might be wejo wrote:
My gut says no; 2:22-flat was a huge breakthrough for her given that her previous PR was 2:25:40. To think that she can make another 150 second jump just six months seems a bit wishful.
The fact that she is talking about the record likely means she is in phenomenal shape, so if anything her race should be exciting.
She's been sandbagged every one of her prior marathon performances just to make her record-breaking run in Berlin even more dramatic.
290 wrote:
She will be the hottest elite female runner in the race
Anna would like to have a word with you:
http://static.scc-events.com/files/media/news/a/800/6899/5418.jpgSince her nemesis Kara Goucher won't be the in the race, I don't think she'll be running with much hate. 2:25ish.
I think she'll PR, maybe 2:20, but don't see her going faster than than.
Since Shalane says that she is going only run for time, and 2:19 to be specific... aren't all the other racers just going to sit on her for the first 2/3 of the race like she is a pacer? They she will be working the numbers to make sure her pace is consistent and right on. Isn't she the ideal pacer? I just think that would make it even harder on Shalane with the entire lead pack sitting on you for an hour and a half... Maybe she shouldn't have announced her plan. She still could have done the same race, but another racer may have taken some of the pacing duties.
I know that she is not running for place and that she will have male pacers, but it would be distracting to have all of the other lead women leaching off your work.
LennyZ wrote:
Since Shalane says that she is going only run for time, and 2:19 to be specific... aren't all the other racers just going to sit on her for the first 2/3 of the race like she is a pacer? They she will be working the numbers to make sure her pace is consistent and right on. Isn't she the ideal pacer? I just think that would make it even harder on Shalane with the entire lead pack sitting on you for an hour and a half... Maybe she shouldn't have announced her plan. She still could have done the same race, but another racer may have taken some of the pacing duties.
I know that she is not running for place and that she will have male pacers, but it would be distracting to have all of the other lead women leaching off your work.
I do not remember the Berlin start system.
Do the elite women have their own start time or is it one gun for all the elites?
thanks
Her form in Boston was still suited to a track race. It's poor form for 26.2 miles. If she doesn't fix that, her legs will not be fresh for the last 10K.
I think she doesn't go under 2:20, but she will set a PR.
Also, the reason these races are not well followed is not because the focus is on time, or whatever. It's because the prize money is barely worth the turn of a head. $150,000? I don't even know if it's that. The races won't even advertise it. Nor will they advertise how much they pay the runners just to show up. It's pathetic.
Make the top prize 1 million dollars. Make second place 250,000. Third, maybe 100 or something. Ignore the appearance fees and make them race because if they don't they get nothing. That's what makes the race exciting and that's what could help kill off the fixed or thrown races (Mutai, Farah wins).
And ... that's what will get people to pay attention. $150,000 is chump change. Yes I know, it's a lot of money to people fresh out of college, etc... But when you hear about athletes signing million dollar deals and endorsements worth millions, and then you see African runners winning races while the organizers applaud a 100,000 figure payday, I mean it looks pathetic in comparison.
shalane is an excellent athlete and and excellent prepper, and looking at her 2:22 in Boston is a bit misleading. take it for what it is, but before (I think in the anderson cooper interview, for example) and after Boston she was clear that her best run would be a 2:22 and that she and her coach thought that would win on the Boston course. she hit the paces she was training for and had pretty much memorized the streets to do it.
this is similar to what happened before the OT. looking back at when she was training with goucher, in interviews they thought that something like a 2:26 would get you on the team, and that's pretty close to what they seemed to pace for.
Berlin her goal is very simple, though very tough, yet every other big time race she seems to train through a specific metric then goes on to meet it.
i think it will be close so i'm going to go as a fan and say that she nails in. i'll be bold and specific. i'll say she's on pace up to when the pacers leave her (maybe 20/21), that Tadese and Tsegaye sit on that for a while then push. maybe they go back and forth a little bit but shalane never loses mental contact and pulls them back in with a couple miles to go. She's still on track to get the AR seeing that she can break them with a mile and a half to go she hammers and nails it in...lets say 2:19:08
