Hypothetical: Laura Muir 100:1 odds to win the 1500m in London, $1000 minimum bet. Would you take it?

Of course I'd take the bet. This is Letsrun, $1000 is chump change here.

LOL. It only seems stupid because you have rose colored glass on.

She being brave and beating runners in one offs doesn't necessarily amount to anything. 2016 should have indicated that.

The bottom line is she hasnt yet beaten any of her main competitors WHEN IT COUNTS. ie a world championship/Olympic final.

It's easy to be brave when you race against lesser runners, but let's see how tough she is when THE most important medals of the season are on the line.

Until then, just another wolf ticket

Well talking about handling pressure, how did Faith do in the Diamond League Final last year.

Big pressure race. It would be her biggest pay day of the year!

Did she rise to the ocassion...or crumble under the pressure being exerted by a certain Laura Muir.

Well, I'm afraid she fell apart.

Roll on London.

Union Jackass wrote:

Slow Bro wrote:

Her competitors could get busted in the meantime, or fall during the race, or be sick, etc...

Keep in mind that the same things can happen to her. In any event, I'd be more willing to put my money on her leaving London with NO medals yet

having run a 3:54 in some diamond league event.

Of course they can happen to her! The point is that if she has a more than 1% chance of winning, this bet is +EV.

Still being so far out and not knowing exactly who's in the race (Dibaba being the huge question mark), it's tough to assign a very precise win % for Muir, but I am positive it's greater than 1%, and by a significant margin.

I'd say she's probably got a 10-20% chance of winning at least, which makes this a terrific bet. Again, if you have the bankroll to stomach a 1k loss somewhere between 80-90% of the time.

portsea57 wrote:

Union Jackass wrote:

LOL. It only seems stupid because you have rose colored glass on.

She being brave and beating runners in one offs doesn't necessarily amount to anything. 2016 should have indicated that.

The bottom line is she hasnt yet beaten any of her main competitors WHEN IT COUNTS. ie a world championship/Olympic final.

It's easy to be brave when you race against lesser runners, but let's see how tough she is when THE most important medals of the season are on the line.

Until then, just another wolf ticket

Well talking about handling pressure, how did Faith do in the Diamond League Final last year.

Big pressure race. It would be her biggest pay day of the year!

Did she rise to the ocassion...or crumble under the pressure being exerted by a certain Laura Muir.

Well, I'm afraid she fell apart.

Roll on London.

Rio Olympics > one off race.

Being an Olympic champion trumps being a Diamond League champion any day.

Muir can win all the circuit races she wants, but she knows major championship hardware is the business, hardware btw that's eluded her thus far. Kipyegon can rest on her laurels and find solace in the fact that she's not a "one off champion", but an Olympic champion, world championsip silver medalist and a World Junior and World Youth Champion. (All while being younger than Muir btw)

Major championship medals Kipyegon: 2 Muir: zilch

Portsea57: But she's brave and won a one off contest, lmao!!!!

All hail UK distance's wolf ticket!

Union jackass said:

"Kipyegon can rest on her laurels and find solace in the fact that she's not a "one off champion", but an Olympic champion, world championsip silver medalist and a World Junior and World Youth Champion"

But the point is she crumbled ( under pressure from Laura ) on the biggest pay day of - probably - her life.

And, I would bet she would have swapped her Olympic Gold for that Diamond League cheque.

And, if Laura shapes up in London - like I think she will - Faith will certainly have to keep resting on her laurels because I wouldn't bet on any new ones coming her way.

Yawn. Olympic gold prize money plus bonuses from her sponsor plus the money she received from her second place in your favorite diamond league race amounts to considerably more than your one off champion made last year. Get back to me when Muir actually wins a championship worth mentioningUntil then, all you have is rhetoric.

portsea57 wrote:

Union jackass said:

"Kipyegon can rest on her laurels and find solace in the fact that she's not a "one off champion", but an Olympic champion, world championsip silver medalist and a World Junior and World Youth Champion"

But the point is she crumbled ( under pressure from Laura ) on the biggest pay day of - probably - her life.

And, I would bet she would have swapped her Olympic Gold for that Diamond League cheque.

And, if Laura shapes up in London - like I think she will - Faith will certainly have to keep resting on her laurels because I wouldn't bet on any new ones coming her way.

Slow Bro wrote:

Union Jackass wrote:

Keep in mind that the same things can happen to her. In any event, I'd be more willing to put my money on her leaving London with NO medals yet

having run a 3:54 in some diamond league event.

Still being so far out and not knowing exactly who's in the race.....

......means it makes no sense to assign any sort of odds to her chances of winning. At least wait until the outdoor season is in full swing.

Well, my assertions come from facts.

1) Laura has a faster 1500m time than Faith.

2) Laura beat Faith in Paris which clearly unnerved Faith.

3) Laura's pressure - in Zurich - caused Faith to crumble.

4) Laura's indoor form is a clear indicator that she will be a far stronger athlete this summer.

And you say this women can't be considered a strong medal contender.

Crazy.

1)Not run in a major championship but in a one off

2)Unnerved is arguable unless you can produce a quote or sound bite of Faith claiming such. But again, a one off setting

3) Speculation. What you mean is Faith lost to Muir in a... ehem.. one off.

4) Clear to you, but you're biased. Speculation isn't fact

The most important fact is that Kipyegon defeated Muir et al when it mattered the most: at the Olympics, one the most anticipated sporting events ever, watched by track fans and non track fans alike.

