Centro or Murphy?

Yes, thank you. I agree with that. He chased the standard, didn't get it, and thus his decision was made. As to his upside versus Centro in the 1500...we'll have to wait and see I guess. It's hard to say that his upside isn't necessarily greater in the long run. Just because Centro WAS the olympic champ in that event doesn't automatically disqualify Clayton from having a greater upside. Right now, the scale tips in Centro's favor for sure but I wouldn't be shocked to see Clayton run sub-3:30 or challenge for gold in that event down the road. I will admit to being a somewhat biased observer though. Either way, thank goodness both of them are running great and are providing success to US middle distance running on the international stage!

Who has the most upside? Great question. Have we seen the full extent of Centro's upside? Perhaps not, hard to say. Have we seen all that Murphy can do yet? More than likely not since it's early in his pro career. Last year, he and Coach LaBadie made the decision to go at it in the 800. Yes, a decision made easier by him not having the A standard in the 1500 prior to the trials, but a great decision given the sheer volume of races in the 3 collegiate seasons.

While accolades certainly favor Centro with Olympic Gold, it looks to me as though Murphy has the potential to go far below 3:30 in the 1500 based on his 800. The conversation about what he would need to show at 3k is interesting and a great case can be made about the endurance/aerobic power aspects of Murphy's training as it relates to performance in the 1500. I think if you look at Coe's marks you see a 7:56 in 1986 which is the same year he ran 3:29. I'm not sure if he went sub 8 prior to that, but that would be a bit past his prime years. It's certainly reasonable to presume that anyone who had run 3:47 in the mile back in '81 would have easily gone sub 8 for 3k. Steve Ovett, on the other hand raced well at an early age at everything from 400 to the half marathon. Although, Ovett was markedly slower in the 800 than Coe, he was very close to Seb in the 1500/Mile most likely due to better aerobic power.

What I like best about Centro and Murphy are their tactical acumen. They are great racers and exude the confidence one needs to get the most out of their talent on the big stage. The present is bright for American middle distance running. Time to sit back and enjoy the show.

1500m SHOWDOWN wrote:

Murphy has already blown Centro's doors off at the 1000m but if he trains for 1500m could he do the same there?

Are you talking about the race where Murphy won in 2:20.12 and Centro was second in 2:20.20?

Is that your definition of blowing the doors off someone?

But to answer your question, I think Murphy has the potential to break the 1500m American Record and exceed any Centro PR some day.

But a lot of runners had potential that went unfulfilled.

I could see Murphy winning the 2020 Olympics in the 1500.

Imagine the US having back to back Olympic 1500m Golds.

Something Kenya or Morocco has never had.

skimmme wrote:

Overseas wrote:

The Olympic gold medalist or the guy who couldn't hit the A standard? Hmm... I'll think on it and get back to you.

what? Murphy doesn't even train for the 1500m, if he did you could bet your a$$ he'd blow off Centro's doors in a 3:50 jogfest. don't be disingenuous, we've never seen an american runner with Murphy's toolbox

That 3:50 jogfest had was filled with athletes who are legit world class 800m runners. In fact, a couple them have a faster 800m PR than Murphy; in addition, 3 athletes in that race on the top-10 list for the fastest 1500m times in history. Why would anyone assume an NCAA class 1500m runner would beat the Olympic champ in any type of 1500m race. Btw, Centro closed in his 1500m race faster than Murphy did in his 800m race...winning a tactical race is no less difficult that winning a fast one.

1500m SHOWDOWN wrote:

Who has the most upside at the 1500m? When all is said and done, in terms of fastest time, in terms of accolades. Who would win right now in a 1500m face-off? In an all-out effort and in a tactical effort. Murphy has already blown Centro's doors off at the 1000m but if he trains for 1500m could he do the same there? Question is, will Murphy move to 1500m anytime soon? With his success at the 800m why would he? What does he ultimately want more?

This year is likely the last one in which Centro may post a faster time than Murphy. Centro might break 3:30, not sure if Murphy is there yet. However by next year Centro will be dead meat in a 1500 race against Murphy no matter the pace.

Some people point out that Murphy didn't hit the Oly standard last season. But he didn't run a bunch of rabbited races trying to hit the mark either. He decided not to waste his time trying to hit the standard after the Oly Trials, and just concentrated on the 800, running a time that Centro, Webb, Steve Scott and other great US 1500 men could never have run even if they had focused on that distance for their entire careers.

