Interesting article by RW on how the sub-2 marathon is possible

cbhbhbd wrote:

sports fan wrote:http://rw.runnersworld.com/sub-2/

What does the LRC community think? Is it possible? If not why not? and are there other things that can be added to make it more possible(besides doping)?

Slick presentation, though separating causation from correlation remains a challenge. Agree with cold temperatures, and straight and flat roads being important. The physiological analysis was rubbish. Zersenay Tadese has the highest economy recorded and has a high VO2 max. He's short (1.60 m), light (54 kg), and fast (HM 58:23). Yet his marathon PR is 2:10. There is more to running a fast marathon than described. Note that a donkey like Clayton ran faster than Tadese twice.

Cold temperatures? No thanks. Cool temperatures yes, 55 not 45 or lower, that would waste energy not save it.

The Zarsenay Tadesse economy thing is BS. Either he was tested at 400m pace or the measurement was way off.

NUFCrichard wrote:

Why can't they get fresh pacemakers at the halfway point, then there will be rabits the whole way.

They should also have a red dot on the ground show the runners the 2h pace, then the pace will be as steady as possible.

It wouldn't be a true race, or world record (same as having male pacers for women), but could result in a sub 2h marathon.

If you're going to break the rules for a ratified record you might as well make the course downhill, too.

It would still be a sub 2 hour marathon.

Star wrote:

If you're going to break the rules for a ratified record you might as well make the course downhill, too.

It would still be a sub 2 hour marathon.

Downhill? Why not completely vertical? Didn't quite make it 26.2, but looks like 36,402.6m (22.6mi) in 4:19, or 11.46 seconds per mile average.

Her's a summary of the article's nine proposed requirements for, or expectations of, a sub-two-hour-marathon, stripped of the pretty charts and editorial commentary.

The race will require:

1. Cool weather

2. A flat, fast course

3. Pacemakers

4. Large financial incentives

The runner who manages the feat will be:

5. Biomechanically efficient (and 5a, will have a "Radcliffe-like" vertical leap)

6. Small in stature

7. Mentally focused and confident

8 .Using technology not yet in play

9. Relatively young

Also, he is likely to be East African by birth.

Anyone care to explain what's novel and not painfully obvious about everything on this list?

While the article serves as a decent platform for exploring the statistical details inolved, it makes no unusual or even contestable claims with the possible expection of two: 5a, which can safely be tossed for a variety of reasons (a number of top marathoners do plyometrics aimed at increasing their overall leg strength), and 8, which is like any other "just you wait" claim -- i.e., non-falsifiable.

Then there's the matter of using a trend line to establish the accelerating drop of the men's WR since 1998. Recall that similar trend lines have been used to "prove" that women will one day overtake men in most track and field and road-running events. Since the end of the 20th century, more and more East African runners have been diving full-force into the marathon from a young age and forsaking the track altogether, something not seen nearly as often throughout the 1980s and 1990s, when East Africans had firmly taken control of road running but had not yet swarmed it to the extent they do now. What we're seeing with the drop in times over the past 15 years or so can almost certainly be ascribed far more accurately to sociological factors than to physiological breeakthoughs. This is not to discount the contribution of the latter altogether, but I wonder how many of the sport's longtime informed voices (none of whom write with any attitude of seriousness for Runner's World) would opine that there is some kind of watreeshed sports-medicine magic in the mix today that was previously absent.

Look at what has happened with women's track times in just the past decade. The Kenyan women have been largely caught up with their male countrparts in terms of access to races for quite a few years now, but Ethiopia has lagged behind. Now, in Diamond Leeague meets and elswhere, we see all but nameless athletes running close to or well under the American records of 8:25 for 3K and 14:42 for 5K. Even Shalane Flanagan's astonishing (and perfectly timed) 30:22 10K -- 25 seconds faster than any other American -- sits behind the PRs of eight different Ethiopians, with seven of those Ethiopian ladies having run those times within the past 10 years.

