Sub 2 45 marathon feasibility

Your training is geared to HM performance, which will slow your marathon time. Even optimally trained marathoners can perform at a level of 2 minutes plus their HM times 2, so (1:23+0:02)*2=2:50 (best case scenario with optimized marathon training). I believe you can reduce your time to 1:21 within 18 weeks, but the same issue exists that the training will be more targeted to HM performance. You will likely run +4-5 minutes with the 1:21 training, so 2:50-2:52. Even if you completely optimized training to target the marathon you are still looking at a 2:50 at best with a 1:23 (you should run another HM to gauge fitness 4 weeks from the target race).

angryjohnny wrote:

Good luck. Are you running Chicago?

It's going to be a German one, originally planned Cologne (Köln), in exactly 18 weeks on Sunday.

But recently very tempted to run Frankfurt.

I have to make a choice in 2-3 weeks.

Good luck on your marathon! I am following this thread because my ultimate goal is a sub-2:45 marathon as well(to qualify for Berlin and Tokyo) with my next marathon being NYC. I tried but failed at Boston (2:54) in April due to the extremely cold weather. I ran a mid-1:18 Half last November in good conditions and have a 2:52 PR from Chicago last year. I was able to do a 22 mile long run training for Boston at 6:16 pace on rolling hills. It is interesting to read what kind of workouts sub-2:45 marathoners are doing.

To hit that sub 2:45 -

I did about 5 20-22 milers. They varied. The first one was just a straight run to get through it. Tempos were added with some variety.

So for instance, as I was approaching a half, I did 2x5K @ goal HM pace in the middle of a half. (so for me at the time, that would have been somewhere in the neighborhood of 5:48 pace, give or take).

Another, we did 2 miles warm up, then 10 miles at MP, then easy miles after.

This then turned into 6 miles warm up, 13 miles at goal MP, 2-3 mile cool down. The goal was to be comfortable with MP on tired legs by the end of it.

We also did mid-week tempos. Usually 4-6 miles on rolling hill courses. Hill repeats thrown in there as well, it varied week by week. My pace would usually be around 5:45-5:35 pace by the time I was really coming around. 5:30 if I wanted to really push it harder and there weren't a ton of hills.

And then track. Usually 10K of quality volume. Pace again varied. Sometimes 5K efforts, other times it would be up to say LT pace.

The goal with all of the workouts was - get miles on the legs each week, hard miles on tired legs, and focus on making yourself comfortable at a pace slightly harder than your goal MP.

To the OP - you need to make a 6 minute pace feel like it's a mere acceleration in the middle of an everyday, casual run. It should be something you feel you can sustain forever without needing fuel or any kind of support. Master that, hit a bunch of miles, and you will be able to handle 6:15 for 26.2 .

I can't stress this enough though. To run a good marathon - you need high weekly mileage. There is no substitute. If you aren't at 70, get there. Be prepared to run 80.

It takes months to appreciate how that much volume really helps your running, which is why I said earlier 6-8 months to hit a sub 2:45 if you start trying to crush the stuff today.

Listen to NE Runner wrote:

Another, we did 2 miles warm up, then 10 miles at MP, then easy miles after.

This then turned into 6 miles warm up, 13 miles at goal MP, 2-3 mile cool down. The goal was to be comfortable with MP on tired legs by the end of it.

Yes I agree that I need to increase my mileage, and of course to focus in making target MP pace easy.

Those 2 workouts above aren't that easy, 13 miles at MP, may leave legs heavy for a 3 days. But yes, if you can handle it without any issue it would give plenty of physical and mental benefits.

My strength was in my long runs 18-20 miles close at MP, (ie. MP + 10/15 sec/km), and a midweek 10 miles at MP

Thanks for the advice. Thinking back to my Boston training cycle.. I did several 7-10 mile tempo runs at sub-MP/MP (as fast as 10 miles @ 5:46 on the track to 10 miles @ 6:00-6:15 on the road with rolling hills). I did one 22 mile long run on rolling hills at MP (6:16) and 3 20-21 mile long runs at my original planned MP (6:27-6:29) every other weekend. I ran slower moderate pace 16-20 mile long runs (6:40-7:20) the other weekends. I did weekly track workouts (6x1, 4x1.5, 3x2, 2x3, 6x1200, 8x1000, 10x800) at VO2 Max pace(5:10-5:30) to LT pace(5:30-5:50). I went up to 120 miles peak week did several weeks in the 90-110 mile range with otherwise mostly easy/recovery pace running (7:15-8:00). I thought I was possibly in shape for 2:45 (and definitely for a sub-2:50) but the cold weather just destroyed me... plus I lost over a minute because my shoelaces came untied and I had trouble retying them.. ended up with a 2:54. Hopefully the weather at NYC will be more favorable and another training cycle will get me to a solid sub-2:45 fitness.

Bruin1996 wrote:

I thought I was possibly in shape for 2:45 (and definitely for a sub-2:50) but the cold weather just destroyed me... plus I lost over a minute because my shoelaces came untied and I had trouble retying them.. ended up with a 2:54. Hopefully the weather at NYC will be more favorable and another training cycle will get me to a solid sub-2:45 fitness.

NYC and Boston aren't for PBs, both of them have variable weather and they aren't flat.

After so much work I would pick a fast course or after 7/8 weeks after Boston I would have tried another marathon just to run in a time closer to your real fitness. - But I can also understand that sometimes it's very hard to find time for that.

