Rojo: your thought is not crazy. Do you have inside info? If Centro tries a 1500/5000 double, it would be very tough. Does he want to change events? Why would Centrowitz's chance to medal in 5000 be worse than his chance to medal in 1500? Those making the argument one way or another based on Matt Centrowitz Sr. are making a very poor argument.
rojo wrote:
So we just put a debate between some members of the staff about how many medals the US team will win in the mid-d and distance action in Rio.
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2016/01/predictions-new-year-many-mid-ddistance-medals-will-team-usa-win-2016-rio-olympics/When talking about the 5000, I wrote, "Jonathan’s main argument seems to be,'Let’s hope for a slow one.' Under that argument, might Centro be the US’s best medal hope at 5000? I’m serious. Yes, he might not make the team but generally the US 5000 race is often slow. Who is going to outkick him if it’s a 13:50 race like it was last year?"
I certainly don't think Centro should even debate doing the 5000. But if USAs is a 13:50 race, would he win it? Additionally, if Worlds is a 13:50 race, would he be America's best hope for gold?
Perhaps the best way to tell what an athlete's capabilities are is to look at what they have done. Beyond the financial incentives, pro athletes by nature are performance oriented; winning and setting PRs is like a drug. It is rare that an athlete will not do an event they think they can excel at. Centro does not run the 5k because Centro and his camp aren't confident he could be good at it. Perhaps that might all change. I can see him running one 5k in a season as a test, but I doubt it will be at the expense of a 1500/mile opportunity or at USATFs.
Perhaps Centro could be competitive in a slow one and done DL type 5K, but can he manage the global championships qualifier, which can sometimes be faster than the final and run two 5Ks in a week. The biggest challenge for Centro would probably be making the USA 5K team which is likely to be 13:20x race.
I'm surprised that no one has directly referenced Iguider. Fast 1500m guy (better PR than Centro) who doubled at the Olympics in 2012. He just barely beat Centro for bronze, so similar ability nonetheless. Then he doubled for the 5000m. Not sure if it was all the qualifying runs for both distances, or if it was just another example of a 1500m guy who can't quite hack it at 5000m, but in the final lap of the 5000m final Iguider had nothing left with 100m to go, despite being in that ridiculous 6-man fight from 400m out.
So, would Centro be a medal-contender? Eh, maybe for bronze on a good day. Is he a good hope for gold? Nope.
Why was a thread started about an obvious doper?
Star wrote:
I don't see a great history of 1500m runners beating 5000m runners in slow, sit-and-kick 5000m races.
I think you're right that 5000m runners tend to win 5000m races, regardless of how the race plays out. But there are certainly some notable examples of 1500 runners moving up and beating all comers, like Venuste Niyongabo and HIcham El Guerrouj.
Rojo,
No.
I don't get why you guys always compare the Olympics to world champs. They don't turn out the same. London was a long fast grind the last 2km, weeding out Only the true 5k athletes : qfe dejen gebremeskel, Thomas longosiwa, mo farah. Centros best chance is in the 1500m, period. Now, if The us Olympic trials are slow, then yeah he could win the 5,000
Remember, SEB COE SUCKED AT 5000M. There is no guarantee that Centro would rock it, although he is much better than Coe over 5000m.
How is a 3:30 guy going to outkick the 3:28 guy? Centro can't beat Mo at 1500m, let alone 5000m at this stage.
While Centro may have a shot at a medal in the 5000, there are so many things that would have to go perfectly, that this brings his chance way way down.
For one, who is to say Centro would have his kick after all the rounds? Especially if he runs the 1500 and 5000. Even if it were just the 5000, I don't think anybody can confidently say he would cruise through the rounds of the 5000 as he's only ran one (correct?) as a pro.
Also, it doesn't matter how fast you are the last 100, because if you're tired going into the bell lap, it doesn't matter. This has been Galen's problem in championship races his whole career, and he undoubtedly is aerobically stronger than Centro.
