2016 Men's Marathon Rankings controversy - Where should Galen Rupp be ranked?

I like your post and since I've heard a rumour that TFN is going to ranking Centro very low, and I'll be ripping that decision, I want to explain why I think it's a bit different for the marathon. The Olympics aren't the end all and be all event in the marathon like it is in the 1500. Yes it's by far the biggest race of the year. But there aren't scores of people in the 1500 who are capable of winning the event that are prevented from running it like there are in the Olympic marathon. On the track, the fact that the 5th best Kenyan doesn't make it to Rio isn't all that significant. Yes, maybe they would have medalled but he's not likely a potential winner. The marathon is much more random than that. Every year, there are 6-10 big marathons and generally a runner is ranked on how they do in two of those races.

In my mind, winning the London marathon is way more difficult than the Olympics. Maybe I'm wrong, butI think the average Kenyan would rather win that than get third in the Olympics unless they get some lifelong pension from the military/govt etc.

We never said Rupp shouldn't be ranked. We just thought if you've got one marathon of note on the year and it's a 2:10 in the heat of the Olympics, it's hard to say your #4.

In 2012, Abel Kirui won the silver (rupp won bronze) and was 5th in London in 2:07 and he was #4 for TFN.

You say rupp beat several 2:04 guys and MANY 2:05 guys. That's not true. He beat 5 guys with a pb of 2:03-2:04 and zero 2:05 guys.

Here are the 204 guys (snd 203) Rupp beat in London.

Eliud Kipchoge — Kenya, 31 years old, 2:03:05 pb (2016 London), 59:25 half

Stanley Biwott, Kenya, 30 years old, 2:03:51 pb (2016 London), 58:56 half

Lemi Berhanu, Ethiopia, 21 years old, 2:04:33 pb (2016 Dubai), 61:37 half

Tesfaye Abera, Ethiopia, 24 years old, 2:04:24 pb (2016 Dubai),

Feyisa Lilesa, Ethiopia, 26 years old, 2:04:52 pb

That's a nice list.

But in terms of the 2:05 guys that he beat, which you say there are MANY, there in fact were zero 2:05 guys in the field. Everyone else in the race had a pb in the 2:06s or higher.

We think Rupp should be ranked. We put him at #6. 4 is too high.

True Data wrote:

Funny.

Racing counts.

Medals are forever.

The running world is full of those who choke on the big stage.

Oh, Pre is one of them.

Rupp deserves his ranking.

You're wrong and mean; Pre is the best because he was cool and looked cool in posters. You don't know anything about running.

rojo wrote:

Here are the 204 guys (snd 203) Rupp beat in London.

Eliud Kipchoge — Kenya, 31 years old, 2:03:05 pb (2016 London), 59:25 half

Stanley Biwott, Kenya, 30 years old, 2:03:51 pb (2016 London), 58:56 half

Lemi Berhanu, Ethiopia, 21 years old, 2:04:33 pb (2016 Dubai), 61:37 half

Tesfaye Abera, Ethiopia, 24 years old, 2:04:24 pb (2016 Dubai),

Feyisa Lilesa, Ethiopia, 26 years old, 2:04:52 pb

That's a nice list.

.

Thanks for providing PROOF that Rupp has a very GOOD chance of running 2:04 it a time trial flat race like London or Dubai.

rojo wrote:

Here are the 204 guys (snd 203) Rupp beat in London.

Eliud Kipchoge — Kenya, 31 years old, 2:03:05 pb (2016 London), 59:25 half

Stanley Biwott, Kenya, 30 years old, 2:03:51 pb (2016 London), 58:56 half

Lemi Berhanu, Ethiopia, 21 years old, 2:04:33 pb (2016 Dubai), 61:37 half

Tesfaye Abera, Ethiopia, 24 years old, 2:04:24 pb (2016 Dubai),

Feyisa Lilesa, Ethiopia, 26 years old, 2:04:52 pb

Umm, that's one h3ll of a typo. I think you meant to say, "Here's a list of the 2:04 & 2:03 guys that Rupp faced in Rio, and he beat the middle 3 of them."

rojo wrote:

In my mind, winning the London marathon is way more difficult than the Olympics. Maybe I'm wrong, butI think the average Kenyan would rather win that than get third in the Olympics unless they get some lifelong pension from the military/govt etc.

The guy who wins London has already proven himself. These days, nobody just goes out there and takes London on a debut or with only a 2:08 - 2:12 pb. So the guy who wins London already has money, and he's just after notoriety & scalps at that point. With respect to notoriety, the Olympics is the same way. Guys chasing a win in the Olympics are chasing notoriety. Only the best guys can win at London, and only the best guys can win at the Olympics in the marathon. They're equal. Rupp was 3rd against them. Only Bekele & Kipsang were absent. Rupp should be ranked 5th.

A bronze medal is nothing to scoff at, especially in your second career marathon. But this isn't about breakthrough performance of the year or best future prospect, but best runner in 2016. Rupp beat Ward by 85 seconds in Rio. It was a very well executed race in poor conditions, but it wasn't near the top performance of the year. And since it was Rupp's only notable performance in an international race, it is hard to see him ranked 4th or even 6th on this list. He might very well win Boston in 2017 and run a fast race in Chicago. But that wouldn't vindicate a high 2016 ranking. It would justify a high 2017 ranking.

