The Monday Big Discussion: After 31:55 10k Win in Stanford, how do you assess Gwen Jorgensen's Olympic chances?

I don't see her making the marathon team. She's too big (tall) and doesn't look too relaxed when running (high arm carriage).

More importantly, too many quality US women out there. (see list below) I agree with prior posters 5k is probably her best bet

Huddle

Hasay

Cragg

Linden

Thweatt

Hall

Burla

Taylor

Bruce

Rogers

Tuliamuk

Wade

Sisson

Infeld

I think the comments about her having a better shot at the 5000 may be spot on, but it's pretty obvious that she's all in on the Marathon.

I'm curious to see her run a half, hopefully a few months from now. If she can run a half that compares to her 5k time, I think it will be a great sign.

I think her size actually helps her up to the half.... we'll see how it plays out over a full though.

Here's the thing that you guys seem to forget. you've penciled in a few people already. There are a people out there like Laura Thweatt who may have some potential. Or others could have an off day. The only sure thing I see is Hasay. Flanagan won't be on the Line.

The paces are usually modest enough so that it's possible to sneak in. The 2012 was the exception.

Do we know where the 2020 Olympic Marathon Trials will be held? Dates?

Those could factor into it.

Atlanta, Chattanooga, Austin and Orlando are bidding for the Trials. I haven't seen a date yet, but guessing Jan/Feb?

wejo wrote:

On a personal note I loved that they went to In N Out after the race.

http://www.letsrun.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Screenshot-2018-04-02-at-12.16.07.png

The body cannot burn artificial fat like partially hydrogenated oils/monoglycerides found in inNout burger. Thus if she really cares about gold she needs to step her game cause top female world marathoners crack 31. Also annoying all her videos about healthy eating then this cheat. For that I predict no medal

rojo wrote:

Plus she’s 5’10. Can you tell me how many elite 5’10 female marathoners there are? The shorter you are in the marathon, the better.

Citation? I know it "seems to make sense", but the men's and women's world record holders in the marathon are both above average height. Jorgensen is exceptionally tall, but the absence of female elite marathoners at 5'10 or above is completely expected from statistics if height weren't a factor (in the US, less than 2% of adult women are as tall or taller, in Kenya it's only 0.5%).

San Diego hobby jogger wrote:

wejo wrote:

On a personal note I loved that they went to In N Out after the race.

http://www.letsrun.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Screenshot-2018-04-02-at-12.16.07.png

The body cannot burn artificial fat like partially hydrogenated oils/monoglycerides found in inNout burger. Thus if she really cares about gold she needs to step her game cause top female world marathoners crack 31. Also annoying all her videos about healthy eating then this cheat. For that I predict no medal

I try not to judge athletes for their diet too much, but in terms of her health, she probably would have been better off downing a six-pack of Guinness.

Jorgensen is a superior talent to Hasay, Huddle, Flanagan, Cragg, etc. 31:55 was nowhere near a maximal effort. She easily got the win while wearing the Vaporfly 4%'s. Those shoes are amazing on the roads but track spikes would be much faster in a track 10k. This was a hard workout and nothing else.

Jorgensen is the favorite for the 2020 trails IMO assuming she doesn't lose interest before then.

She's said numerous times she won't train for a sport just to make money.

"I talked to my husband, Pat, and I said I could stay in it because I could make better money this year. We both laughed because there’s no reason to stay in this sport for a financial decision. In the sporting world, I think you need to be motivated and willing to put in that work every day. It didn’t seem that my motivation was in the right spot to be able to do that."

https://www.si.com/edge/2018/04/02/gwen-jorgensen-triathlon-track-debut-marathon-goals-nike

You learn something every day.

I'm still open to the possibility she can get a lot better at 10k before we see where her marathon potential is. She's been back from childbirth 5 months. She's never been a full-time runner. She's still breast feeding.

Take away some of those variables and she may get a lot better at shorter distances. The question then remains how does that correspond to the 26.2.

Way I see this list is

Huddle

Hasay

Cragg

Linden

are way better than everyone else who has run a marathon. I take that back. I forgot Thweatt ran a 2:25 in London last year.

Sisson's 10k pr is only 31:25. So Gwen is already in that ballpark. Olympic champion type ballpark? No way. But she's 6 months after having a baby and doing triathlon her adult life.