My wife has set a limit of 2 marathons a year (my main limiting factor) for me and my current goal is to run all of the World Marathon Majors for now. I would like to go sub-2:45 on a World Marathon Major and I realize I may not get there but it’s a goal worth training for. I will probably need to be in low-2:40’s fitness to sub-2:45 at NYC. London and Berlin (and even Tokyo) are faster courses that I can go for sub-2:45 if I miss it at NYC.

Why stress out about pace so far away from race day? Train smart for the next 10 weeks and then use a shorter race to determine a reasonable goal.

Bruin1996 wrote:

My wife has set a limit of 2 marathons a year (my main limiting factor) for me and my current goal is to run all of the World Marathon Majors for now. I would like to go sub-2:45 on a World Marathon Major

Fair enough. In my case my body has dictated the limit to 2, but this year I haven't run any marathon because the aim was to gain some speed and focus only on an Autumn marathon. I'm a bit tired of staying broken for a month after a flat out marathon.

Originally the plan was to try to gain some speed this Spring and then build the Autumn marathon.

This year I've done 2 half, one in March and one in May and actually the second was slower :'(

Anyway, in the very long term I'd like to run the 6 majors too.. For now I did only NY.

I've read that also Tokyo may have some windy weather.

But, my mind works slight differently, if I am in the best form of my life I want to run a fast marathon possibly flat and with reasonably good weather chances and with a backup plan too in case weather is crap or if any s***t happens.

Then at the end of the day I can do the majors at any time, as long as I have $ to afford travel and everything.

But I completely understand you; you are speaking with a marathoner who started from NY as first marathon, but now for me even Köln is big enough because I like to see my name high in the ranks even if I'm fairly rubbish ;)

Long Shot wrote:

Why stress out about pace so far away from race day? Train smart for the next 10 weeks and then use a shorter race to determine a reasonable goal.

Having a target time helps a lot.

For example, if my aim was simply to train smart and gain fitness as much as I can there are more chances that I end up in a pub rather than on an athletics track in the evenings.

If I have a sub 2 45 target then I much more motivated, and I asses my marathon pace in a tune up race and training just before the big day.

A (small) amount of stress is part of the fun, at least for me ;)

Bruin1996 wrote:

My wife has set a limit of 2 marathons a year (my main limiting factor) for me and my current goal is to run all of the World Marathon Majors for now. I would like to go sub-2:45 on a World Marathon Major and I realize I may not get there but it’s a goal worth training for. I will probably need to be in low-2:40’s fitness to sub-2:45 at NYC. London and Berlin (and even Tokyo) are faster courses that I can go for sub-2:45 if I miss it at NYC.

You're lucky. My wife set a limit of 1 marathon per year. Two is ideal. You don't need more than that. Work on shorter stuff the rest of the time. The way my last marathon went recovery wise, one marathon a year may be fine for Masters runners.

I'd never be able to do 2 a year. 1 full, 1 to 2 halves, and a 15k is all I can do beyond 5k/10k.

I guess I should be happy I am allowed to do 2 marathons a year. I just ran a local downhill half marathon the past weekend in 1:13:08 (5:35 pace) net -2100 Feet elevation and got 2nd overall. I ran 5:35-5:40 pace for 10 miles and finished with a 16:57 5K. Does this race indicate potential sub- 2:45 fitness at NYC?

Sorry Bruine, I'd say you have read too much letsrun nonsense and over trained, 120 weeks for a 2.54?! Even if you ran 2.45 that's too much surely?

I did 39:45 10k, 1:24:20 HM and 2:59 M. Always better at the longer distances. I gradually progressed from here to 36:40, 1:21:10 and 2:48. And that was 5yrs later. I'm a hobby jogger average 50-60mi/wk. I think 2:49 is way too agressive as well. I think you will do 2:52-2:55 based on 1:23 HM.

Everyone seems to say increasing mileage without injury is key to faster marathon times. So lots of easy running miles. I have 2 friends who are sub-2:40(2:34, 2:39) who also peak at 110-120 miles per week. I can do Speed Intervals and tempo runs at their training paces but can’t quite do the long runs at the pace they can do. Then again, I know someone else who runs 50-60 miles a week and has several sub-2:40 marathons with a 2:35 PR.

Bruin1996 wrote:

Everyone seems to say increasing mileage without injury is key to faster marathon times. So lots of easy running miles. I have 2 friends who are sub-2:40(2:34, 2:39) who also peak at 110-120 miles per week. I can do Speed Intervals and tempo runs at their training paces but can’t quite do the long runs at the pace they can do. Then again, I know someone else who runs 50-60 miles a week and has several sub-2:40 marathons with a 2:35 PR.

Take it to the extreme and you've got Whitlock training, working up to 3 hours a day easy...

The 2:54 was at Boston 2018. It was a survival race, not a normal marathon. Many 2:30 marathoners ran 2:50 or worse.

Just an update.. I ran a 34:52 at a local 10K (with some mild hills) in July and then a 17:05 in August at a high school XC preseason race where they invite community runners to join.. got 11th overall losing to high school studs and a few 20-somethings. I am planning to do a half marathon 4 weeks out from my target marathon (NYC). Currently training 80-100 mpw.. doing a speed interval session and a tempo run (10 continuous miles between GMP 6:17 and GHMP 5:55 Pace) and some long runs(up to 18 miles so far). I plan to get in 3 20+ mile long runs averaging near GMP (including some GMP miles and fast GHMP finish) in these next few weeks and the aforementioned half marathon which I will go for PR (aiming for 1:17:30 or less). Plan to do my final long run 3 weeks out and start tapering for NYC. Any pointers or advice?