Official 2018 London Marathon Live Discussion Thread

kaksi wrote:

Farah just made instagram story with pacemakers splits. First group should go 61:00 and the second group 61:45. Seems pretty close for 2 groups.

No one’s going out in 61:00 unless they plan on not winning.

Bootsontheground wrote:

61:15 is the final decision for men. 67:30 for women.

61:00 - insanity

Hardloper wrote:

weather isn't bad wrote:

Not sure why everyone is saying it will too hot, It's supposed to be 63 degrees at the start and 67 at the finish.

Probably because WRs are only set in the 40's and 50's F

See the post about Kimetto's WR?

How do you feel like, being one of the resident idiots?

And how about the sub 80?

How long are these pacers going to stick around past the half?

A 61 minute half is 4:39 pace. Here are the equivalent half marathon times for maintaining 61 minute half pace for every 5km beyond the half (using

https://runsmartproject.com/calculator/

):

25km in 1:12:17 60:14

30km in 1:26:44 59:28

35km in 1:41:12 58:52

40km in 1:55:39 58:19

Full in 2:02:00 58:09

If they really hit 61, I'd be surprised if any pacers make it to 30km.

What's the fastest 1st half in a marathon? Anyone know it without looking it up?

61:00 is too fast in my book. 61:45 I'd like to see who is in that group.

What if kipchoge is in the 61:45 group? I seriously think it would be a good idea

wejo wrote:

What's the fastest 1st half in a marathon? Anyone know it without looking it up?

61:00 is too fast in my book. 61:45 I'd like to see who is in that group.

Berlin 2016 was 61:11 at the half (Bekele in 2:03:03). Fastest at London was 61:34 in 2013. Kebede came from behind to win that race in 2:06:04 after being down by 49 seconds at 35km in 5th place and 28 seconds at 40km in 2nd place behind Emmanuel Mutai. Kebede ran 61:36/62:28. A lot of carnage that day.

It's crazy that the 2nd group is 61:45. A bunch of guys are going to blow up even "hang back" with the 2nd group.

Kimetto at Berlin - WR, was 61:12

ambitious group wrote:

wejo wrote:

What's the fastest 1st half in a marathon? Anyone know it without looking it up?

61:00 is too fast in my book. 61:45 I'd like to see who is in that group.

Berlin 2016 was 61:11 at the half (Bekele in 2:03:03). Fastest at London was 61:34 in 2013. Kebede came from behind to win that race in 2:06:04 after being down by 49 seconds at 35km in 5th place and 28 seconds at 40km in 2nd place behind Emmanuel Mutai. Kebede ran 61:36/62:28. A lot of carnage that day.

It's crazy that the 2nd group is 61:45. A bunch of guys are going to blow up even "hang back" with the 2nd group.

Check that - Kebede was 61:36/64:28!

61:30 would be the perfect pace through the fist half, and then drop down in the second half.

Considering that the temps are going to be in the low 60s, which isn't that bad, it would be smart to be a little

on the conservative side.

However, if it is going to warm up quite a bit in the second half of the race, then it might be smart to go out faster

than 61:30, and then slightly positive split to stay on WR pace when it gets warmer.

Let's blaze! I'm tired of these slow arse marathon races.

weather isn't bad wrote:

Not sure why everyone is saying it will too hot, It's supposed to be 63 degrees at the start and 67 at the finish. That isn't too bad.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec4a-2/hourly-weather-forecast/328328?hour=57

you probably have never raced a marathon if you really think that. or maybe you're lucky and your body adapts really well to warm temperatures.

anything over 50 degrees is sub-optimal for the half and especially full marathon. 63 isn't so hot that you'd notice going out for a walk, or even a 10 mile run, but everything is magnified over 26 miles.

still, in essence, you are right. 63 is much better than it is at boston some years (which can get into the 80s) and to be honest, shouldn't effect times tremendously. i think the main point is that it's less than perfect marathoning weather.

Current temp predictions:

Start: 66

Finish: 70

Sun

That is NOT good marathoning weather.

