Canova: "By two more marathons, [Bekele] will be under 2:03"

agip wrote:

6th fastest debut in the years 2012-2014. Is that so great?

Yes it is especially when four of them come from Dubai, which is faster than European courses because of lack of water in the air (like anti-altitude) and the other was a losing effort at Berlin by a guy who went on to smash the world record.

Apple Guy wrote:

Oh I get it, everything before 2012 is irrelevant now. Kimetto only has the 2012 to 2014 record. I am done with you.

And yes, if you followed the marathon you would know that Paris is not as fast as Berlin.

pre 2012 isn't exactly irrelevant, but if you haven't seen the quickening in marathon times recently then you aren;t paying attention.

Clearly, a 2:05 debut is good. But in the context of all the OTHER 2:04-2:05 debuts over the past 2/3 years...a 2:05 debut doesn't make you the best marathoner on the planet.

sure berlin is faster than Paris. My point is that Bekele ran a just slightly better than average winning time in Paris. It's good. It's even great. But it's not extraordinary.

agip wrote:

I'm not trolling - I honestly think he is not the same guy as the who you all really want him to be. Take off your rose colored glasses.

I have no idea who the GOAT is - but I do know that the 2014 version of Bekele has not shown anything to make him deserve that title.

I'm discounting him because he hasn't done anything spectacular for years and years and years.

if an ethiopian you have never heard of ran 2:05 at paris would you immediately label him the greatest marathoner on the planet? Of course not. For some reason you see the bekele name and think of his glory years and not the older, post-injury bekele.

No one has rose colored glasses on here. You just don't know what you are talking about. If that unheard of Ethiopian had also held the 5k and 10k world records and multiple gold medals, then yes I would immediately label him the greatest of all time. The GOAT. Don't try to move the goalposts to "greatest marathoner of all time". We are talking about the GOAT. You are wrong. Admit it.

nows the time wrote:

agip wrote:

6th fastest debut in the years 2012-2014. Is that so great?

If the years 2012-2014 are the strongest years in marathon history, then that is AGAINST the point that you are trying to make. Are you that stupid? You are helping your opponent.

I don't get your argument. the resolution on the table is something like 'bekele is the best marathoner on the planet' based on his debut and his past.

but if he ran the 6th best debut in the last couple of years, I don't see how that makes him the best.

What am I missing here?

Who knows what he really said? They edited his reply, obviously, since anyone who has seen him write here knows he has peculiar grammar (I love his posts, don't get me wrong). Who knows what they edited and what he really said?

Crazedseepies wrote:

I've been pumped about Bekele and his advance into the marathon. Especially because he's still only 32 (Kimetto is 30, guys).

It's been linked to in a couple threads, but in

http://www.runnersworld.com/race-training/creating-the-ideal-marathoner

Canova says "By two more marathons, he will be under 2:03. In his third, he will race for the world record."

It's the thinking I've had about this. Step by step, he'll get there. Debut, Chicago, WR. Maybe a race or two in between Chicago and the WR, but he'll do it.

You're being obstinate and dense agip. I hope he sets the record this next year. And then you can and your ilk never post about the topic again. It's not a case of bias. It's a rational assumption if you go back through his career and get off the Kipsang/Kimetto bandwagon. Canova thinks so. The very fact that these records are falling by no-names consistently should be evidence enough that KB can do it.

we will see, we will see.

I think he runs another 2:05 in Chicago. He will be first or second.

What was I wrong about exactly? we're giving opinions here, not facts.

I'm not moving any goalposts - I'm saying he set world records and won golds many years ago - not recently. the records and medals are interesting but they don't prove much.

agip wrote:

I don't get your argument. the resolution on the table is something like 'bekele is the best marathoner on the planet' based on his debut and his past.

but if he ran the 6th best debut in the last couple of years, I don't see how that makes him the best.

What am I missing here?

Why do you keep pointing out the last two years? It wasn't the 6th fastest in the last couple of years. It was of ALLTIME. You are just being stupid.

stinky pinky wrote:

You're being obstinate and dense agip. I hope he sets the record this next year. And then you can and your ilk never post about the topic again. It's not a case of bias. It's a rational assumption if you go back through his career and get off the Kipsang/Kimetto bandwagon. Canova thinks so. The very fact that these records are falling by no-names consistently should be evidence enough that KB can do it.

I hope you are right - it would be a fantastic story if bekele recovers his prior form. It is a rare thing to do and it would be great to see.

agip wrote:

we will see, we will see.

