Great Job, Ryan Vail...

Sorry for the typos, on phone. Should have been "kipsang" and "average for white American"

I do not think anyone has said that Vail should have kept pace with the former WR holder. I think much of Vail, and I could have seen him finishing in fifth, behind Meb (as stated above). I also noted that I could be missing something here, and perhaps I am.

For me, being 11 years younger than Meb, with 150 mile weeks, good track work, and what seems a good attitude meant something, and so I thought I would explore this matter.

No, I am not retarded, and I do not know why people on this forum use such offensive language. It takes away from the conversation, and hinders others in their queries, interests, and observations. It is also rude and uncharitable.

With regard the height, the CDC posts a 5'9.3" US average for men, and another source shows that 5'10.5" is the average for white US males, 20-39. In either case, Vail is below average. I suppose one can say he is about average if one uses the broader CDC average alone.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/body-measurements.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_height

4:56 projects a 2:09, which is his MP goal... If you read his blog he runs that pace twice per week.

elmore345 wrote:

Its only his second marathon. Mebs done more marathons than eaten hot dinners.

4th marathon

2012 Trials

2013 Fuokoka

2014 London

2014 New York

With no spring marathon for him in 2015, hopefully he drops into the 13:20s/27:30s on the track and then runs a Berlin or Chicago in the fall.

If Meb is the USAs top marathoner, and I'd reckon he is, then Vail is our #2, especially when it comes to a tactical race. His strength should be right where it needs to be for the 2016 trials and Rio (I believe he will make it), but he will need to work on finishing speed as you might need a 29:00 final 10k to medal these days.

outsiderunner wrote:

but I think he should have been more like fifth. Perhaps I am naïve or uninformed, but Vail has all the essentials. I know I saw at least two if not three pre-race 150-mile weeks in his log, and another 140-mile week. Thus, it seems to me that Vail is putting in the work. Just read his bio, and one knows he is obviously talented. He has a prototypical marathoner's physique (short/lean). Why was he not up there with Meb? What I am missing?

I mention these things not--in any way--to denigrate his performance, as ninth in a major marathon is excellent. But what else can Vail do? Is he simply missing the "seasoning" of a marathoner?

Vail seems like a nice guy. I wish him all the best.

What he is missing is not being of East African ethnicity.

AndyDufresne wrote:

4:56 projects a 2:09, which is his MP goal... If you read his blog he runs that pace twice per week.

Twice in some weeks. And even then the second one may not be long enough. (Mile repeat, 2km repeat, etc.)

I would not call it "huge" volume compared to his overall mileage.

Lenny Leonard wrote:

elmore345 wrote:

Its only his second marathon. Mebs done more marathons than eaten hot dinners.

4th marathon

2012 Trials

2013 Fuokoka

2014 London

2014 New York

With no spring marathon for him in 2015, hopefully he drops into the 13:20s/27:30s on the track and then runs a Berlin or Chicago in the fall.

If Meb is the USAs top marathoner, and I'd reckon he is, then Vail is our #2, especially when it comes to a tactical race. His strength should be right where it needs to be for the 2016 trials and Rio (I believe he will make it), but he will need to work on finishing speed as you might need a 29:00 final 10k to medal these days.

Come on man!

New York 2014 was Vail's 5th Marathon:

2012 Trials

2012 Fukuoka

2013 New York

2014 London

2014 New York

I agree on your other points

Great guy, great work ethic, just poor coaching.

He'd benefit a lot to have a good coach that could actually coach him in person.

In-person coaching--now that makes sense.

I interviewed Ryan both pre and post-race for a podcast I put out (here's the full thing:

http://www.strivetrips.org/strivecast/005/

)

He said that he likes a course like NYC because the harsh conditions and course play to his strengths - that it's more of an "equalizer." He cited today's performance as similar to the American team's silver World XC medal in Poland; the conditions allowed him to be a lot more competitive with guys who are a lot faster than him at shorter distances.

As others have pointed out, he does log publicly which I think is great for the sport as it allows fans a bit more insight into elite training. It looks like his long MP efforts were pointing to him being in shape to run ~2h09 on a flat course on a fair day and obviously he had neither of those. He did finish 5 minutes behind Kipsang who is a 2h03 guy, but those 5 minutes were basically all in the last 12km...

You can listen/read the interview, but I think he was pleased with his race. I think his progression is overall positive and in the right direction. This is a guy who seems to think long term - improving a bit and increasing training a bit each year - so I think he's pleased but knows he still has more in the tank.

Too much risk to change coaching method now.

It could work well, but could also ruin him.

outsiderunner wrote:

I do not think anyone has said that Vail should have kept pace with the former WR holder. I think much of Vail, and I could have seen him finishing in fifth, behind Meb (as stated above). I also noted that I could be missing something here, and perhaps I am.

For me, being 11 years younger than Meb, with 150 mile weeks, good track work, and what seems a good attitude meant something, and so I thought I would explore this matter.

Meb is a statistical anomoly both with his age and how well he finishes in races despite having a relatively slow PR (2:08:37 which IS STILL way faster than Vail), so stop comparing Vail to him. Your mistake is that you assume because Vail has ran 2:10:57 and trained hard for this race, all of a sudden he should be at a different level. Either that, or you aren't realizing how far away he is from the type of level it takes to finish top 5 in NYC. You can train hard and not improve at all. Or train hard and get worse. Improvement (especially at the marathon) is not a linear progression.