So maybe IF the half of the field that wants the pace to be fast is all feeling tired and they are having an off day, then only will Centro have a shot at a medal.
MR.B, out...
He looks smooth. He must be great at 5000!
LRC incompetence in a nutshell.
He might have a chance if sleazy adjusts his dosages.
I agree with Rojo.
Centro ran an AMAZING 2-mile in 8:41 beating Jager, Puskedra, Forys and others in high school. He was always a great xc guy, but above and beyond a track dude. He never even considered himself a miler in high school. He could easily run 13:05 now with very minimal changes in training.
Star wrote:
I don't see a great history of 1500m runners beating 5000m runners in slow, sit-and-kick 5000m races.
Um...ever hear of EL G?
hold the phone wrote:
Star wrote:I don't see a great history of 1500m runners beating 5000m runners in slow, sit-and-kick 5000m races.
I think you're right that 5000m runners tend to win 5000m races, regardless of how the race plays out. But there are certainly some notable examples of 1500 runners moving up and beating all comers, like Venuste Niyongabo and HIcham El Guerrouj.
Said Aoutia did pretty well in the 5k despite only being a bronze medalist in the 1500m the year before. He also did ok in fast races. Ovett did fine during his prime when running 5ks.
Until Centro runs a half dozen top level 5ks we have no clue of what camp he will fall into. My guess is he is a 13:05-13:10 runner but he could just as easily be a 12:55 guy.
He's not prepared physically, and more importantly he doesn't have the mentality for the 5k.
J.R. wrote:
He's not prepared physically, and more importantly he doesn't have the mentality for the 5k.
Word. Gangstas cannot hang for 5000m.
JRinaldi wrote:
How is a 3:30 guy going to outkick the 3:28 guy? Centro can't beat Mo at 1500m, let alone 5000m at this stage.
One's 1500 PR isn't indicative of one's 400 ability.
Would Mo have outkicked Said Aouita or Alan Webb (both of whom have slower 1500 PRs than Mo) in a slow 5000 at their respective peaks? Not likely.
do it do it wrote:
Star wrote:I don't see a great history of 1500m runners beating 5000m runners in slow, sit-and-kick 5000m races.
Um...ever hear of EL G?
You mean that sit and kick runner who set real world records? As compared to sit and kick runners who can't sniff a world record no matter how hard they kick.
The Ghost of Caesar wrote:
Yes, Centro sits and kicks, but it's not that simple. If you go back to the 2011 1500m final in Daegu, or the 2015 US Champ race, or the 2012 Olympic final, or even the 2013 final in Moscow, Centro's kick has been its strongest when there is a slow, steady buildup over 300m to 400m meters to top speed, rather than a rapid acceleration. Hard, fast, sudden changes of pace--like what Makhloufi pulled off in London, or what Kiplagat *tried* to pull off in Daegu--are most definitely not his forte.
Centro and his team know this, too, and they have been working for a while to improve upon it. You could argue that the Moscow final stands as an exception to this, but what's interesting about that race is that if you go back over the 100m splits for the last 600m or so, every 100m was progressively faster than the first; there was a kind of "wind up" to the sudden burst that Centro was able to pull off in the last 100m.
This sounds like alot like another really good US 5000/10000 NOP runner...
How many faster last laps have there been that Mo's 52.6 at last years World champs (in a championship race)?
Off the top of my head, maybe ElG in 2004 (52.6) and Lagat in 2007 (52.3) would be close....but I'm sure their final last 800m would have been slower than Mo's 1:48. Aouita only closed in 55.0 in LA in 1984 and was around 53.2 when he won in 1987 WC. Some might need to double check these, but I'm pretty sure I'm right.
In terms of kicking - it's all relative of where the kick starts. If it was left to the last 100m then you would back the person with the best 400m speed (or better still, the better acceleration), but given that most of these 'kicks' start from 500-400m out, it negates pure 400m speed a little. The previous 11.5 lasp might also have an impact.
I'd back Mo over Webb at any speed over 5000m.