Important fact #2: Muir CHOKED when the whole world was watching and couldn't summon that 3:55 speed when she should have.

Meanwhile, Faith is a proven champion on Youth, Junior and Senior levels....

Bravery, one off titles and fast times amount to nothing without major medals. End. Of. Story.

The outdoor season should be fun.

Union Jackass wrote:

1)Not run in a major championship but in a one off

2)Unnerved is arguable unless you can produce a quote or sound bite of Faith claiming such. But again, a one off setting

3) Speculation. What you mean is Faith lost to Muir in a... ehem.. one off.

4) Clear to you, but you're biased. Speculation isn't fact

The most important fact is that Kipyegon defeated Muir et al when it mattered the most: at the Olympics, one the most anticipated sporting events ever, watched by track fans and non track fans alike.

Important fact #2: Muir CHOKED when the whole world was watching and couldn't summon that 3:55 speed when she should have.

Meanwhile, Faith is a proven champion on Youth, Junior and Senior levels....

Bravery, one off titles and fast times amount to nothing without major medals. End. Of. Story.

The outdoor season should be fun.

Choked! You fool!

And, only a fool would say she choked.

She clearly didn't have the basic speed to stick with Faith and Genzebe.

Nothing to do with choking,

Indeed, choking would have been backing off from Genzebe's sudden burst of the pace.

Laura went for it but those games came a year too soon.

But this coming summer...

I BELIEVE MUIR HAS A QUICKER 1000M TIME THAN DIBABA THIS YEAR.

....thi

(((((((CHHHOKED)))))))

A fool is one who talks up a runner with virtually nothing of significance to show for.

Like I mentioned earlier, she had to have been in sub 2:00 shape to be able to run 3:55, so miss me with that nonsense. This was certainly not Muir's first go at a major championship, so there's absolutely no excuse other than (((((((SHE CHOKED))))))

She was the faster CHOKER of 2016 and until I see otherwise, she'll likely be the fastest CHOKER in 2017.

"...those games came a year too soon" and I'm the fool, lmao!!!

Union Jackass wrote:

portsea57 wrote:

But this coming summer...

....thi

(((((((CHHHOKED)))))))

A fool is one who talks up a runner with virtually nothing of significance to show for.

Like I mentioned earlier, she had to have been in sub 2:00 shape to be able to run 3:55, so miss me with that nonsense. This was certainly not Muir's first go at a major championship, so there's absolutely no excuse other than (((((((SHE CHOKED))))))

She was the faster CHOKER of 2016 and until I see otherwise, she'll likely be the fastest CHOKER in 2017.

"...those games came a year too soon" and I'm the fool, lmao!!!

Are you crazy.

Laura is probably the fastest legit 1500m ever!

Is that "nothing of significance!"

Last year, she beat the Olympic Champ twice, and once in a race where Faith really wanted to win.

To say that she choked in Rio is probably the daftest thing that you will ever say ( well, probably not).

And, as to Laura's 800m speed. Well, last summer, she did run, what is reported as an all out attempt to run a fast 800m - i.e. sub- 2min - but still couldn't manage it.

Rose coloured glasses? The glasses that you are wearing must be totally black because you can't still what the vast majority of track fans can plainly see that Laura Muir is clearly one of the main contenders for an Olympic !500m medal.

Indeed, based on form/ times, and win/loss record against Faith, to call Laura joint favourite for the gold medal would seem like a very reasonable assertion.

Poof wrote:

Middle94 wrote:

Dibaba is likely not running the 1500 and Muir has beaten kipyegon and hold a faster PB.

Dibaba will be running the 1500 as always and she is undefeated against Muir. Muir has only beaten Kipyegon once, when Kipyegon was not 100% at the end of last season. Kipyegon destroyed her in the Olympics and in every other race they've had.

Why are you saying this with such confidence?

I'm just reporting what Dibaba has actually said. She said she wants to do the 5k/10k double. If you have some inside information then let us know.

Minimum bet of $1000? Where?

Having some knowledge in this area the odds would follow like this:

Dibaba 3/1, Muir 4/1, Kipyegon 5/1, Simpson 8/1, Hassan 12/1, Rowberry 12/1, Martinez 15/1 etc

No bookie would offer 100/1 for Muir at the moment.

I like her talent and attitude, but we should note that Sifan Hassan did not compete at the European championships.

Hassan, GDibaba and Kipyegon have equal to or better than chance to win the 1500 at World's. And Rowbury beat her at the Diamond League final in Zurich.

She has no better than one chance in three of taking gold (odds 1:2 against). But I would say she has a good chance to podium (odds 3:1 in favor).

In the 5k she is a longshot for gold against Ayana and Dibaba, but has a reasonable chance at the podium (even odds).

Also, she has just finished a blistering and wearing winter program, and she might not be sharp for the summer season of a qualifier and the championship rounds. Rowbury, Hassan and Simpson kept an easy schedule this winter precisely for that reason.

Bravery means jack sh*t, just ask our own Steve Prefontaine.

Jenny Simpson > Laura Muir despite your idiotic assertion in your post.

Muir's greatest weakness is her ambition. It caused her to race foolishly in Rio and finish 7th when she should have come home with a medal. In London, racing at home, the temptation to make an early aggressive move would probably be too much for her to resist -- again causing her to finish lower than she should. You can make moves like that only if you are clearly superior to the rest of the field or on dope or again, if your ambition is clouding your ability to race rationally.