Ryan Vail should not have been 5th. He shouldn't have even been 9th, but there were people better than him who ran poorly. Look at the profile of the top 20:

1) Wilson Kipsang - 2:03:23, former WR holder

2) Lelisa Desisa - World silver medalist, 2:04:45 PR

3) Gebre Gebremariam - 2:04:53

4) Meb - Olympic silver (2004), has won NYC and Boston, 2:08:37 PR from last year

5) Stephen Kiprotich - REIGNING OLYMPIC AND WORLD CHAMPION; 2:07:20 PR

6) Geoffrey Mutai - 2:03:02 aided at Boston, 2-time NYC champ and CR holder

7) Masato Imai - 2:09:30 on a course slower than London where Vail ran his 2:10:57

8) Peter Kirui - 2:06:31

9) Ryan Vail - 2:10:57 PR from less than a year ago on one of the fastest courses in the World

10) Nick Arciniaga - 2:11:30 PR

11) Yuki Kawauchi - 2:08:14 PR

12) Lusapho April - 2:08:32 PR

13) Birhanu Dare Kemal - 2:18:24 in NYC ... THIS is the first guy on this list who is truly worse than Ryan Vail. Nick Arciniaga is pretty much at the exact same level (in the marathon).

14) Micah Kogo - 2:06:56 PR

15) Danilo Goffi - 2:08:33 PR, but he's 41 so I guess we can cut him some slack

16) Stephen Shay - 2nd guy on this list who is worse than Ryan Vail

17) Michael Kipyego - 2:06:48 PR

18) Negash Abebe Duki - 2:11:14 PR

19-20) Two other guys worse than Ryan Vail

What's the point? Even if Vail was in 2:09 shape and executed a perfect race (and that's a stretch since 2:10:57 to 2:09:00 is a big jump at this level and it's VERY hard to get the marathon 100% right), then best case scenario, he was the 12th best guy in this race. And that's not even counting anyone who DNFd or finished outside the top 20 since I didn't look into that.

And all those other guys in this race were training extremely hard putting in the miles too. Realistically, Vail could have ran an average race and still finished 15th. So to finish 9th is actually an extremely good race for him and better than he technically should have finished. For him to finish top 5 would have just been insane. He would have had to beat the current World and Olympic champion who is about 4-minutes faster than him, not to mention 2:03:02 man G. Mutai and 2:06 man Peter Kirui.

Vail ran a great race and deserves props. He has done nothing (in any of his 4 marathons) to indicate he should have finished any better than he did.

outsiderunner wrote:

No, I am not retarded, and I do not know why people on this forum use such offensive language. It takes away from the conversation, and hinders others in their queries, interests, and observations. It is also rude and uncharitable.

With regard the height, the CDC posts a 5'9.3" US average for men, and another source shows that 5'10.5" is the average for white US males, 20-39. In either case, Vail is below average. I suppose one can say he is about average if one uses the broader CDC average alone.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/body-measurements.htmhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_height

As far as my language goes, I'll leave this one to Michael Scott:

With regard to height, if we agree that average is between 5'9.3" to 5'10.5" and Vail is 5'9.XX" then there is no way he is "short". Maybe he could technically be "below average", but not in any way that's going to give him an advantage at marathon running.

When someone says, "He's got a good a build for the marathon, he's short and skinny", that "short" is not talking about guys who are a millimeter below the national average. We're talking 5'5" to 5'7".

If you prefer to call a 5'9" man below average rather than short, I will not argue with you. My preference is to discuss and analyze, not to argue.

The rest of your analysis, while interesting, may not be telling the whole story, so to speak. True, Vail could have been the twelfth best runner in that race, but maybe, at the starting line, he was not. Previous performances and such do not tell the entire story. Yes, they are important, but they are not everything. And if one runs poorly in a race, then perhaps he is no longer in the "place" one had expected him to occupy among the leaders.

These are interesting and complex matters, and that is why I started this discussion--to shed light on something that is a bit dim, at least to me.

As an analogy, I mention that tomorrow I will run in my first half marathon. I am thankful for the progress I have made in the past 6-7 months. Some of that progress showed in a Labor Day four-miler when I beat some people I normally lose to. After that race, one of them came up to me, and, after congratulating me, asked what I had been doing since he had last seen me (a few months prior). I discussed it with him. It seemed as if he viewed me as a different runner.

I am nervous about tomorrow, but I will try to be confident in my training and in the coaching I have received, and I realize I have made even a little more progress. I must not think of the guys I know and have lost to as being better than I. I must be humble and respect the course and my competitors, but I must realize that perhaps I can run with them.

All the best to those in a similar situation this weekend.

Cool story, bro.. one more thing.. hope you didn't screw up your taper like Vail..

Thanks very much...

The taper has been going well, but hopefully I did not mess it up just now. I just got back from my final little five-miler. I got some new shoes. Normally, performance shoes are too narrow, and give me blisters. These, however, felt good when trying them on yesterday, and so I ran with them today.

The good news is that the shoes felt good and I got no runs or blisters. However, I could not help but fly in these shoes (about 3 ounces lighter than what I am used to), and I went too fast for the day before a race. Out of the five miles, one was right at my target race pace, and the other two were 10 second faster than race pace.

In any case, I hope for the best tomorrow. I certainly feel some good fitness.

Sorry for the typos--I meant "no rubs" and that I was 10 "seconds" faster than race pace.

The half marathon went very well...very happy with my performance.