Nope.
Nope.
I want to say Mo won't match Bekele, but then I have to step away from the question. They're totally different races -- different courses, days, and conditions. Mo could run 2:04 or 2:06 and I still wouldn't know if it was a better or worse result.
No. But Salazar will be pissed and have Bekele's time dq'd
No
I think no, but Mo does have a chance if:
he gets his own dream team of pacers, they go out at 2:06 pace and everyone else goes at 2:02 pace. Then they all die an Mo sweeps them up with his pace team.
But I don't see that happening - I think Mo will run 2:07.
As impressive as Bekele's debut was (I watched the live stream), and as much as I think Mo probably can't match Bekele's time in a real race (not a time trial), I don't want to underestimate Salazar and Mo.
It would be just like the Salazar-Mo combo to have Mo come out and win the whole thing in sub-2:04. I expect Mo to get chewed up, but if he has some chemical assistance (as many believe), he may run "too fast."
Nope. Don't think he will. Anything south of 2:05 is still a very solid time.
The biggest issue is that London is a race. I know Haile is pacing, and it is being talked about as a record attempt, but this has been the case other times and we haven't gotten even pace to the end. Usually somewhere in there someone decides to make it a race and starts surging and throwing in moves. It works for breaking up packs, but doesn't yield the optimum time.
To me anything under 2:05 is a phenomenal debut, 2:05:xx is good, 2:06 is passable, and anything worse is weak unless the race is absolutely absurd and that ends up being a top 3 finish.
Honestly, I'm more interested in Farah's placing. Top 3 is great, top 5 is solid, and anything worse is medicore for a runner of Farah's caliber.
agip wrote:
No - Mo is a mid d guy with a huge kick - not a marathoner.
Mid-d guys don't dominate the 5 and 10, but lose (yes, he was 2nd place in that fast race) in fast 1500s.
He is a long distance runner with a great kick. The 'thon is a distance race, but it is a little trickier than 5k-hm due to fueling concerns. It isn't for everyone, even great LD guys sometimes.
Bring Back the 880 wrote:
agip wrote:No - Mo is a mid d guy with a huge kick - not a marathoner.
Mid-d guys don't dominate the 5 and 10, but lose (yes, he was 2nd place in that fast race) in fast 1500s.
He is a long distance runner with a great kick. The 'thon is a distance race, but it is a little trickier than 5k-hm due to fueling concerns. It isn't for everyone, even great LD guys sometimes.
well sort of. that wasn't a normal loss.
Mo lost to one of the greatest 1500 meter runners of all time in one of the fastest 1500 races in 10 years, and Mo hadn't run a fast 1500 in a long time, if ever. And he ran 3:28.
LD runners don't run 3:28 like that. Mo is a MD runner witha a huge kick and a brilliant strategic mind.
Strategy matters less when you're the best runner in a race. Maybe Mo is just one of those with a lot of range that can be a good miler and 10k guy.
The fact that he will be remembered for his LD titles and will never set a 1500 or Mile WR is enough to prove he is primarily LD.
As an aside, could you imagine how some people on this board would react if the situation were reversed and Salazar set up a payday for win / time trial for Farah (and rode along on a moped) while Bekele raced Mutai? I am not criticizing Bekele. I am just noting that the NOP haters would have had a field day with that and called it Farah-certified.
LM wrote:
Nope. Don't think he will. Anything south of 2:05 is still a very solid time.
The biggest issue is that London is a race. I know Haile is pacing, and it is being talked about as a record attempt, but this has been the case other times and we haven't gotten even pace to the end. Usually somewhere in there someone decides to make it a race and starts surging and throwing in moves. It works for breaking up packs, but doesn't yield the optimum time.
To me anything under 2:05 is a phenomenal debut, 2:05:xx is good, 2:06 is passable, and anything worse is weak unless the race is absolutely absurd and that ends up being a top 3 finish.
Honestly, I'm more interested in Farah's placing. Top 3 is great, top 5 is solid, and anything worse is medicore for a runner of Farah's caliber.
Donald Duck wrote:
As impressive as Bekele's debut was (I watched the live stream), and as much as I think Mo probably can't match Bekele's time in a real race (not a time trial), I don't want to underestimate Salazar and Mo.