Something pretty marvelous is that Kipchoge opened in 14:16 and 28:37 in 2016, and I would hardly say he looked burned by the opening pace as he decimated Biwott in the closing stages of his 2:03:05 performance. I'm not sure how much of this is due to the significant downhill early on in London and how much just the incredible speed reserve and strength of Kipchoge, but this makes me think Kipchoge could open as fast as 14:10 or slightly under, or maybe 28:25 through 10k, without us getting worried he's opened too fast.

Splits that day were 14:16 / 14:21 / 14:41 / 14:54 / 14:30 / 14:35 / 14:54 / 14:43, with halfway reached in 61:24.

So the main places where it looks like time can be picked up are from 10-20k, and 30-40k. In 2016 there was some slowing in the later stages of the race as Kipchoge and Biwott began to race each other and lose sight of the record; I'm not sure we have any idea what to expect this year with the unpredictable Bekele and the many other strong competitors (including Adola).

Anyways, the point i wanted to make that blows my mind is that apparently at London, at least for Kipchoge, banking time in the first 10k is not a bad strategy. I would expect more even splits to prevail, but perhaps modulating the effort a bit is psychologically or even physically rewarding ; on the other hand, maybe the majority of the difference in splits is due to elevation changes on the course.

Kimetto wrote:

Current temp predictions:

Start: 66

Finish: 70

Sun

That is NOT good marathoning weather.

Not good PR or WR marathoning weather, but it is good marathoning weather. If this was a real race and not some lame time trial, we wouldn't be wasting pre race dialog on this. I say bring on the race and the winning times be damned.

There is a big downhill in the first 10K, which is probably why the results you are discussing occured.

Considering the temps, the sun, and the approx 10mi/hr headwind for the last part of the race, I think the wisest racers will back off and run 61:45-62:00 for the half, and the last half will be a tactical battle. Which actually, would be fun to watch.

man of the second group wrote:

What if kipchoge is in the 61:45 group? I seriously think it would be a good idea

The 61:00 is probably because of Kipchoge. Last year at Berlin he requested pacers were faster that Bekele or Kipsang wanted. Probably the same again. The guy really wants the WR.

Ok. I'm turnign this into the official thread. Women's race is at 4:15 am ET. Men's is at 5:00 am ET.

TV info here:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/04/television-streaming-info-start-times-2018-london-marathon/

Results and tracking info:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/04/london-marathon-results-2018-london-marathon-resultstracking-live-leaderboard/

I'll probably be joining you all at the halfway point so let me make my prediction. Have we not learned anything from Boston 2011 or Boston 2018 (or sub-2)? The weather matters A LOT. There is NO CHANCE for a WR due to the heat. Mid 60s isn't warm for non-runners but it's too warm for a marathon WR. Let's hope we see some epic clashes though as Bekele vs Kipchoge and Dibaba vs Keitany are two great clashes.

PS. I'm merging this thread with the pacing thread. THe pace is way too hot given the weather.

Mizuno fanboy wrote:

man of the second group wrote:

What if kipchoge is in the 61:45 group? I seriously think it would be a good idea

The 61:00 is probably because of Kipchoge. Last year at Berlin he requested pacers were faster that Bekele or Kipsang wanted. Probably the same again. The guy really wants the WR.

Keep in mind Bekele's HM against Farah and Geb. He was happy to create a situation where they pressed on full gas while he waited behind. We might see Bekele in that second group if he/Hermans are confident in the manpower there.

Clerk wrote:

Mizuno fanboy wrote:

The 61:00 is probably because of Kipchoge. Last year at Berlin he requested pacers were faster that Bekele or Kipsang wanted. Probably the same again. The guy really wants the WR.

Keep in mind Bekele's HM against Farah and Geb. He was happy to create a situation where they pressed on full gas while he waited behind. We might see Bekele in that second group if he/Hermans are confident in the manpower there.

Bekele did exactly that at London last year. Wanjiru was able to hold him off. This might be the same strategy for Bekele, except maybe the gap to the frontrunners might be tighter.