As someone suggested, the role of doping plays some role here -- past, present and future -- but as it's impossible to quantify, there's probably no reason to spend time with it.

Short version: This article offers nothing now and, while there's no way to know for sure when and if a < 2:00:00 marathon will happen, there is not one word in the RW piece that any fairly ambitious person on this board couldn't have written.

Not that I think it's likely in the next few years, but a pure marathoner who can still manage under 26:40 for 10k is 'all' that's required based on 4.5 times 10k (which many marathoners have done and beat on a regular basis).

young aspiring runner wrote:

well., wrote:

When did they think the sub-4 mile was impossible? Gunder Hägg ran 4,01 in the 1940s.

Google, learn how to use it.

http://www.nomeatathlete.com/4-minute-mile-certainty/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four-minute_milehttp://impossiblehq.com/impossible-case-study-sir-roger-bannister

The middle article has no reference to it being considered impossible and the other two don't cite any sources, making them pretty useless.

So, when did they think that? Please use google if it makes you happy.

Conversion. wrote:but a pure marathoner who can still manage under 26:40 for 10k is 'all' that's required based on 4.5 times 10k (which many marathoners have done and beat on a regular basis).

This assumption (4.5 times 10k) is way off and is not supported by the history. To take two of the best runners of the past decade who actually had good 10k times as a basis- Tergat and Geb, they both turned in marathon bests of 4.72 and 4.70x their best 10ks.

Makau, Kipsang, and Kimetto never bothered trying to get great 10's they went right up to the marathon.

But you don't actually know any of that is true, you just believe it because the calculator told you. Many believe Bekele's 5,000m record is much stronger than the 10,000m. VDOT is still a made-up approximation that is actually pretty far off when it comes to world-class times.

No, evidently unlike you, I know what the VDOT actually represents, and something of the physiological basis from which Daniels was making his extrapolations. It is you that have evidently made up your mind as you state something contrary to what Bekele's PB data shows. The bottomline, it is an excellent tool, in the hands of those who know how to use it, whether you want to do so or not.

HardLoper wrote:

Observer of marathoning wrote:

The statistical extrapolation of the VDOT is as sound as any evaluation method. It indicates 2:02:57 potential based on Wanjiru's 10000m PB, and 2:01:09 potential based on Bekele's 10000m PB, and

Thus, Wanjiru was not yet fully developed over the marathon distance to his aerobic potential. And Bekele was not running the marathon when he had that incredible fitness of the 2004-2005 era. Of note, Bekele's 5000m PB matches up perfectly with his 10000m PB according to the VDOT, thus he was fully developed aerobically over the 10000m based on VDOT evaluation:

But you don't actually know any of that is true, you just believe it because the calculator told you. Many believe Bekele's 5,000m record is much stronger than the 10,000m. VDOT is still a made-up approximation that is actually pretty far off when it comes to world-class times.

Observer of marathoning wrote:

No, evidently unlike you, I know what the VDOT actually represents, and something of the physiological basis from which Daniels was making his extrapolations. It is you that have evidently made up your mind as you state something contrary to what Bekele's PB data shows.

The bottomline, it is an excellent tool, in the hands of those who know how to use it, whether you want to do so or not.

A tool for what? What has it told you about Bekele or Wanjiru that you couldn't figure out by common sense? I take it Bekele should have been able to run a 3:20 for 1500m in order to have the potential to run the times he did? What does it say Galen Rupp's max potential is for 10,000 based on his 12:58 5,000? 27:01?

It is nothing more than a formula based on past observations, most likely the track world records in the 1970's, something anybody can do with a spreadsheet and a few hours of free time. But it does NOT have precision down to the second or ability to predict one's potential like you think it does.

Observer of marathoning wrote:The VDOT says the 2:00:00 marathon is 12:30 5000m and 26:04 10000m fitness.

more maths-type

9.60

19.20

42.90

99.80

128.77

204.13

279.73

433.86

748.00

1552.57

56'50

2"00'13

sports fan wrote:

So what year will a sub-2 marathon happen? According to the article in about 2075.

