yes but... wrote:
. 10km on the grass is not the same as 1500 m on the track. Granted (excuse the pun) he did win the last two FL Championships but 5km for a miler is still much different than 10km against physically mature 5 and 10km runners.
What does physical maturity have to do with this?? He is a sub 4 miler. He is physically mature enough (whatever that means).
Saarel was 8th as a true freshman who was about as "physically mature" as Grant and Grant has the better xc and track resume from HS. Every runner, race, coach is different but I don't see how you can discount Fisher as a top 15 candidate.
jjkfjsdfklf wrote:
Saarel was 8th as a true freshman who was about as "physically mature" as Grant and Grant has the better xc and track resume from HS. Every runner, race, coach is different but I don't see how you can discount Fisher as a top 15 candidate.
The top freshman last year was 39th. Sam Wharton is no Grant Fisher, but I don't think Fisher is ready to be any better than 4th for the Cardinal this year, and I don't expect them to finish with 4 in the top 15.
No disrespect to Fisher, there are just more than a couple dozen guys with more experience, miles, and skills ahead of him at the NCAA champs.
Experience is trumped by talent. Talent is how Cheserek beat everyone in the NCAA in his first season. How Saarel, Puskedra, Derrick and many other talented freshman place in the top ten beating 5th year seniors that have been grinding away for years.
Everyone always overlooking Matt McClintock
Clayton Murphy #1
yes but... wrote:
Canadaman wrote:Fisher was born in Canada.
Yes but he is a US citizen. His mother is from Texas and he moved to the US when he was very young.
With respect to GF, perhaps some of these rankings are somewhat optimistic for the young miler IMO. 10km on the grass is not the same as 1500 m on the track. Granted (excuse the pun) he did win the last two FL Championships but 5km for a miler is still much different than 10km against physically mature 5 and 10km runners. Nonetheless, GF could be top 50 or even top 25 this year but most likely not top 10 as a true freshman, lower distance training, miler type. Give him some time to develop and he may be on the podium at NCAA cross country one day.
I tend to agree with this. 5th place at NCAA's is a bit high. I might place him the top 20 maybe 17th or 18th. Running a good race that day.
I just think is Saarel can get top 10 as a true frosh (Saarel focused on the same events as Fisher) I don't see why Grant can't. He may not, Justyn Knight was a top 20 talent and didn't get top 100. German was on his way to a top 10 finish and got hurt in the last few Ks, but predictions are looking at people on their best day. On Fishers best day I think he is a top 10 talent.
A big part of me hopes Cuffe will come back in amazing shape and blow the rest if the field out of the water. She has by far the best 5k pr so it isn't unreasonable but I feel like it's not going to happen
Erik Peterson for the win at panorama farms today. Hes going to be rolling in Louisville come November
runnerbro wrote:
no way Fisher beats sean mcgorty or places in the top 15
McGorty crushed Fisher at the Stanford Invite today
23:33 is still good for Fisher though
Cheserek- 23:33
McGorty- 23:37
Saarel- 23:40
These are all debut's from top FR coming into college (Granted (no pun intended) this was from the Indiana State course, Stanford has a fast course)
That 23:09 by McGorty shows me he deserves to be in the top 10
If the Rosas, McGorty, and Fisher all pack run and are in the top 15 at Nat's, they could win
5th man: Wharton? Keelan? Faye? Silva?
Colorado has depth, but Standord has depth too!
Hmmmmmmmm wrote:
I just think is Saarel can get top 10 as a true frosh (Saarel focused on the same events as Fisher) I don't see why Grant can't. He may not, Justyn Knight was a top 20 talent and didn't get top 100. German was on his way to a top 10 finish and got hurt in the last few Ks, but predictions are looking at people on their best day. On Fishers best day I think he is a top 10 talent.
Knight and Fisher are probably more comparable to background meaning lower milage types in high school. Saarel was a high milage kid in HS and most definitely is at Colorado. German was a high milage HS runner. Milt has stated he is bringing Fisher up slowly heck the kid ran unattached at the Stanford invite (23:33 very impressive) but he may redshirt him and 8 km is different than 10 km. McGorty ran very well, I think the fastest time ever at the Stanford invite. He has the maturity talent and training background to be a major factor at NCAA. The Rosa brothers will show their capability in upcoming races and cause LRC posters to hypothesize the possibility that Stanford could take down Colorado (which is a stretch but one never knows). I agree with Yes but... 10 km is very different than 1500 m. Fisher will do well if he runs but the true 5 - 10km runners will be the ones to factor in to the top 15. If Fisher had been a HS runner logging 80 mile weeks ( thankfully he wasn't) than maybe he would have the strength and talent like Saarel did as a Freshman in college to finish top 10. But he is not that kind of talent and his potential ceiling is very high (given time to mature). Stanford has a great group and so does Colorado (very impressive) as do other schools as well. Watch out for the Aussie at Villinova to challenge the Kenyan at Oregon and several Americans (a couple with red hair and a tall kid named McGorty) a Canadian (Knight) to battle for the remaining top 15. And watch for Fisher, in the years to come, to battle for top 15.
Fear the trees gave a smart post. Refreshing actually. No
Bashing, optimism about the team he is cheering for and a realistic view of 10km cross country and the background that requires. I wish the NCAA would drop the championship distance down to 8 km from 10 km and schools would have shorter races early season to enable the mid distance types to be more of a factor.
Training for 10km races as late teenagers or guys in their early 20's sacrifices speed development and turns a lot of young talent into road racers, half and full marathon types and diminishes their potential on the track (800, 1500, 3000, 5000).
Oh top 15... I don't know but I do think they will have all focused too much on mileage.
Lenny Leonard wrote:
Seems like a good list to me.
My darkhorses to make top-15 (ACC love):
Edwin Kibichiy (Louisville) - 23rd last year, 8:33 Steeple. Will have a stronger team this year to train with
Thomas Curtin (Virginia Tech) - Redshirted last year. 13:38 5K indoors, 4th at SE Regional and 69th at NCAA in 2013. 7th in the outdoor 5K (1 place behind Knight. Ahead of McGorty, Tiernan, and Leingang)
I was a little surprised to see Ches go down, but Thomas Curtin was being severely overlooked as a top contender at NCAAs
I'd say overall this thread had some good predictions - Any last minute top-15s?