If Kiprop doesn't run hard wire-to-wire, Centro will get the gold.

I'm going to pick makloufi. I don't like him, but I think he will win. That 1000m and 3:28 he ran....and his history of winning big races with rounds. Call me crazy, but kiprop won't win.

Bambo wrote:

Centro is proven to be a more savvy racer than Kiprop (that's even with Kiprop's recent toying with the field). Centro also has the goods to close hard over the last 800m, especially over the last 600. Obviously, Kiprop, barring disaster, will be in top shape. So if he runs his best, Centro doesn't really have a chance. But I am predicting Savvy Centro to blow the doors off everyone in a slow race, from way out. There are too many fast 800-speed guys this year (Souleiman, Mack-daddy, Kiprop, heck...even Willis...relatively) for him not to go hard with 600-500 left.

Also, this must be the best 1500 field running since the late 90's. Should be fun to watch.

Right now it's a countdown between Kiprop maintaining peak another 4 weeks v. Makh's dosing schedule. We are on the edge of our seats.

Centro is THE MAN wrote:

He WILL win GOLD. If not in 2015 WC then certainly 2016 OG.

Yes, "Centro" who is SIX SECONDS off the world's best this year and ranked NOT EVEN TOP TEN, will "certainly" when Olympic gold.

2/10.

Hair Of The Dog wrote:

Right now it's a countdown between Kiprop maintaining peak another 4 weeks v. Makh's dosing schedule. We are on the edge of our seats.

Don't forget Centro is "rounding into shape."

Well, no one ever runs hard wire-to-wire in a championship race (outside of El G on 1999).

So you're just giving the Gold to Centro.

Maybe Kiprop and his 3 major Golds isn't as savvy a racer but being a much faster runner can make up for a lot.

Kiprop lead the world in 2012 and crapped out at the Games. And his best time was shortly before the Olympics.

So anything can happen.

"But I am predicting Savvy Centro to blow the doors off everyone in a slow race, from way out. There are too many fast 800-speed guys this year (Souleiman, Mack-daddy, Kiprop, heck...even Willis...relatively) for him not to go hard with 600-500 left."

Who do you mean by "him" needing to go hard with 600-500 left?

Kiprop or Centro?

Centro's not blowing anyone's doors off from there or anywhere.

But I do think Centro can win, but it would be holding on by a thin margin.

The scenario where Centro wins is if he has a nice unimpeded run over the last lap (savvy running will help there) and the top horses keep banging into each other making multiple moves and losing some momentum.

To be fair, Kiprop didn't "crap out" in 2012. It's called being injured.

Star wrote:

Well, no one ever runs hard wire-to-wire in a championship race (outside of El G on 1999).

.

As someone else stated, it won't need to be "hard wire to wire". It just needs to be faster than 3:33 or 3:32. In such a race, Centro will be destroyed.

Kiprop 2012 wrote:

To be fair, Kiprop didn't "crap out" in 2012. It's called being injured.

Kiprop made the final in 2012. You can't make the final if you're injured.

I understand he wasn't in full form and his hamstring was nagging him.

He crapped out.

He can get injured before Beijing.

Plenty of things can stop him from winning.

If he feels good, it's hard to imagine him losing no matter how savvy Centro runs.

Hi you wrote:

Star wrote:

Well, no one ever runs hard wire-to-wire in a championship race (outside of El G on 1999).

.

As someone else stated, it won't need to be "hard wire to wire". It just needs to be faster than 3:33 or 3:32. In such a race, Centro will be destroyed.

Look at the subject line.

" If Kiprop doesn't run hard wire-to-wire, Centro will get the gold."

I am saying that it won't be run hard all the way so therefore the OP is guaranteeing Centro Gold.

Personally, I think Kiprop should win even if it's slower than 3:40.

Bambo wrote:

I am predicting Savvy Centro to blow the doors off everyone in a slow race, from way out.

Are you willing to put money down on that? I'd probably say the following proposition should have 3:1 odds: "If the opening 800 meters is 2:00 or above, Centro will not get a gold medal."

