Dick Pepperfield wrote:
Salazar and NOP are huge on how fast you can close the last 400m to snag a medal
Which is a stupid idea to have dominate all of one's training and existence.
Besides of which, Rupp isn't that fast of a kicker, and the tactic plays into the strengths of many who are. The races are designed to be 10000 meters, or 26.2 miles ` not 400 meters, which is an entirely different event.
You say "Unlike Rupp, Shorter was clearly better at the marathon than 10k"...but we can't say that. We don't know how good Rupp will be in the marathon because he's never run one.
I think he should try this 10k and marathon double. An Olympic 10,000m is really only a tempo for 8,000m and then a 2,000m race. There is plenty of time to recover and gear up for the marathon.
We have seen what he is capable of in the 5,000m...and we know he isn't going to medal in that event. We don't know what he is capable of in the marathon...it might turn out to be his strongest distance.
Star wrote:
We may want to ask why no top runner in the world does this double any more.
That's a point worth considering. If the question was "Could Galen Rupp double in the 1972 Olympics, and run 27:50 (twice) and 2:10?", I think most people would say yes.
But a 2:10 (or even, say, a 2:08 or equivalent effort depending on the conditions) won't put him on the podium in 2016, and a 27:50 won't even qualify him for the Games.
Obviously many things have changed, and there's little doubt that Shorter would run faster under today's conditions and against today's competitors. But one of the changes is that the depth of specialized competition in each event is greater.
hold the phone wrote:
But a 2:10 (or even, say, a 2:08 or equivalent effort depending on the conditions) won't put him on the podium in 2016
You know Meb has one Silver and also finished 4th last time.
And he's never run under 2:09.
Kenya and Ethiopia only get to enter 3 runners each and they don't all have a good day in the same race.
Cheap advise wrote:
If Rupp did indeed run the trials and make both the US 10k and marathon teams, and then ran the Oly 10k but ultimately passed on the marathon (but after having officially declared for the Oly marathon) would the first alternate (presumably the 4th place finisher in the US marathon trials) be able to take Rupp's place?
bump - I'm curious of this as well
It's true, we don't how good Rupp can be at the marathon, but AT THIS POINT IN TIME, with no experience at the marathon and having won a medal at 10k, Rupp is clearly better at 10k, just as Shorter was clearly better at the marathon before his first Olympic marathon, having ranked #1 the year before.
Star wrote:
hold the phone wrote:But a 2:10 (or even, say, a 2:08 or equivalent effort depending on the conditions) won't put him on the podium in 2016
You know Meb has one Silver and also finished 4th last time.
And he's never run under 2:09.
Kenya and Ethiopia only get to enter 3 runners each and they don't all have a good day in the same race.
2:10 would have won the most recent world championship, would have medaled at 4 of the last 6, and would have placed top 5 in all 6 of the last 6.
Les wrote:
It's true, we don't how good Rupp can be at the marathon, but AT THIS POINT IN TIME, with no experience at the marathon and having won a medal at 10k, Rupp is clearly better at 10k, just as Shorter was clearly better at the marathon before his first Olympic marathon, having ranked #1 the year before.
Being better at a distance vs another has nothing to do with your medal or place. It has to do with your time or ability. For example, Farah's best event is the 1500.
"Farah's best event is the 1500."
But, Farah has never won a top level 1500. He is not the best at that distance.
I think I read somewhere that Shorter either tolerated or actually liked to race in hot, humid conditions. If Rupp does the Rio marathon he should take his summer training to places like the Carolinas, GA or FL to get acclimated.
The fact that 2:10 etc. can win races today does not mean that much when comparing guys from the past. They did not run as fast in hot conditions as people generally do today.
Salazar trained in Gainesville, FL in 1984 before LA, but that didn't work out so well. Of course he was doing hard runs at noon, to try to get the most extreme conditions.
Salazar was past his peak in '84, pretty clearly.
It's fun to compare Rupp and Shorter.
It might be more fun to compare the current Rupp to the current Eluid Kipchoge. I'm a big fan of both runners. Hard to see anyone beating Kipchoge in Rio.
Another thought. Someone posted that the 10,000 is an 8000 tempo run then a 2000 meter race.
Geoffrey Kamworor and his countrymen Paul Tanui went hard almost the whole 10K race at worlds last summer. They likely will try again at the Olympics. They know it's their best short at world's. They are fairly fearless dudes.
Check Yo Facts wrote:
2:10 would have won the most recent world championship, would have medaled at 4 of the last 6, and would have placed top 5 in all 6 of the last 6.
Yes, I do know that -- that's why I wrote "or equivalent effort depending on the conditions," even though I thought it was completely obvious. 2:10 would have won the most recent world championship because it was held in Beijing rather than, say, Munich. It was considered a major upset that Ghebreslassie won, because he "only" had a PR of 2:07:47. Of course guys with modest PRs like Meb (or the bronze medalist this year, Mutai) sometimes sneak in for medals, but it's the exception rather than the rule.
Are you really arguing that (a) guys with 2:10 PRs should be considered podium favorites at Worlds and Olympics, and/or (b) there's no difference in the competitive level of the field between 1972 and now?
Les wrote:
It's true, we don't how good Rupp can be at the marathon, but AT THIS POINT IN TIME, with no experience at the marathon and having won a medal at 10k, Rupp is clearly better at 10k, just as Shorter was clearly better at the marathon before his first Olympic marathon, having ranked #1 the year before.
Shorter also ranked #2 in the world in the 10,000 in 1970, before his first marathon. He did rank #1 in the marathon in 1971, primarily because he won Fukuoka, which was the most prestigious race that year. The 10,000 rankings in 1971 were dominated by the European Championships results that year, whereas Shorter was limited to the U.S. Championships and Pan-Am games, both of which he won. So, I would respectfully disagree that he was "clearly" better at the marathon. Shorter was a versatile runner and was even competitive in the indoor 2M, sometimes upsetting more-favored athletes.
J.R. wrote:
Dick Pepperfield wrote:Salazar and NOP are huge on how fast you can close the last 400m to snag a medal
Which is a stupid idea to have dominate all of one's training and existence.
Besides of which, Rupp isn't that fast of a kicker, and the tactic plays into the strengths of many who are. The races are designed to be 10000 meters, or 26.2 miles ` not 400 meters, which is an entirely different event.
He was second best in the World in 2012. Don't hate the player, hate the game.
He had a broken bone in his foot. Ran a 10k in milwaukee 2 weeks prior to the games and decided not to double.
Les wrote:
Rupp could physically do it, but he usually hasn't recovered well after an all-out championship effort 10k. Also, Rio will presumably be warm and Rupp doesn't generally do well in the heat. Even if the pace was slow until the end, I see Rupp dropping out of a marathon in warm weather.
How do you know it will be warm?
el segundo wrote:
How do you know it will be warm?
The average August temperature for Rio is 75. The coldest month of the year (on average) is July at 70 degrees. Certainly there can be days colder than these numbers, considering they are just averages, but it is just as likely to be warmer, and I don't think anyone would argue that a marathon in 70-80 degree weather is anything but warm.