SmalITimeTC wrote:
I just see 2:06-2:08 his likely ceiling. But given how Salazar coaches marathoners he may be more 2:08-2:10.
This is pretty much on the money. He probably has the physical capability to run 2:06 or a little under but is handicapped by the lack of know how demonstrated in his coach's record at producing marathoners. Like Ritz, breaking 2:08 would be a pretty good achievement for him.
Speed is speed wrote:
glxccc wrote:Also, Alberto continually points out that Rupp is an excellent overall athlete (played him once in basketball) and that he has tremendous leg speed..
Yes but does he have FOOT speed
Most importantly of all, what about his leg speed velocity?
Captain Leg Speed Velocity wrote:
Speed is speed wrote:Yes but does he have FOOT speed
Most importantly of all, what about his leg speed velocity?
Pretty good considering his lousy leg torque.
Rupp will never be good at marathons because he's not naturally skinny. The fast marathoners all grew up starving so they have a lightweight bone structure.
dfsdaafad@asdf wrote:
SmalITimeTC wrote:I can't see Rupp ever going below 2:06 unless he gets a Ryan Hall-esque Boston conditions day. He's 28 now, by the time Rio 2016 rolls around he'll be 30 and pushing 31. They'll take some off time after Rio to gear up for whatever is next- maybe the marathon. Likely debut at 32 at the earliest. I can't think they would rush him into a debut like Mo did after seeing what happened there.
Probably will take him at least 2-3 marathons to figure it out and he's looking at 34 at least until he can maximize his potential. Not that young anymore. For every Meb and Lagat there are countless others like Webb, Solinsky and Teg who are finished by 29.
Around 30 seems to be when the injury bug hits and when it does it hits a lot harder than if he was 23, hope he stays healthy but who knows. I just see 2:06-2:08 his likely ceiling. But given how Salazar coaches marathoners he may be more 2:08-2:10.
Aging is a crap shoot. Geb and Tergat had pretty decent marathon careers despite not running it til their 30s.
It is easy to pick on Salazars coaching but some of it is just the runner. Some guys do well at the half but can't run marathons while other guys get better as the distance goes up. Until Rupp runs a marathon, we will not know what group he is in.
Not necessarily true. Geb had a good career compared to others at the time. I would not have been shocked if he were capable of much better if he moved up in 1998 beating the times of the guys who are now beating his times. He moved up 3-4 years later coming off an injury, then struggled a bit, went back to track then moved up again.
Bad Wigins wrote:
Rupp will never be good at marathons because he's not naturally skinny. The fast marathoners all grew up starving so they have a lightweight bone structure.
Thanks. I was curious about why you had such a lightweight brain structure. This explanation helps.
In answer to the OP's question, I don't think Rupp will be particularly successful in the marathon. But if he ran's 2:09:45, he'll easily make the 2016 Olympic team, if that's his goal.
But if he can run a 26:44 off a decent but not spectacularly fast 10K pace, and kick in strong, he can get another medal in 2016. Perhaps not gold, but a medal.
Depends on what new medical condition Salazar could discover Rupp has.
The NOP juice doesn't work for marathons.
Noticing...Ahem wrote:
Go Browns! wrote:You're crazy if you don't think Rupp can eventually run 2:03.
^ Certainly in the running for stupidest post in the history of LRC.
Forgive him. He's a Browns fan.
Fail,
If you look at his progression it tells us he is more endurance based then speed. Do you have any idea what 26:44 converts to? I know Canova talks about it being his current PB but this is one time I disagree with him. 26:44 is obviously an average of 13:22, the guy in theory should be able to run 12:51-12:53. However he struggles to do so because he needs a perfectly paced race to have a shot at it. But in the 10000m he can close hard off an honest pace.
Yup, no endurance at all...26:44. some people don't know a thing about running....
I'm not even a rupp fanboy but I understand physiology enough to know that a guy who run's that fast can run AT LEAST 2:06. He may never run 2:04 but he will be in the 2:05-2:06 range.
Like do you seriously think Ryan Hall, and Ritz will end their careers with better marathon PB's then he will if he goes to 26.2......your delusional.
God I hate amateur hour.
Salazar Effect:
Did you also predict that Puskedra would run 2:28? Fuzzy numbers do not equal marathon success.
How about amateur spelling hour? It's "you're."
DaveF wrote:I understand physiology enough to know that a guy who run's that fast
ughhh...
DaveF wrote:
I'm not even a rupp fanboy but I understand physiology enough to know that a guy who run's that fast can run AT LEAST 2:06. He may never run 2:04 but he will be in the 2:05-2:06 range.
God I hate amateur hour.
Just like Tadesse.
I don't know whether Rupp would be great at the marathon or not. Nobody does.
I'd much rather see him continue to run great at 5 and 10 on the track. My bias is that I am a track fan. Sure, the marathon is wonderful. Heck, one of the great moments in my life was seeing Boston Billy run his 2:09:55. But give me a great 5 or 10 on the track anyday.
Wossamotta says: But if he can run a 26:44 off a decent but not spectacularly fast 10K pace, and kick in strong, he can get another medal in 2016. Perhaps not gold, but a medal.
Rupp ran 2644 by having "benefactors" pay a runner to break wind for him. Rupp would not run 2644 in the Olympics because the other runners won't sacrifice themselves for Rupp.
Guess who:
800m: 1:50.00
1500m: 3:34.15(outdoor)
Mile: 3:50.92
2 Mile: 8:07.41(indoor)
3000m: 7:30.16
5km: 12:58.90
10km: 26:44.36
Half-Marathon: 1:00:30 first half-marathon
Guess who:
800m: 1:49.35
1500m: 3:33.73(outdoor)
Mile: 3:52.39
2 Mile: 8:04.64(indoor)
3000m: 7:25.09
5km: 12:39.36
10km: 26:22.75
Half-Marathon: 1:00:03 first half-marathon
Because he naturally sucks at the mile.(Similarly, Farah's 3:28 6th fastest all time 1500m suggests to me that he was lucky to run 2:08)Rupp should be better than Farah at the distance, and should be capable of at least matching Ritz's PB.Could he get the American record? Maybe.Could he match today's Kenyans? Maybe not.But he'd have to run it to see.
stick with eharmony wrote:
I don't think he will break 2:08, ever. If you look at his progression from the mile to 5k to the 10k, it's pretty clear he would struggle at the Marathon because he lacks the hard core endurance required to run sub 2:08.
I agree that it's premature.
Road running is stylistically different from track running (regarding efficient technique, for instance it's easier to run on your toes on a track) and even at the Half Marathon, some good 10k runners get defeated by road running specialists.
I think Rupp is an efficient runner, that's probably his competitive advantage (compared to someone like Solinsky who is more of just a machine). He has to transition that.
Even a half marathon is very different from a 10k.