What will Jakob Ingebrigtsen's 1500 and 5000 PRs be at the end of his career?

Ffhhh wrote:

He’s not a 5k runner. Probably never will be in the top times of distances above the mile. Kipchoge in his age clocked 12:52

Imagine how soyed you'd have to be to actually believe this.

Kipchoge was and is your "typical" elite Kenyan. As a "teenager" was was already in his 20s and already loaded with dope, courtesy of the corrupt Italian coaches/managers that have infiltrated Kenyan athletes. It's insulting to compare J.I. to such frauds.

Runnergrl wrote:

(...)

What would happen if his coach took the longer approach? It’s too bad because we will most likely never know.

Gjert did take the longer approach, but with that kind of talent and ability to take trainingloads, in the end (e.g. this year) Jakob was allowed to train as much as his brothers.

All of you people saying he's gonna run 3:24-3:25 are nuts. Like some others have already stated, Jakob's family has been quoted saying that he's been training like a pro for the last 7-8 years; the odds of him having the longevity to develop into a WR holder are INCREDIBLY slim, let alone the fact that it would take some CRAZY drugs for him to progress 5-7 seconds in the 1500m at this high of a level (that's not to say I think he's doping, I think he's clean but just a Ryun-type).

I'm with whoever said he could end up like Jim Ryun, peaking super early. I think Jakob will still be really good, maybe even a world championship medalist or world champion in his future, but I think there's a very low chance he makes it past 3:29 and 13:00. He just doesn't have the years left in his legs to run as fast as some of you guys think, and it's not as if he hasn't hit puberty so we're basically watching a young adult run. Past puberty, those massive improvements are few and far between. They happen, just probably not to a 3:31 guy.

A fair number of college runners who broke 4 this year were running close to 4:10 in HS and had hit puberty at 16 and they were training at a high level in HS. If they can cut more than 10 seconds, he can cut 5.

Predictor wrote:

A fair number of college runners who broke 4 this year were running close to 4:10 in HS and had hit puberty at 16 and they were training at a high level in HS. If they can cut more than 10 seconds, he can cut 5.

That’s a pretty poor comparison.

4:10 isn’t 3:31. A high schooler isn’t a professional. New college runners have new coaches and training.

But see that’s the problem. You only have a a few years to train like a “Pro”. By the time he’s 27 Jacob would have 18-20 years of pro training behind him.

Hey I’m hoping I’m wrong but I see him burning out early. Unless he steps back his training.

Runnergrl wrote:

Jacob has been training much differently than Galen. Galen at the age of 17 was not training like Pro. Alberto always wanted Galen peak to be for the marathon. So he kept Galen back so his peak would be later.

Jacob is a great runner but he’s been training like a pro for awhile now. I believe he will peak much faster than Galen. Besides the 5 k was never Galens best event.

I actually wish Jacob step back his training a bit. We don’t want him burning out by the time he’s 25.

Lets talk about this young man. He's brash, he likes to run from the front and is not afraid.

He may not run world record type of times but what he showed the last few days is that he is a championship runner.

I crown him the modern day "Pre". The sport needs a young up and coming front runner like this.

He clearly has crazy potential, but it's too early to get hyped up about exactly how fast he will go. It's all too easy to get injured or just burnt out. I hope he has a long & successful career but let the kid get to at least 19 before betting on WRs!

Runnergrl wrote:

Jacob has been training much differently than Galen. Galen at the age of 17 was not training like Pro. Alberto always wanted Galen peak to be for the marathon. So he kept Galen back so his peak would be later.

Jacob is a great runner but he’s been training like a pro for awhile now. I believe he will peak much faster than Galen. Besides the 5 k was never Galens best event.

I actually wish Jacob step back his training a bit. We don’t want him burning out by the time he’s 25.

What? Burning out? This isn't something you know too much about. They are doing mainly treshold training, pretty hard to burn out from controlled workouts with little lactate. This isn't Alan Webb.

