Doo wrote:
I would be shocked if any of the three are broken.
Yes but the point is when are is there legitimate potential for THREE American male distance records in one meet, on US soil?
I'm not trying to hype it up like any will probably happen. For the record I would give maybe 35% chance of the 10K going down, 25% for the 800 and 15% for the 5K. I don't think that's too generous.
I'd put the odds of an 800m record at 5-10%, the odds of a 5000m record at 1-2%, and the odds of a 10000m record at 20%. I think you guys are being overly generous.
Star wrote:
You don't think Centro has a shot at the mile AR?
His 1500m PR from two years ago is equivalent to 3:48.8 and he looked good in his last race.
Kiprop is ready to run 3:46, so he will have someone to go after.
That would be the least likely but it isn't completely out of the question I suppose. Didn't he have a goal of like sub-3:30 this year or something
Zero WILL BE set.
I didn't see the other posts when I wrote that but it looks like other estimates were in the same ballpark.
But on the flip side the chances of at least one of them going down isn't too slim. I just think an American record on home soil would be a big deal. I don't know the last time that's happened on the track other than Solinsky's 10K.
10,000m - 10% chance
5000m - 0% chance
800m - 5% chance
Well, most of you guys must be shocked so far. We're at least one for three!!!!!!!
I don't think the mile has any chance. I'll leave the 800 to the wind. At least we have one under out belt!
dkny64 wrote:
In the know on Haney wrote:Do you understand the term independent? It means that one event has no impact on the other events. The weather is certainly a factor, but it has nothing to do with the term independent from a mathematical standpoint.
It's been a while, but my understanding of the mathematical term "independent" in this context is that if the variables A, B and C are independent, then P(A and B and C) = P(A) x P(B)x P(C). Let's start from our friend Rocket's estimates:
800- 30%
5000- 10%
10,000 - 25%
If these three events are independent, then the probability of all three happening should be .3 x .1 x .25 = .0075 [less than 1%]
Now we look at the weather component of our estimated probabilities. Simple scenario: these records can only be set under favorable weather conditions, the weather conditions for all three events will be the same, and the chance of favorable weather conditions is 50%.
Now the chance of all three happening is .5 [of favorable weather conditions] x .6 x .2 x .5 = .03 [aka 3%]. [all the probabilities of the record breaking outcome are doubled under the favorable conditions since they are 0 under the unfavorable conditions.]
Seems to me that we can't call these probabilities independent.
Your math was correct, but so was mine. I was calculating P(A or B or C) and you were calculating P(A and B and C), which is of course far more unlikely.
Captain Super Duper Obvious wrote:
Zero WILL BE set.
Obviously.
Cal_Poly_Dad wrote:
No chance, No chance, and No chance.....
You must feel stupid
Crazedseepies wrote:
I don't think the mile has any chance. I'll leave the 800 to the wind. At least we have one under out belt!
To me, the issue with the mile is that the field is so deep that no one may want to push it and set themselves up to be caught.
But they are clearly ready to run 3:45 up front.
Centro will not be one to push it but he can keep up.
The past couple years he has had health issues at this meet.
He has never come here ready and with a 3:35 under his belt like this year.
No chance?
We just saw people write that about Rupp.
I think Centro will break Webb's record if the pace is there up front.
Maybe he will even win the race.
Star wrote:
Kiprop has not really run a bunch of one mile races.
He runs one or tow a year - Pre and Oslo.
And he doesn't put up a lot of fast 1500m times.
He mostly races to win and will have a fast time here or there.
He has 3:44 ability. He just hasn't gone for it.
And I don't expect them to go for it this weekend.
But the ability is there and I think Centro CAN run 3:46.
WILL he, though?
If Centro breaks 3:50 at this meet it would be fantastic. If he ever runs 3:45 it will prove a lot of greats from the past never reached their full potential - and that modern tracks really are a lot better than what athletes pit up with back in the day.