Rupp falls in sixth for sure. You need to push Ghirmay Gebreslassie ahead of him for his win at NYC and finishing 4th at London. Rupp didn't run London, or another fall marathon. Instead he won the trials over a relatively weak field. To be considered a great marathoner of 2016, you need to do more than run one good marathon. Gebreslassie won a major and that definitely counts for more than Rupp's trials win. Before anyone calls that NYC field weak, consider that Gebreslassie ran 2:07 and won by over a minute. The performance ranks 5th of all time and he did not have the superb conditions of 2011 to pull him through a faster performance. One has to wonder if he could've run a minute quicker had he been given better pacing than second tier American marathoners and instead had the in form mutai's of 2011. The fact that he destroyed Lucas Rotich by a minute and Abdi by a wholesome four minutes should be a testament to the performance. Then he bounced back to race Rupp not long after and didn't lose to him by much. That's a year!

With Wilson Kipsang, the performances become more subjective. How does Rupp's third at Rio count against a 2:03:13 in Berlin? Well for one thing, you have to remember that Kipsang was vicious in his Berlin run. Remember the attacks he laid down against Bekele? at 29km and again at 35km he attacked and was able to drop Bekele! If not for running such an aggressive early race, perhaps we would be calling Kipsang the Bekele slayer! Then consider London, Kipsang finished 5th there is a little slower race but remember that they went through the half in 61! And then when Kipchoge dropped a 14:2X 5K, Kipsang was one of just two men to even attempt to cover the move. Kipsang's aggressiveness should not be rewarded with a ranking simply for the sake of it but would Rupp have managed a 2:07 under such conditions? We can only speculate but I would find it hard to see him hanging tough under such conditions and against such a strong field. So I give Kipsang performance in Berlin a nod over Rupp's olympic run and maybe call it tied for the trials. Advantage: Kipsang. If you need more convincing on this one, go rewatch the olympic marathon and compare it to London and Berlin. you might recognize your american bias then...

Tsefaye Abera... okay so here it is trickier. I think if only he had finished 4th or 5th or something in Rio he would've been easily ranked above the likes of Rupp. He burned a little hot early. A blazing tempo in Dubai leading to a 30K WR split left everyone devastated in his wake as he held together for a 2:04 finish. Three months later he dominated in the windy conditions at Hamburg. A weak 2:06 but again, go watch the headwinds. Kipchoge has the 2:05 CR and they went through well on pace for it at half way before hitting some serious wind. Better conditions wouldve given him the GOATs CR. I find it okay to rank Rupp above him. Rupp managed the year long consistency with his big trials win and then a late in the year Bronze. Advantage: Rupp

Without reading that u guys think rupp should be lower I also thought that, I just glossed over it but without much thought i would say he should be no higher than kipsang

Salazar said after the OT he thinks rupp is a 2:05 guy, even if he was conservative and rupp is eventually a 2:03 mid guy that is still weaker than kipsang this year

-- I gave this post little thought apologies if I got any of the numbers wrong--- or am missing people

I'm probably old school here, but being an Olympic year I personally think the rankings are quite simple. Olympics are where it's at, everyone brings their A game there, every country brings their A team there. Rupp takes 3rd at Olympics, he is ranked 3rd. I don't care who "didn't show up" or ran xyz some where else. They didn't place higher than Rupp when it counted then they aren't ranked higher.

It's like saying Golden State should be the NBA champs last year because they had the best record. They got beat in the final and aren't the champs.

Whooty wrote:

It's like saying Golden State should be the NBA champs last year because they had the best record. They got beat in the final and aren't the champs.

. . . and the year end rankings are about who was the best runner for the year not who won the championship race. Thus regardless of who won the championship game we are looking to crown the best team ie marathoner, of the year.

Eggnogger jogger wrote:

Rupp did beat Ghirmay Ghebreslassie by over a minute in rio which should count for something. Rupp never ran a fast marathon which does count for something but he only ran in hot weather in non paced marathons. I would rank him 4th or 5th

Yes it should but then Ghebreslassie went out and won the New York City marathon while Rupp was getting ready to get spanked at the Manchester road race by a bunch of no names.

To me, there is ZERO way Rupp can be ahead of Ghirmay. He ran 3 great marathons. Rupp ran at most 2.

Whooty wrote:

I'm probably old school here, but being an Olympic year I personally think the rankings are quite simple. Olympics are where it's at, everyone brings their A game there, every country brings their A team there. Rupp takes 3rd at Olympics, he is ranked 3rd. I don't care who "didn't show up" or ran xyz some where else. They didn't place higher than Rupp when it counted then they aren't ranked higher.

It's like saying Golden State should be the NBA champs last year because they had the best record. They got beat in the final and aren't the champs.

The issue is multifaceted here. (1) not all top marathoners consider the olympics the end game (2) not all top marathoners who should be at the olympics are at the olympics. They were not selected by AK or the ethiopian selection committee. (3) the marathon is a two peak kind of event. There are two championships per year - spring and fall.