Look at his brothers, always improving if not for injury. Even with last two years operating his hamstring and not being able to run fast in training, Henrik is still improving in the 5k and one of the best in europe in the 1500m.

Runnergrl wrote:

But see that’s the problem. You only have a a few years to train like a “Pro”. By the time he’s 27 Jacob would have 18-20 years of pro training behind him.

Hey I’m hoping I’m wrong but I see him burning out early. Unless he steps back his training.

Completely wrong.

18 years of pro training when he is 27 means he started training like a pro as a 9 year old. Are you trolling? He started training when he was 11. But "pro" training, actually "pro" training workout load isn't something he did before 15/16. He did indeed go to training camps with his brothers (and thats what they mean by "pro"), but his training workload was nothing like a pro.

20 years of pro training when hes 27 means he started training as a pro when he was 7. What are you on haha

That’s the story for dozens of East Africans who won global medals and set records. Even now, they churn out new faces to replace the old guard. Why do you need Jakob if they already fill that niche?

No not trolling. He has wonderful talent BUT he 17 and already been training very hard for years now. Even his brothers have said he’s been training for years.

How long can one sustain that? He started training when he was 11??? Normally you have about 7-8 years of hard training to get to where you will be the best you can be. He is there already. If he had been just running around a soccer field at 11 this would be a whole different story.

3:25.5

12:52

Sanjay Gupta wrote:

New Pre wrote:

Lets talk about this young man. He's brash, he likes to run from the front and is not afraid.

He may not run world record type of times but what he showed the last few days is that he is a championship runner.

I crown him the modern day "Pre". The sport needs a young up and coming front runner like this.

That’s the story for dozens of East Africans who won global medals and set records. Even now, they churn out new faces to replace the old guard. Why do you need Jakob if they already fill that niche?

Because they have lousy testing in East Africa.

Runnergrl wrote:

Normally you have about 7-8 years of hard training to get to where you will be the best you can be. He is there already.

I think you're looking at this all wrong. Maybe it is because people start "hard training" when they are 20-22 or so and then are sort of getting old 8 years later.

Runnergrl wrote:

But see that’s the problem. You only have a a few years to train like a “Pro”. By the time he’s 27 Jacob would have 18-20 years of pro training behind him.

Hey I’m hoping I’m wrong but I see him burning out early. Unless he steps back his training.

According to Steve Cram, Jakob was only allowed to train with his brothers at age 13. To those saying he's been trained wrong- get freaking real. He's already done something nobody else has done (European 800/1500 double). He's already won a European 1500, which Coe never did.

329 1253. The amazing end of predictions would be 327 and 1245 IMO. These are all amazing times which would put anyone in contention to medal at big events. He'll get a bit better at the 5k with time. Could easily win a world or even Olympic medal at some point. It would be awesome to see someone take down doper El Gs and doper Bekele records but they're records for a reason and I hate it when people blindly disrespect records by posting stupid predictions.

Coevett wrote:

He's already done something nobody else has done (European 800/1500 double). He's already won a European 1500, which Coe never did.

lol @ know-nothing Coevett

osm wrote:

Post your predictions here.

3:29.0

12:56

3:28 / 12:51

The 5k will be the drug free world record. No one clean has run under 12:54 to this date.

He needs to show us improvement in the 800 to hit that 3:28. Without EPO cheats like Lagat who couldn't crack 1:46 even when chasing the best in the world. Of course the apologists make up all kinds of excuses and provide bizarre explanations. Mo Farah is an even more hilarious example of this.

However Jakob may not ever medal at the Olympics or WCs if officials continue the recent let up in the minimal testing E. Africans go through - all due to trying to play off the Kiprop mess. The only way he'll win major titles is for drugs to be eliminated for the most part or to be in the right type of tactical race - like the Rio 1500 - in which the dopers' advantages are negated.