In the end Centro has Oly gold. A great feat. But Murphy is looking more and more like an extremely rare talent, as in low 1:42s (I think he will run in the 1:41s before it's all over) and faster than 3:28 in the 1500. Centro will never break 3:28 and it's very possible he'll never break 3:30 although I think he will run 3:29+ this summer.

Murphy is more talented. He may never win Oly or WC gold (but it's possible) but he will run faster than Centro ever will. Guaranteed.

The big J wrote:

Well, in the 1500, I would think Jenkins would blow the doors off of both. He destroyed Centro in the Fifth Ave Mile. He can beat him and Murphy anywhere, anytime.

Nah. Centro screwed up in that race and Murphy was burned out after a long season and that ridiculous battle mid-race to ensure he nabbed the bonus $$$ going to the "leader" at the half mile point. Look at what a true novice Murphy is at the 1500/mile, it showed indoors. But he's learning. By next season Centro should be running the 5k as his main event because Murphy is showing signs of being something along the lines of Coe, Ovett, Cram. He has elite speed and his strength is increasing rapidly. He was basically under-trained until he was 19 years old. Remarkable improvement.

TrackCoach wrote:

skimmme wrote:

what? Murphy doesn't even train for the 1500m, if he did you could bet your a$$ he'd blow off Centro's doors in a 3:50 jogfest. don't be disingenuous, we've never seen an american runner with Murphy's toolbox

That 3:50 jogfest had was filled with athletes who are legit world class 800m runners. In fact, a couple them have a faster 800m PR than Murphy; in addition, 3 athletes in that race on the top-10 list for the fastest 1500m times in history. Why would anyone assume an NCAA class 1500m runner would beat the Olympic champ in any type of 1500m race. Btw, Centro closed in his 1500m race faster than Murphy did in his 800m race...winning a tactical race is no less difficult that winning a fast one.

Only one of the runners in the race had a faster 800 PR than Murphy. One. Makh. Kiprop has never broken 1:43 despite running in three races where other athletes did.

Centro won because he was in lane 1 the whole way. Makh was all over the place and Willis actually ran the straight faster than either of them.

Murphy is going to run much faster over 1500 than Centro. Centro will move up while not admitting that his move will be due to Murphy's improvement. But Centro will be running the 5k as his race by 2019, even if he still claims to be a 1500 guy.

Great thread !

Both Olympic medalists.

Centro ran a heck of a race for that gold.

If Centro does not break 3:30 in the next two years, I think Murphy will overshadow him in the 1500 time wise only.

Both guys are great but the Centro gold might be the kick start moment for the US to really return in the 1500/mile.

Murphy might be fast enough to win an olympic 800 final, wow a scary thought.

Rick Barry wrote:

IMO Murphy has no reason to move up. He is an incredible runner with incredible range. That said, I think he is a lot more likely to go 1:41.x for 800 than 3:29.x for 1500.

The 1500 will not go out over 2 minutes again in WC or Olympics for at least another 4 years after what happened in Rio. Murphy should keep running 1500s, 3000s and the occasional cross race to keep up his base. However, adding the 1500 during championship season will offer little upside and complicate his best event, the 800.

If Murphy can shave another second off his 800 and maintain his tactical savvy he will be a real threat to Rudisha and Makhdaddy as they age out.

"after what happened in Rio?" You sound like the talking heads around here who claim after every sit-and-kick Mo Farah win that they won't fall for _that_ again...

It's really exciting to watch Murphy develop into a great 800m runner, but I can't help think that there is a lot of US bias on here regards his potential at 1500m.

From a more detached p.o.v, I see Centro as a great out and out miler. He ran a great tactical race to win in Rio, but I think 3:30 is about his max in terms of time.

Murphy is 22 and I see him as an 800 guy who could possibly double up over 1500m. His pb at present is what? 3:36? That's a good time, but how so many can extrapolate that to sub 3:30 like it's a given, based on being a 1:42 high 800 guy is a bit perplexing.