I think he runs another 2:05 in Chicago. He will be first or second.

What was I wrong about exactly? we're giving opinions here, not facts.

I'm not moving any goalposts - I'm saying he set world records and won golds many years ago - not recently. the records and medals are interesting but they don't prove much.

You are wrong about saying that his records, golds, and 2:05 debut don't prove much. Alltogether , they prove that he is the GOAT. Yes, you are trying to move goalposts. Just admit you are wrong.

I will bump this thread after the race - can't wait to see how he does.

agip wrote:

I will bump this thread after the race - can't wait to see how he does.

And we'll bump it too once the record falls, whenever that might be. When the GOAT has all three records at once.

agip wrote:

I will bump this thread after the race - can't wait to see how he does.

It'll be interesting to watch, for sure. I'm pretty excited. I have him going 2:03:34 or so.

Crazedseepies wrote:

It'll be interesting to watch, for sure. I'm pretty excited. I have him going 2:03:34 or so.

With Kipchoge in the race, do you think Bekele will make it a slower race so he can use surges? Or will he push it hard from the beginning?

agip wrote:

Here is the list of debut marathons - bekele is 6th. hey, that's pretty good. But he isn't the GOAT. he is just another east african.

(I'm someone will say Boston was windy, Dubai was short, kimetto is the wr holder, etc. that still leaves a few other 2:05s)

Bekele = great

Bekele is not the GOAT anymore. Or at least he hasn't shown any goatness for many years.

Normally a fan agip, but you're way outta line here.

What he has done in recent years doesn't negate what he did before. All his unreachable WRs, all his titles, everything he did doesn't mean ANYTHING to you?

If we're talking strictly marathon, OF COURSE he isn't the GOAT.

But if we're talking everything 3k up, it has to be Bekele. If Geb is your man, what if Bekele goes 2:03:58 or faster in Chicago?

Point is, Bekele IS the GOAT even if he doesn't excel in the marathon, WHICH HAS YET TO BE SEEN. Yet it play out. Kimetto Ran sub-2:07 a few times. He ran sub-2:05 a few times. Then he ran sub-2:03. If it weren't for his WR he. too, would be 'just another east african'.

This thread is about Canova predicting results. Not what Bekele has done in the marathon so far. Just chill. Post again in two years.

well I think the point of the thread has diverged and I was a but mushy.

there are two ideas on the table:

1) Is bekele the goat distance runner?

2) is bekele currently the best marathoner on the planet... or closely related - Will Bekele set the WR in the marathon.

I did not make this distinction in some of my posts.

I'll say that Bekele probably is the greatest distance runner of all time.

Where I disagree is that right now he is either a) the greatest marathoner on the planet or b) shown anything at all at his current age and with his recent race results that suggests he will set a WR in the marathon. Right now, based on his recent performances, he is one of a around 20-30 east africans, and does not stand out.

odok wrote:

With Kipchoge in the race, do you think Bekele will make it a slower race so he can use surges? Or will he push it hard from the beginning?

I like to believe Kenenisa Bekele would not be satisfied with just a victory. He's used to dominating. He's used to holding world records, and strong ones. And maybe his rivalry with Haile is an extra incentive to really go for the world record.

And just to add a few nails to that coffin: his time in Paris is probably equivalent to a low 2:04 in Berlin, like Dennis Kimetto did (but holding back, it must be said). The only one who got close to his time in Paris is Stanley Biwott with 2:05:12. He was second to Wilson Kipsang in London this year, leaving in the dust an all-star field. Kenenisa is at that level: with the bests.

agip wrote:

well I think the point of the thread has diverged and I was a but mushy.

there are two ideas on the table:

1) Is bekele the goat distance runner?

2) is bekele currently the best marathoner on the planet... or closely related - Will Bekele set the WR in the marathon.

I did not make this distinction in some of my posts.

I'll say that Bekele probably is the greatest distance runner of all time.

Where I disagree is that right now he is either a) the greatest marathoner on the planet or b) shown anything at all at his current age and with his recent race results that suggests he will set a WR in the marathon. Right now, based on his recent performances, he is one of a around 20-30 east africans, and does not stand out.

Stop repeating that nonsense. If he is the 6th fastest debutant, then of course he stands out. 6 is not close to 20 or 30. And he won. And he still has speed. All of those things make him stand out.

This isn't Tyson coming out of retirement fat and desperate for appearance $$$. This is Bekele still VERY VERY FIT.