hart crane wrote:
So you are saying there is a 0% chance Ben True wins gold?
Does anyone know what the fastest final 400 has been for True? final 800 as well?
If the conditions are poor, I really hope True stays in good position for the final few laps. He can endure sh1t conditions very well, and that DL 5k kick over Willis was impressive.
I suppose his chances of beating Mo are still very low.
Precious Roy wrote:
Let's not forget the hard kicking Hill and True. True ran 13:06 in Belgium and has the only 5k Diamond league win of any American. My money would still be on Farah. But, True and Hill can lay down a pretty serious kick in a tactical race. Just remains to be seen how they will deal with the heats and whether True will double.
Are you crazy? Like totally crazy? The 5000 has been down this year but True and Hill aren't kicking for gold. Barring a fall or food-poisoning, Farah seems like a LOCK for gold.
Hill for gold? What drugs are you on? Here is how hill has done in DL 5000s since last year
2015 Pre - 6th in a non DL race
2014 Zurich - 15th
2014 Glasgow - 14th
2014 Pre - 17th
Hell even look at last year's Payton Jordan, Hill was 7th. Making the final is a decent results for him.
As for True, he was just 3rd in Belgium in a race where he was killed by Gebremeskel and lost to a guy from Belgium. Yes he 'won' in NYC but the field there was awful. In terms of people who finished the race, True beat a grand total of ZERO people who will be running the 5000 at Worlds.
Here are the top 4 in the NYC race
1 Ben True USA 13:29.48
2 Nick Willis NZL 13:29.78 - not running 5000
3 Nguse Tesfaldet ERI 13:30.22 - doesn't even have standard. not running.
4 Thomas Longosiwa 13:30.26 - didn't make Kenyan team.
As for Huddle, I think I might have put her too high.
Huddle is in form and the 10,000 is weak as the big African studs aren't running it, except for one. Vivian Cheruiyot has been out a while but come on, she's a whole other class of runner from Huddle.
Head to head, Vivian leads Huddle 8 to 0 in their careers. Vivian ran 14:46 at the end of May in her first track race since 2012. Think about that. In her first race in 3 years, Vivian runs basically Huddle's lifetime PR. Her form can only have improved since then. Vivian has also run 8:39 for 3000 this year. Huddle's PB is 8:42.
If an Almaz Ayana or anyon of note from Ethiopia was in the 10k, we'd be saying Huddle would be lucky to get a medal. Yes, Flanagan and Goucher have done it in the past but only when EVERYTHING goes right.
dwightarm wrote:
This thread makes no sense.... JUSTIN GATLIN has the best chance for a gold medal!
ummm...ever heard of Jordan Hasay?
Yes. I hope he rips his hamstring in half.
kikKomen Soi sauce wrote:
ummmmm... ever hear of Justin Gatlin?
Everyone in there has better than 0%, so lets try to make these statistics a bit more realistic (distance only):
Jager 20% because he really is right there with the Kenyan team, but each of them will bring more experience in finishing that final lap.
Cabral 0.05% who knows?
Coburn 4% because she has had days where she looks unbeatable.
Simpson 3% because Dibaba could falter and Simpson is one of the top contenders if she does
Rowbury 1% for the case where it goes very fast and Dibaba falters.
Martinez 2% because on a great day she is right there on the home stretch. She has peaked very well in the past.
Centro 3% in a very good field if it goes somewhat slow and he gets the perfect lane through traffic.
Andrews 0.2% nice finisher if there is heavy traffic
Huddle 5% in a fast race
Flanagan 3% probably only if she leads it
D'Agostino 0.4% somewhat of a wildcard in very competitive races
Hall 0.2% similar to D'Agostino but a bit behind
True 1.5% because he really should be in it until the last lap and he does have a good history in adverse conditions (bad air quality is one of those)
Hill 0.8% because it might go slow and Farah can fall, pass out, or be DQ'd for micro-dosing
Leo 0.5% because he is not afraid to give himself a chance
Rupp 3% in the 10k because he really should be there in the end and maybe the drugs are working
Rupp 0.5% in the 5k because his turnover was poor at USA's and the Flotrack mile
My basic thinking is that anything can happen, and in one universe or the other anything will happen.