I would put a little money on this but I think it's too much of a pain to set up a betting account and stuff and I just checked for presidential races and a lot of silly things are illegal in the U.S.

Bambo wrote:

Centro is proven to be a more savvy racer than Kiprop (that's even with Kiprop's recent toying with the field). Centro also has the goods to close hard over the last 800m, especially over the last 600. Obviously, Kiprop, barring disaster, will be in top shape. So if he runs his best, Centro doesn't really have a chance. But I am predicting Savvy Centro to blow the doors off everyone in a slow race, from way out. There are too many fast 800-speed guys this year (Souleiman, Mack-daddy, Kiprop, heck...even Willis...relatively) for him not to go hard with 600-500 left.

Also, this must be the best 1500 field running since the late 90's. Should be fun to watch.

Kiprop just beat him in a slow run race after giving him a massive head start

ukathleticscoach wrote:

Kiprop just beat him in a slow run race after giving him a massive head start

That's what I saw. Kiprop used London as a test to see if he had to keep the pace high to be safe. Combine Monaco and London and I don't see many chinks in Kiprop's armor. First 800 in London definitely showed that Kiprop has gotten into everyone's head.

cool kid wrote:

Mr E wrote:

Ummmm...ever heard of Jim Ryun?

Ryun was running against great runners obviously, but fact is 1500 running is incredibly deep right now, maybe the best in history ( besides guerrouj lagat era) Ryun has one olympic silver.

Centro has WC silver and Bronze and multiple US champs.

If Centro wins another medal he will be better. The main thing he's lacking is fast times.

Ryun was amazing, no doubt, and he could've gone much faster on modern tracks ( NOT 1:39 though) but if Centro gets another medal he will be the best.

Steve Scott would have a better chance of getting a medal in a fast race than Centro, we don't have to go all the way back to Ryun.

I would put money down. You can pay me through paypal.

Can we get a disinterested third party to hold the payment in escrow? Is this illegal? Gizmodo suggests it's a grey area

http://gizmodo.com/5911582/how-to-bet-on-sports-online

.

If these questions can be answered to my satisfaction, I'll put $10 down at 2:1 odds. That is, I'll put $10, you'll put $5, and the bet goes into effect if the first 800 is >2:00.00, you win if Centro wins gold, I win if he doesn't.

Do you accept the odds? Would the rest of you accept them?

I think that unfortunately this is all empty talk because we won't be able to find a way to do this that minimizes risk and also I'm not willing to pay a fee to attempt to prove a stranger wrong on the internet.

The pace is usually 1:56-59 and 2:55-57 at 1200m. Those are extremely common paces at OG or WC in last 15-20 years. A lot can happen in the next month.

The only reason centro has won anything is because no one respects him or cares about him on the international scene and he sneaks in when the pace lags. Many will think this is disrespecting centro, I am not a fan of his, but he does seize the moment and that is to his credit. There are at least 5 Kenyans who would beat cento head to head on any given day (probably more) including kiplagat or chepseba, souleiman, mahkloufi, Iguider, wote. Kiprop is worried about these guys, centro doesn't even pop up on the radar.

Respectfully, this is the only way centro has a chance...if Kiprop models his approach on these other threats leaving the back door open.

why would kiprop not run hard? he is on his own level, much like 2012 rudisha. centro has a good shot at 2nd place but makloufi is just as good IMO

dumb speculation wrote:

why would kiprop not run hard? he is on his own level, much like 2012 rudisha. centro has a good shot at 2nd place but makloufi is just as good IMO

Though I think Kiprop can win it either way, I agree he should do it "the hard way". There's less that can go wrong.

Also, I would say Centro has *a shot* (not necessarily a "good" shot) at second place. Makloufi, Souleiman, Willis, and Iguider have a better chance than he does at grabbing second in my opinion (definitely the first two, closer between him and the second two). If Kiprop takes it hard from the gun, I think Centro's chances drop even more.