If you were Galen Rupp, what would your next marathon be?

runn wrote:This.

He is a household name everywhere but the USA.

LOL. Not sure if serious.

All He Does Is Win wrote:

runn wrote:This.

He is a household name everywhere but the USA.

LOL. Not sure if serious.

from Argentina to Azerbejian (sic?) to Zaire to Zimbabwe: muh'fuh'ing right!!

RUPP! RUPP!

He has to run London.

That Salazar lab is all about running fast times. Gotta put a fast time on the books.

Who knows what his goals are? If he truly wants a fast time then he has to run London and/or Berlin at some point. However his coach won NYC and Boston and I would think he would also like to win these two USA classics, especially Boston.

I think London is the next best choice for him.

Chicago 2018

Which one writes the biggest check?

From a performance standpoint purely I think the one with the slowest course and worst weather.

Alas,I care about winning and not just running fast times.

Why would Rupp do NYC? It seems the competition there is getting weaker. Chicago is definitely stronger than NYC this year.

If he is capable of a 2:05, like some people claim, then how does he get there. I assume in most fast races, the pacers aren't aiming for 2:05. So he either runs with the lead group and tries to hold on in the final miles or he runs his own race in no man's land, negating the benefit of having pacers. I'd say he should break the AR in the half and then try for a win in NY.

broken arrow wrote:

Who knows what his goals are? If he truly wants a fast time then he has to run London and/or Berlin at some point. However his coach won NYC and Boston and I would think he would also like to win these two USA classics, especially Boston.

To that end, let's consider some possibilities over the next few years (based on some assumptions):

- 2018: Boston, NYC to cement his visibility within the US (age 31, 32 at each race). Could fathomably go to London over Boston

- 2019: Tokyo, Worlds (maybe no Boston or London because they're a lot closer to worlds)

- 2020: US trials, Olympics (age 33-34, near his peak)

- 2021: London or Boston, NYC (age 34-35) - if he takes 1st or 2nd in the Olympics, I could see him trying to get his Boston win afterward

- 2022: Boston, NYC (age 35-36)

- 2023: Boston, Chicago (age 36-37) - back to Chicago as his prime marathon years pass

- 2024: US trials, last Olympics at age 38

- 2025: retire

I think his choices would depend upon a few (obvious) factors:

1. Favoring US marathons over those abroad for his image

2. Fast times secondary, but I can see him wanting 1-2 before he hangs them up

In a different post, I stated that Rupp has three benchmarks left: 1) Oly-world Gold 2) U.S. Marathon Record 3) True Elite Scalps

With that in mind, if I were Rupp, I would run

2018 London- Run strict even splits with something like a 62:45 first half. DO NOT chase lead pack if they bust out at 61 flat. If everything goes right, finish at 2:05:45 with the official US marathon Record.

2018 NYC- If completely healthy and eager, run NYC for the win. If least bit injured or burnt out scrap season and start training cycle over. A podium or better yet the win at NYC leaves no doubt as to his road running chops.

2019- No marathons. It'd be awesome if he made US xc team and placed respectfully at world xc just to squash the rupp-certified blather. Thats not going to happen but 2019 should basically be a red shirt year for Rupp with random 10ks, half marathons, etc. Absolutely no reason to go to Qatar for world's in any event.

2020 OLY Trials- only real concern is making it to starting line healthy-

2020 Tokyo- This is the race that matters. Win it and he is an American hero. Anything less and he's just a fast white guy.

2021 Eugene World Champs Marathon- Safety race for world gold and fitting "farewell" race.

After that Rupp can pick and choose races as he pleases as the old lion of US running.

derp wrote:

If he is capable of a 2:05, like some people claim, then how does he get there. I assume in most fast races, the pacers aren't aiming for 2:05. So he either runs with the lead group and tries to hold on in the final miles or he runs his own race in no man's land, negating the benefit of having pacers. I'd say he should break the AR in the half and then try for a win in NY.

I believe London/Berlin have a few different pace groups. Usually the top going world record pace, then like a 2:05/2:06 group, and then maybe even one more slower group. If Rupp just hung with the 2:05/2:06 group he could likely hold on for a low 2:06 and pick off people dying from the lead group. Seems like the last few years a low 2:06 gets you 3rd in London/Berlin.

luv2run wrote:

Which one writes the biggest check?

From a performance standpoint purely I think the one with the slowest course and worst weather.

Alas,I care about winning and not just running fast times.

The best way to win is don't get in races with fast people.

These last two comments are awesome.

Rupp NEEDS to accomplish a few things to be considered among the greats. First, is to run fast, at least get the AR. This shouldn't be too tough given the number of paced flat races worldwide, but how will he fit one in, and can he hang onto 2:05 pace?

Second, can he realistically aim at an Oly or World marathon gold, when he's a 2:09 guy?

How long can he find marathon success running times that were competitive in the 70s?

If I were Rupp I'd run Boston or NY. He can win either and the haters will continue to hate.

The times can be damned. He keeps on winning and taking home medals over guys that are "faster"

Then again I'm not in the "I don't like Rupp because he is white" or the butthurt "Rupp has had a better career than me" crowds.

As for Fancy Bears aren't they a Russian group that blamed almost everyone after their country got banned for cheating? Interesting

Beautiful Day wrote:

How long can he find marathon success running times that were competitive in the 70s?

If you follow the sport at all, you'll find that 2:09 has almost always been a competitive time at Boston/NYC/Olympics.

If Rupp wants to cement his reputation, he needs to run a fast course against deep competition.

So the answer is London in 2018. It's a fast course and has the deepest competition anywhere. Ryan Hall ran 2:06:17 in London for 5th place. If Rupp ran faster than Hall in London, it would silence the skeptics who think Rupp is dodging top competition.

Rupp has already run Boston and Boston doesn't have the depth of London and is a fluky non-record eligible course. The only thing going for Boston would be a bigger payday for Rupp than London, but as a running fan, I don't care about that. The field in Tokyo is softer than London and not as fast. I would say Dubai, but it's purely a time trial and he would get smoked by a no-name Ethiopian 18-year old and wouldn't get paid much, so there would be no point in that.

Then in the fall of 2018, run Berlin for the time or New York for the competition/tradition/payday.

I suspect... wrote:

...he'll get the best financial offer from London.

I don't think this is true. He's obviously more marketable in the US.

snow blow wrote:

Beautiful Day wrote:

How long can he find marathon success running times that were competitive in the 70s?

If you follow the sport at all, you'll find that 2:09 has almost always been a competitive time at Boston/NYC/Olympics.

Yeah, I was only standing at the finish line when Rupp's coach ran a 2:08!