouts were done on those very windy and hilly roads.

On Saturday I ran a long run of just over 14 miles. I ran the first 8 miles at a steady 7:03 pace (felt really great, smooth and easy), and then I tried to pick up the pace for the last 6. I have never done a session like this before, and found it really challenging. I ended up running: 7:13, 7:04, 7:04, 7:00. 7:00, 7:01, 7:04, 6:59, then 6:51, 6:27, 6:30, 6:42 (that horrible mile), 6:04 (massive downhill), 6:19, and then I ran the last 500m at like 5:35 pace. Total 23K.

On Sunday I ran just over 8 miles at 7:01-7:02 pace. Felt good.

On Tuesday I ran almost 9 miles at probably 7:08 per mile, felt OK, just took it a bit easier.

Today I ran 4 x 2 mile with 2 mins rest. I was aim to run them at just under goal half marathon to give myself a bit of confidence (the race will be much flatter and I'll be tapered). 1:20 half marathon pace is like 6:06, so I aimed for 6:00 flat.

The first two miles are uphill overall, and I didn't want to go out way to fast, so I ran 6:01 and 6:00 flat.

The next two are also an overall uphill. The first of these two miles is my least favourite as it's just uncomfortable and there is usually a horrible crosswind, so I deliberately ran it harder to keep myself at 6:00 pace. I accidentally went too fast and ran a 5:48. Realising that was probably a bad idea, I eased off a bit and ran a 5:56 4th mile.

The next two miles are downhill overall and I felt great, running 5:49 for the 5th mile. However, again being worried I would crash and burn at the end, eased off a little and ran a 5:54 6th mile.

The 7th mile was downhill overall, but undulating. Feeling good, I ran quick and relaxed, going through the 7th mile in 5:49. The final mile is horrible, it's a 1/4 mile undulating, a 1/4 mile down and then 1/2 a mile up a really steep hill. I felt alright until the last 500m, where things got tough, although I was pleased that I still went through it under goal pace in 5:59. Overall. it was a good workout, running faster than expected. I was only breathing really hard during the last 500m, and my legs started hurting then too.

Today I ran 14k at like 7:05 pace. Felt pretty good! Thought I would hurt form yesterday but I didn't.

Tomorrow I was going to run a hard VO2 max workout, probably something like 8-10 x 1km with 4/5 mins rest at like 5:15-20 pace? I think that would put me a like 3:20-15 per k. I have really done any really fast stuff in this whole build up so I thought I'd try something new. Not sure how that's gonna feel on half marathon legs lol.

Do people still think I'm capable of running sub 1:20 for a race on the 30th of September? What workouts should I be doing from now until then? How should I taper and for how long? All advice appreciated! Thanks a lot!

Stop re-posting what you already posted. You already got all the input you need.

Bump. How did the race end up?

InsertNameHere wrote:

Bump. How did the race end up?

So I ran 1:19:34. My splits were 6:04, 6:02, 6:00, 5:59, 5:57, 6:04, 5:51, 6:14, 6:09, 5:56, 6:10, 6:10, 6:06, 50 seconds.

I’m happy because I still ran under 1:20, even if I reckon I had the potential to go faster.

I came down with a cold like two-three days before the race and I had a bad stomach this morning, but nothing too serious, so I just had a couple of stomach tablets and headed off to the race.

Mile one felt great. It was quite crowded at the beginning, and I was a good few rows back. I ran the first 200-300 meters st like 6:20 pace, and was a bit worried than I was going too slowly. I pick it up to about 6:15 pace and the we headed up the first hill. I ran up the hill steadily, passing lots of people. I passed even more people stretching out down the other side of the hill, making the first mile split quicker than I had planned, a 6:04 mile.

Mile two felt great. I was still passing people and just kept at like 6:05ish pace, I pushed up the hills a little to keep my pace more constant and was happy to see a 6:02 second mile.

Mile three felt great too, I was barely breathing (especially compared to those around me), and was sticking to my plan, a 6:00 mile.

Mile four was up hill, so I knew I’d have to pick it up here. It was also quite windy which was annoying. People were slowing already, probably from starting way too hard, and so I couldn’t really use anyone as a windshield. Anyway, a 5:59 mile right on pace.

Mile five flattened out a bit and I wa starting to catch club runners who didn’t go out too fast and were therefore running a constant pace, which helped. I kept my effort the same and was happy to see a 5:57 mile.

Mile six went into a park with some ups and downs. I kept pushing a little on the uphills and stretching out a little on the downhills, but I took it slightly too easy, a 6:04 mile.

Mile seven had the biggest uphill and the biggest downhill on the course. I made a deliberate effort to work harder on the big uphill and catch a few people in front of me, which I did. I then made an effort to stretch out on the downhill, which I did too. Probably went up the hill a bit too hard, a 5:51 mile.

Mile eight is where things changed. I started to have some serious doubts about whether I would be able to continue running this pace for another 6 miles, and ended up easing up a bit, not entirely deliberately. Two Germans that I passed on the downhill caught up to me and we ran as a 3 for a while. A 6:14 mile.

Mile nine went into another park. I was still going through a bad patch, so kept my foot off the gas peddle. However, about half way through this mile when we went up a slight hill I had a second wind, and put a gap on the Germans, a 6:09 mile.

I felt better again now. We left the park early into the tenth mile, and we started along a long slightly downhill straight road. I deliberately didn’t pick it up too much in case I blew up at the end. A 5:56 mile.

Mile eleven started well, I was holding my pace, kind of. But I soon started feeling too hot (I was wearing a thin wind jacket), and light headed, so I eased off a little. I also lost a good 2-5 seconds by almost running the wrong way, stopping and starting again. A 6:10 mile.

Mile twelve started well, but I started to become very light headed at about 11.3 miles. I was thinking “oh dear, I still have a long way to go”. I checked my watch and saw that I had averaged 6:03 pace up to this point, so knew I would break 1:20:00 even if I slowed a little, so I did to ensure that I didn’t faint or anything. I had basically been passing people the entire race, but people started coming past me now. My Garmin was showing 6:30 pace a points, so although it was a slow mile at 6:10, I was pleasantly surprised.

I was feeling very light headed now in mile thirteen and just wanted to safely finish. More people were passing me (including one of the two Germans) but I tried to keep things consistent. Again, I was expecting a 6:30 mile or something, but was amazed when I saw I ran a 6:06.

I started to pick things up with just over 200m to go, and passed a bunch of people (including that German) for a fast(ish) finish. I felt weak and dizzy when I really picked it up, but crossed the finish line. I saw 1:19:51 on the clock, but the official time was quicker because I started so far back.

I suddenly started to feel unwell on the train home, and after I got home I had really bad dirrahea. That might be why I started to get lightheaded and dizzy.

All in all, I’m happy I achieved my sun 1:20:00 goal, although I know I could have gone faster. Already registered for two halfs next March, with:

C Goal - 1:14:59

B Goal - 1:12:59

A Goal - 1:11:59

Reckon I can do it if I train hard this winter.