Shannon Rowbury entered in Brussels 5000m, will she break the AR?

Do we have to continually be slobbered on by Shannon's hometown San Francisco trolls?

Trackbot! VDOT 30:13

David Freedman

Brave or foolhardy wrote:

messinat wrote:

It's a 50% chance. Either she breaks the record or she doesn't.

You are right. Either she breaks the record or she doesn't. But that fact alone tells us nothing about how likely she is to break the record. Suppose you toss an unfair coin. You either get heads or tails, but b/c the coin isn't fair, they aren't equally likely.

As for what the probability "really" is, I think it's like David Friedman said about earthquake predictions: in many situations, "probabilities are a distraction." They give a false sense of precision and accuracy. They don't tell us more than "She could break it, but I don't think she will."

Unless, of course, you are wagering on whether she will break the record. Then all bets are off.

[quote]Montesquieu wrote:

David Freedman[quote]

Ouch! Well that's embarrassing -- a Typo 1 error.

I suppose this means no more LRC grammar posse for me.

Rowbury should forget about Ayana and her World Record pace, go with the Women in the 14:25-14:40 range, she will blow up if she goes with that. Rowbury can run World Record 5k pace for 3k (8:30 for 3k is 14:10 for 5k) if she goes all out, run smart get the American Record, which is very doable, looking for her to do a mid 14:30, setting up next year to go under 14:30 for her or another American Woman.

Kid from somewhere wrote:

messinat wrote:

It's a 50% chance. Either she breaks the record or she doesn't.

I am attempting to break the marathon world record in my debut marathon. Fastest 5k is 18:40 I have 50% chance.... seems legit

If that is the only information we have, then it certainly is legit.

Brave or foolhardy wrote:

messinat wrote:

It's a 50% chance. Either she breaks the record or she doesn't.

You are right. Either she breaks the record or she doesn't. But that fact alone tells us nothing about how likely she is to break the record. Suppose you toss an unfair coin. You either get heads or tails, but b/c the coin isn't fair, they aren't equally likely.

As for what the probability "really" is, I think it's like David Friedman said about earthquake predictions: in many situations, "probabilities are a distraction." They give a false sense of precision and accuracy. They don't tell us more than "She could break it, but I don't think she will."

Unless, of course, you are wagering on whether she will break the record. Then all bets are off.

No, if we don't have any information to reduce the odds on either side, then it cancels out to 50/50. All bets are not off. It's 50/50.

Stop it will you wrote:

Do we have to continually be slobbered on by Shannon's hometown San Francisco trolls?

The Frisco Filly will be so hopped up on Rice-a-Roni that she will race like a runaway cable car.

Well, you did use a colon correctly, and that's so rare on this site that it buys you a "typo" and a future solecism.

Sausage fingers wrote:

[quote]Montesquieu wrote:

David Freedman[quote]

Ouch! Well that's embarrassing -- a Typo 1 error.

I suppose this means no more LRC grammar posse for me.

Exactly. And everyone drafts anyway. You're an idiot if you don't.

hypocrisy at its finest wrote:

lol talking about Rowbury drafting when you know damn well Simpson tried to draft off her the entire Zurich race.

I'm predicting 14:39. She hasn't run a 5k since the 14:48 but she's run the event at worlds before so it's not like she's a rookie.

NOP does two things: win medals and break ARs.

Odds man out wrote:

Frinlay wrote:

I put the odds at 22% chance that she breaks the record.

You are so wrong. I calculated the odds at 11.32%.

I calculate the odds as 3,720 to 1

Probably wrote:

NOP does two things: win medals and break ARs.

That was great when Shannon Rowbury of the NOP won ZERO medals at the 2016 Olympics!

What other women on the NOP won medals at the 2016 Olympics?

Ms. Jordan "Ponytail" Hasay? Treniere Moser? Mary Cain? Shannon?

Hmmm.

Jenny Simpson won a bronze medal…………... and she is coached by clean Mark Wetmore.

Emma Coburn won a bronze medal……….. and she is also coached by clean Mark Wetmore. She also broke the American record.

Oh well.

That is just a surprising coincidence.

Try again NOP troll pups.

90s scandals wrote:

No, if we don't have any information to reduce the odds on either side, then it cancels out to 50/50. All bets are not off. It's 50/50.

I always tell my students the uniform prior is like a martini -- it is useful, but only in moderation. In this case, I think we have enough information to say the chance she'll break the record is not 50/50.

I don't know about you, but if the odds were 1:1, it would bet against her breaking the record.

Montesquieu wrote:

Well, you did use a colon correctly, and that's so rare on this site that it buys you a "typo" and a future solecism.

That's a relief. Thank you!

Not to be an ingrate, but is that a real solecism, or one of those fake LRC grammar police solecisms? You know, the ones based on the sort of rules HL Mencken mocked so well:

"With precious few exceptions, all the books on style in English are by writers quite unable to write. The subject, indeed, seems to exercise a special dreadful fascination over schoolma’ms, bucolic college professors, and other such pseudo-literates....

"In a thousand texts they set forth their depressing ideas about it, and millions of suffering high-school pupils have to study what they say. Their central aim, of course, is to reduce the whole thing to a series of simple rules--the overmastering passion of their melancholy order, at all times and everywhere. They aspire to teach it as bridge whist, the American Legion flag-drill and double-entry bookkeeping are taught."

I predict that Ayana will break the world record, and then all the crying american white bithes there will start to badmouth her that she is doping.

almaz superwoman as clean as crystal !!!!!

mesfin wrote:

almaz superwoman as clean as crystal !!!!!

There seems to be almost no information about her.

I think she is coached by her husband…but I am not sure.

Does anyone know who her manager is? I don't know.