I don’t know about Desi’s chances, but baby-doping is legit. Ask any top female cyclist. Rohrer ran the same time last year and where is she now? Anyway, tell me what I’m missing here: some giant woman just ran a time that is behind the Olympic gold, silver and bronze times by 2:38, 2:22, and 2:13. I understand it was an Olympic record performance by Ayana, but if a male triathlete came out and ran a 29:30, about 2:25 behind the Olympic record, would you guys really think he was a legit contender? Gwen looks a lot more like Kristin Armstrong (Baby-doper extraordinaire) than Almaz Ayana.

better at marrying than running wrote:

My couple of thoughts as someone who married a woman who is a former elite endurance athlete and who had two children is that my wife and a lot of other women who are serious athletes experience a rather noticeable jump in performance shortly after they stop nursing. Gwen may have another increment of performance improvement when she gets to that point. We have no idea how Gwen will deal with that last 10K of a marathon, and won't until she runs one. That is where the metabolic difference between really good marathoners and good 10K/ 1/2 marathoners shows up. Finally, it is interesting to see that you all have mentally written off Desi Linden as one of our top couple of marathoners. Healthy and fully trained she still may be a 2:23-2:25 performer.

buzzfed wrote:

San Diego hobby jogger wrote:

The body cannot burn artificial fat like partially hydrogenated oils/monoglycerides found in inNout burger. Thus if she really cares about gold she needs to step her game cause top female world marathoners crack 31. Also annoying all her videos about healthy eating then this cheat. For that I predict no medal

I try not to judge athletes for their diet too much, but in terms of her health, she probably would have been better off downing a six-pack of Guinness.

Good riddance people!!! Are you serious? She has a "cheat day" after a hard, long race with her family and you are drawing conclusions from this one fact? You are ignorant.

This is no joke wrote:

I don’t know about Desi’s chances, but baby-doping is legit. Ask any top female cyclist.

Rohrer ran the same time last year and where is she now?

Anyway, tell me what I’m missing here: some giant woman just ran a time that is behind the Olympic gold, silver and bronze times by 2:38, 2:22, and 2:13. I understand it was an Olympic record performance by Ayana, but if a male triathlete came out and ran a 29:30, about 2:25 behind the Olympic record, would you guys really think he was a legit contender?

You're not missing anything, because no one here thinks she's a legit contender for Olympic gold.

Make the team? Yes anyone who beats Schweitzer is a contender for the Olympic team.

Win the gold? I mean...if you're on the US Olympic marathon team then you're good enough to finish top 15-20 unless you DNF or blow up. At that point you're just hoping for one of those crazy marathon days where anything can happen. That's the only way I see her medaling. But you're right - it's a total long shot and we would not expect it.

31.55 is in the same ballpark as 31.25? Like over 2 min behind at the marathon?

'You learn something every day.'

I understand the guessing about her chances (realistically low) in either 5/10 track or marathon in Tokyo.

But who knows?

Would I have guessed a 1-2 US finish in the women's steeple at the 2017 WC? Nope. I thought maybe Coburn gets a bronze or maybe a silver. Not sure I would have predicted Cragg's medal last summer either.

Remember the saying "that's why they run the race." Who knows what Jorgensen can do in ~2 years time. We have a few races that indicate that Gwen is at least national-class in the 5k/10k and we know she has endurance from tri.

I won't put $$ on her winning gold in the Olympic marathon, but the WC or Olympic races are very different than say Berlin or London. She has a decent chance of making the team, and beyond that, who knows?

This performance is not as good in relative terms as Brownlee's track 10k so not quite sure what all the raving is about. It's respectable but no more than that.

Is it a big deal wrote:

This performance is not as good in relative terms as Brownlee's track 10k so not quite sure what all the raving is about. It's respectable but no more than that.

Did he run better than 27:55?, because that is the IAAF equivalent for men.

"Desi will be 36 and I'm pretty certain the number of American women that have run 2:23 or even 2:25 at age 36 is very small. Deena did not and she was of the AR holder. But still, maybe you're right. I would not put money on it though." Well then, you've got to take both Amy & Molly both out for the same reason. So that puts Gwen right in the hunt behind Hasay come 2020.

Oh Please wrote:

Consider 2012 London Olympics. Who predicted Stephen Kiprotitch with a 208 PR at the time was going to win while running down Wilson Kipsang and Abel Kirui AND that the entire Ethiopian team would drop out (sub 205 guys Abshero, Sefir, Feleke)? For whatever reason the Olympic Marathon never goes as planned (except 2016 Rio with Kipchoge winning).

I think Gwen's ability is close enough to stand a chance in a championship style race. She better than most others should be able to handle whatever conditions the day throws at her. But the problem with a championship style race is that it's a war of attrition at the end when people throw down the hammer. She might be able to gut a lot out, but the Kenyan and Ethiopian women are going to have flat-out better 5k/10k times. They'll destroy her in the close with their wheels. She needs a lot to go right to be in consideration.

Having said that, though, who else can really handle dropping the hammer at the end of a race? I don't think Hasay or Cragg are known for that. Huddle and Flanagan have had flashes of doing it and you see where they have more wins to their name. These wins from Gwen are encouraging. She has some competitive spirit and could be with the pack, so it's a better chance than a lot of other people out there. You can't even be sure that the Kenyan/Ethiopian favorites will qualify. Ethiopia for sure has made the recent mistake of sending a lot of non-veterans to big races after a flash in the pan performance. Gwen has a good shot at qualifying and a good shot of being with the lead pack until the hammer comes.