I think Rowbury will finish higher than Jenny.
Jager is the only real gold contender I see.
In terms of who I think will medal and likelihood:
Gold
Jager
Silver
Rupp
Centro
Rowbury
Huddle
Bronze
Simpson
Coburn
Montano
..............Andrews?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Gold medal hopefulls, eh? That will be tough as I've been thinking in terms of just medal hopefulls. But I'll take a stab at it.
1. Jager - outside shot
2. Simpson - has been there before but loaded event
3. Rowbury - more or less the same chance as Jenny
4. Montano - a lot can happen in an 800m, but Sum is really good
5. Centro - needs a lot of people to bomb out, but heck Leo got Oly Silver
6. Martinez - see Montano, but without the same creds
7. Coburn - Has a DL win but lackluster year
8. Huddle - would love to see it happen. safe medal bet, but gold?
9. Rupp - better medal chance than many of the above, but can't see a win
10. Sowinski - a lot can happen in an 800m
You seem to have forgotten that track and field is not just about distance races. We got Lashawn Merritt, Justin Gatlin (I hate him but still), Christian Taylor, Bershawn Jackson, Johnny Dutch, Torie Bowie even, among others.
coach d wrote:
Joe Kovacs
Ashton Eaton
Jeff Henderson
Tianna Bartoletta
Allyson Felix
Justin Gatlin (twice)
Candyce McGrone (women's 200)
Christian Taylor
Lashawn Merritt
M&W 4X100
M&W 4X400
US is very strong in the womens hurdles, I would add:
Sharika Nelvis 100m hurdles and Shamier Little 400m hurdles
Tbh, I'm pretty sure Dibaba would win even if she were sick, so Simpson and Rowbury are out.
Rupp has looked like a hot mess lately, along with Coburn, so that would be tough too... Also, I can't really see Sum losing, which eliminates Montaño and Martinez.
Kiprop is so inconsistent that I could see somebody like Monzano or Centro pulling of a surprise like Simpson did in Daegu.
I think Molly Huddle and Evan Jager are the two main contenders for gold; the 10k for women is weak, and Jager has looked superb this season.
1. Evan Jager
2. Molly Huddle
3. Emma Coburn
4. Matt Centro / Leo Monzano
NO - Jenny Simpson
NO - Galen Rupp
NO - Shannon Rowbury
NO - Alysia Montano
NO - Brenda Martinez
Michelle Carter Shot Put. I'll be back in two weeks to pick up my prize.
How has nobody mentioned Ashton Eaton??? Worst case he doesn't win gold (would be crazy!) and Trey Hardee does.
1. Gatlin 100/200
2. Oliver 110h
3. Jager 3000 sc
4. Coburn 3000 sc
5. Huddle 5000?
6. Simpson 1500
7. Centrowitz 1500
8. Rowbury 1500
9. Jackson 400h
10. Rupp 5000/10000
Outside of the top 3 (gatlin, Oliver, jager) I have a hard time seeing anyone else get gold. I could definitely see Coburn making the podium and a couple 1500m runners make the podium but at this point Galen Rupp seems like an afterthought. Who knows, he'll probably prove us all wrong and finish 2nd like he did in London 2012
Oops.^ Huddle is 10000m
Usa girls in that 800 are dirty....The only way montana and lugo what ever her name is..is to trip or play dirty......let's see what the heck there going to do......god has a plan for ajee her....get rid of montana and luglo...they've been trying to beat sum for 8 to ten years.....nike and that crew r dirty.....me if I were there...I getting kicked out are na. ...and swung on there coaches...and told his runners cut the shit.....and worry about what ever.i can and I would have...after I know I would have done it.......god knows I could have been..but i choose not to..... I just stay put......an pray....god forgive them.....in my heart and hands on I know......and all forgotten.....
Anyone who does not have Centro already penciled in for GOLD is out of their freakin gourd.
Centro is THE MAN.