jjjjjjjjj wrote:
I think that there will be at least two high profile Euro 10k's this summer, where conditions and his shape will be favorable for an American record. I doubt it here, since he was not sharp for that 13:19, so of course he was running in hot weather.
I assume you're not talking about Hengelo as that is next week. When in the last 15 years has there ever been two high profile Euro 10,000's post Hengelo? In 2010, there were none (no 10,000 at Brussels).
A few months ago during early indoors I would say yes, but his last 2 indoor races and his recent outdoor performance I would say no. For a 10k, the temp, wind and pollen will make a big difference, if all of those things are in his favor, perhaps getting under 27 is possible, but it is looking more like 27 teens. Also, with out the right incentives (money), I am not sure this is going to be a fast race and I doubt Rupp will make it a fast race.
trackcoach wrote:
A few months ago during early indoors I would say yes, but his last 2 indoor races and his recent outdoor performance I would say no. For a 10k, the temp, wind and pollen will make a big difference, if all of those things are in his favor, perhaps getting under 27 is possible, but it is looking more like 27 teens. Also, with out the right incentives (money), I am not sure this is going to be a fast race and I doubt Rupp will make it a fast race.
I think Rupp is a much stronger runner than in 2010. In 2010, and earlier in the season in 2010, he came out and ran 27:10 after leading from around 6K until 800 to go. He rigged up to 27:10 because people had been sitting on him and blew by with relatively fresh legs at that point. I believe that if he would have been sitting on someone in that race, or traded pace, or just not had anyone left to go around him he would have at least run 27:05 that day.
There is no way in 2010 he could have run 13:01 and 8:07 followed by 5 x mile, ending in 4:01. Just no way. He is a MUCH stronger and better runner now. That doesn't guarantee that he will blast out sub 27:00 on Friday, because who knows how this race will unfold and what the weather will end up being like.
But if conditions and race set up anything like cardinal in 2010 or PRE in 2011 for Farah, sub 27:00 is on the table at a minimum.
Also, how do we know there are not incentives in this race? I'd wager there are.
The signs of spring in Oregon; warmer temps, sunshine, pollen levels elevated, Rupp DNF or DNS @ Pre Meet after all the hype
y must u cuss?
trackcoach wrote:
A few months ago during early indoors I would say yes, but his last 2 indoor races and his recent outdoor performance I would say no. For a 10k, the temp, wind and pollen will make a big difference, if all of those things are in his favor, perhaps getting under 27 is possible, but it is looking more like 27 teens. Also, with out the right incentives (money), I am not sure this is going to be a fast race and I doubt Rupp will make it a fast race.
I agree with everything except the incentives part. He has all of the incentives to run great at PRE.
runrun123 wrote:
He has all of the incentives to run great at PRE.
Last shot for Rupp at a good 10k time.
He's gonna do it
I lean toward jjjj and dkny et al and say if everthing is perfect then 27:05 or so. I'd love to see him do it but I'm afraid this may not be the time. Later in the year, a couple good races under his belt, who knows?
I belive those of you saying he's got a monster base, fitness is there with a little tune-up maybe necessary.
I also believe those saying there aren't a whole lot of chances this year and maybe not many 26:40 efforts in him.
BTW, all this about the great Noon. Noon ain't bad but let'ds face it: this time of year Don is faster.
What makes you say that?
Dennis Reynolds 2.0 wrote:
well., wrote:In that case, Rupp should try to follow Noon.
Noon is the best g*d damn runner on the planet.
Noon here. Judging by my recent workouts, sub-27:00 is in the cards, depending on pollen count. Rupp should stick to my butt if he wants to dip under the magic number
Rupp is certainly a better, more confident runner than 3-4 years ago. If conditions are right and a pacer can take them through at least 6000, he'll take over if he needs to and get it done. If any of the others decide they want a PB and push the pace and he actually has someone to race, then I'd say as fast as 26:36-42 is possible. If not, 26:42-50. If he doesn't beat his record, I think he'll be very close.
Not sure why so many people aren't confident. When he or Salazar announces a time goal, he usually gets it. Oxy didn't mean much, it was 90 freakin' degrees! How did you all do last time you raced in 90 degree weather? Running twice the distance at that pace in 70s weather should feel pretty easy for him until the last mile.
Fastnbulbous wrote:
When he or Salazar announces a time goal, he usually gets it.
Except when he DNFs or DNSs.
Fastnbulbous wrote:
Oxy didn't mean much, it was 90 freakin' degrees!
That is a lie. Where do you even get this crap?
Temperatures in LA reached a record high of 102 degrees that day. Announcers said the weather was still over 91 degrees when I had started watching the stream after 7 PM. While I'm sure it cooled off more by the 5K, it was still pretty damn not.
Deer Noon - Thanks for posting. Its always great to hear from an elite like yourself. Best of luck Friday.
the indoor results and the fact that al-sal was probably pointing to this race as the first serious race of the season, the last 5k result could mean that he was still training hard while his competition was much sharper.
i'm going to figure that rupp can pull off a B+ effort which may be good enough to get close but not quite his previous AR.
there was a period where rupp was capable of great times but it took a year or two to lay it down in a race, he was falling down or the races were slow or something.
for these past few years, if he can bring his game as similar to those humongous training results we've been hearing about, rupp can go 13:20 plus 13:15 or close to.
on the other hand, if you dont have it on the day, a 10k sucks. it is quite different to suck for 3 minutes that 30 minutes in a race.
if rupp hits the 10k AR, that is an A Rupp, capable of standing the podium premium quality.
I agree with whoever was talking about his workouts this year compared to 2011(?) when he set his records. He's much better runner now.
I'm not confident in his for since we haven't seen him race. If there's a 10.000 he focuses on later in the summer, I think he has the potential for 26:3x.
*not confident in his fitness
Since his only recent race was a sit-and-kick in difficult weather
Right now I'd say 13:23-4, 13:17.
26:40
I can say this the weather is perfect but there is crap flying in the air. Saw a few people seriously suffering alllergies. Its jsut warm and almost no wind. Hope the pace goes. I think hes ready for a BOOM!