That's convenient. How many people who read or contributed to this piece of shit of an article, just one more bobbing turd in a long line of them published by this same magazine, will actually be alive in 61 years?

In 2068, someone who stands 8' 9 1/2" tall will hit a baseball 987 feet during a major-league using a novel one-handed swing and a bat made from an as-yet undiscovered type of wood derived from a tree that grows only on one remote South Pacific island. Here's why...

MarathonMind wrote:

Conversion. wrote:but a pure marathoner who can still manage under 26:40 for 10k is 'all' that's required based on 4.5 times 10k (which many marathoners have done and beat on a regular basis).

This assumption (4.5 times 10k) is way off and is not supported by the history. To take two of the best runners of the past decade who actually had good 10k times as a basis- Tergat and Geb, they both turned in marathon bests of 4.72 and 4.70x their best 10ks.

Makau, Kipsang, and Kimetto never bothered trying to get great 10's they went right up to the marathon.

Sure but they were both 5k/10k specialists not pure marathoners. What we are looking for is the male Paula Radcliff (30 min 10k/ 2:15 marathon) who can run a 26:30 10k. Who knows if that person can exist.

I must admit I sort of wonder about the temps. Most of those kenyans and ethopians complain when the temps drop below 50.

the 201 marathon is on right now.

you need all the best marathoners in berlin and with the beas runners drafting off a group of bigish 59 minute half marathon guys to half, then have a couple of sacrifial lambs take it to 30km and if who ever is left cooperate and switch the leads.

you might be talking about a 500m improvement off the current wr just drafting like a proper tour de france guy. then if someone is better by 200m on the day (compared to the current WR) you have a 700 m improvement, close to - 2 minutes.

that gives 201 low to 200 high.

of course this scenario is not likely, so we're talking 202 mid in the next couple of years probably.

'Advances in nutrition and technology will help along with new innovation in training methods that are still unknown'

I agree with training methods but American and European runners are more advanced in terms of nutrition and technology but its the Kenyans who are beating them by a mile

There was some physiologist who was harping on the other day about how nobody has the physiological capabilities to do it. If you had him measure Paula there would be no way he would have predicted 2:15

I think it could be done in about 20-30 years but it might stall like the 5/10,000m

I reckon someone with the ability of Bekele at his peak who could last the distance could run under 2:02. You would not have thought the current world record holder could run so fast so you never know

Sylvia Browne wrote:

In 2068, someone who stands 8' 9 1/2" tall will hit a baseball 987 feet during a major-league using a novel one-handed swing and a bat made from an as-yet undiscovered type of wood derived from a tree that grows only on one remote South Pacific island. Here's why...

lol

If the goal is a sub 2 hour marathon, why not create a specific 1k track and special marathon spikes. Run it like a track 10k with capable pacers.

KMB wrote:

While the article serves as a decent platform for exploring the statistical details inolved, it makes no unusual or even contestable claims...

Thanks for summarizing the article, though I'm sorry you didn't like it. For what it's worth, I'm not sure why you expected it to make "unusual" or "contestable" claims. It's just intended to be a look the factors that have contributed to the sharp drop in marathon times over the past 15 years, along with some speculation about what that might mean for the future. Most people who follow the sport closely would have come up with a similar list of factors off the top of their heads; but there are lots of people who don't follow the sport closely who might nonetheless be interested in having these factors explained. Even for those who do follow the sport, I hope there are some interesting insights from the data analysis, e.g. about the surprisingly cold optimal temperature for elite marathoners, or the relative change in heat dissipation versus generation as marathoners have gotten smaller.

Someone else commented about the "convenient" choice of 2075 for my prediction. Obviously I don't have a crystal ball, and despite what KMB seems to think I'm not just drawing a straight line on a graph of marathon records and assuming that the rate of improvement will continue. The prediction of 2075 is nothing more than my gut feeling after writing the article -- though it was written before Kimetto's record!

Sub-2hr may be the eventual goal of Dr. Rosa's and Canova's project in China, as the physical science improves.