Everyone thought Cruz was going to be this great miler after seeing him win the Olympic 800 and run 1:41, but he just didn't have it over the longer distance. He never broke 3:33 or 3:51. Yes, he could run and win top collegiate races in 3:35 - 3:40 races, relying on his 800 ability, but he was left wanting once the pace went really fast.

I'm not saying Murphy doesn't have the potential of being at least a top tier miler of the future, but maybe he needs to win a few races in Europe or the Diamond League in sub 3:33, before we start talking about 3:28s and 3:29s.

Noble Kane wrote:

Murphy is 22 and I see him as an 800 guy who could possibly double up over 1500m. His pb at present is what? 3:36? That's a good time, but how so many can extrapolate that to sub 3:30 like it's a given, based on being a 1:42 high 800 guy is a bit perplexing.

When Wheating was 22 his 1500 PR was 3:38. He had a 1:45 flat 800 PR, and the 800 was his main event at the time (he was on the Olympic team at 800m)

The following year he ran 3:30.

We may also want to point out that Centro's best 1500 time last year was 3:34.

We don't know how fast Murphy could have run a 1500 last year in the right race.

But we're pretty sure he was a lot better than 3:36 without changing anything - just getting in the right race.

Gold medal, dip shit! How much more of an upside do you want?

CoachO wrote:

I wouldn't be shocked to see Clayton run sub-3:30 or challenge for gold in that event down the road.

2 Americans ever have run sub 3:30. Lagat and Maree. Centro is the 3rd fastest.

I would be shocked to see Murphy break 3:30.

The above from Noble Kane is the most balanced and level-headed appraisal so far, and by far.

Middle94 wrote:

Tyuhgfrtuubvf wrote:

Murphy ran like 8:15 in the 3K when he gave that a shot indoors. Centro can run 7:40. He's significantly stronger and is the best tactical middle distance runner in the world. Murphy's not outkicking Centro in a 1500 unless it's a 4:00+ race.

I think the 3k says it all really. Has there ever been a true miler that does so poorly in a fast 3k? He needs a lot more strength.

Only for strength based 15ers. Plus, how many 3ks has Murphy even raced?? (Six times total including HS, btw)

1500 performance is closer to 800 than 3k. (1.75 laps and then an 800 race, most often tactically)

Strength will come for Murphy, he has never even gotten close to the training miles or regimen that Centro has had practically his whole life. If Murphy wants to get serious about 1500, his strength potential is there, and his speed is superior to most all. You can train strength way more than speed.

Potential, based on college stats:

Murphy, Collegiate 2014-16: 1:45.59, 3:36.38, 8:19.09

Centro, Collegiate 2009-11: 1:50.91, 3:38.30, 7:55.90

Murphy's lack of strength is trainable.

Centro's not as fast, ever, as Murphy.

I predict that Centro will win more OG gold medals in the 1500 than Murphy

Right now, I'd probably say Centro but wouldn't be shocked to see Murphy win. In the long run, I think Murphy's got the potential but the key word is POTENTIAL. If Murphy develops the strength and experience, particularly experience, to run the 1500m, I see him with potential to break 3:30. Right now, probably no. But that 1:42 is something to marvel at, especially for someone who wanted to run the 1500m standard.

Right now, Centro 90% win.

In the long run, Murphy 80% win.

Coaches News Network wrote:

Who has the most upside? Great question. Have we seen the full extent of Centro's upside? Perhaps not, hard to say. Have we seen all that Murphy can do yet? More than likely not since it's early in his pro career. Last year, he and Coach LaBadie made the decision to go at it in the 800. Yes, a decision made easier by him not having the A standard in the 1500 prior to the trials, but a great decision given the sheer volume of races in the 3 collegiate seasons.

While accolades certainly favor Centro with Olympic Gold, it looks to me as though Murphy has the potential to go far below 3:30 in the 1500 based on his 800. .

Centrowitz has been a pro for like 5 years. Odds are we have pretty much scene what is is (i.e. on the short list of greatest american milers every). Clayton is a 22 year old who hasn't had full year as a pro. He has a lot more "upside" but that doesn't mean he is going to touch Centro's 1500m career. MIght turn out that the 800m is his best event and he had is best showing of his career. Or he could turn into a consistant medalist over the next 8 years. Remember when Wheating was going to be the next great miler off his sub 3:31 out of college?

Centro... murphy is a prick