It would be just like the Salazar-Mo combo to have Mo come out and win the whole thing in sub-2:04. I expect Mo to get chewed up, but if he has some chemical assistance (as many believe), he may run "too fast."
This point [minus the chemical assistance part, about which I'm agnostic] has been rattling around in the back of my mind ever since I posted earlier in this thread. I don't really think Mo can go sub 2:05 let alone sub 2:04 and yet...how many people thought Mo was destined to sweep the 5&10 in London and Moscow when he first announced he was throwing in his lot with Salazar? I certainly didn't but here we are.
Anyway, what an interesting race. Fantasy result - Geb goes the distance, recaptures his lost youth, wins in 2:02:59 and is referred to henceforth on this board as the "Chris Solinsky of marathoning."
dkny64 wrote:
[quote]Donald Duck wrote:
Anyway, what an interesting race. Fantasy result - Geb goes the distance, recaptures his lost youth, wins in 2:02:59 and is referred to henceforth on this board as the "Chris Solinsky of marathoning."
Haile Gebrselassie is the "Haile Gebrselassie of Marathoning"
dkny64 wrote:
Donald Duck wrote:As impressive as Bekele's debut was (I watched the live stream), and as much as I think Mo probably can't match Bekele's time in a real race (not a time trial), I don't want to underestimate Salazar and Mo.
It would be just like the Salazar-Mo combo to have Mo come out and win the whole thing in sub-2:04. I expect Mo to get chewed up, but if he has some chemical assistance (as many believe), he may run "too fast."
This point [minus the chemical assistance part, about which I'm agnostic] has been rattling around in the back of my mind ever since I posted earlier in this thread. I don't really think Mo can go sub 2:05 let alone sub 2:04 and yet...how many people thought Mo was destined to sweep the 5&10 in London and Moscow when he first announced he was throwing in his lot with Salazar? I certainly didn't but here we are.
Anyway, what an interesting race. Fantasy result - Geb goes the distance, recaptures his lost youth, wins in 2:02:59 and is referred to henceforth on this board as the "Chris Solinsky of marathoning."
That would be pretty much the most awesome thing ever.
This is silly wrote:
As an aside, could you imagine how some people on this board would react if the situation were reversed and Salazar set up a payday for win / time trial for Farah (and rode along on a moped) while Bekele raced Mutai?
I am not criticizing Bekele. I am just noting that the NOP haters would have had a field day with that and called it Farah-certified.
LM wrote:Nope. Don't think he will. Anything south of 2:05 is still a very solid time.
The biggest issue is that London is a race. I know Haile is pacing, and it is being talked about as a record attempt, but this has been the case other times and we haven't gotten even pace to the end. Usually somewhere in there someone decides to make it a race and starts surging and throwing in moves. It works for breaking up packs, but doesn't yield the optimum time.
To me anything under 2:05 is a phenomenal debut, 2:05:xx is good, 2:06 is passable, and anything worse is weak unless the race is absolutely absurd and that ends up being a top 3 finish.
Honestly, I'm more interested in Farah's placing. Top 3 is great, top 5 is solid, and anything worse is medicore for a runner of Farah's caliber.
Yea, the NOP hating stuff is lame. Especially since this board is so inundated with it.
I wouldn't be surprised if Mo could be pulled along to a faster time than Kenny B just posted (and possibly not even win in so doing), but doubt he could run that fast all by himself, and really doubt he could beat Kenny B head to head.
BobbyM wrote:
No.
Farah is a fraud of a champion winning championships with a kick against 2nd tier competition. Bekele is the real deal.
Are you forgetting mo vs kenny at the 2012 10k olympics?
Bring Back the 880 wrote:
The fact that he will be remembered for his LD titles and will never set a 1500 or Mile WR is enough to prove he is primarily LD.
That makes no sense. His best time is the 1500m. He has never run fast times in the distance events.
You say he will never set a mile WR, but he will also never set a 5k/10k world record. He will be remembered for being a 1500m runner who competed against weak 5k/10k competition (no, that's not an insult).
I am pretty sure Farah will be remembered for the Olympics more than running a fast 1500 in Monaco. I would like to see him PR in the 5 and 10 but I think he knows the records are out of reach. He is not racing Bekele, Haile or Tergat in their primes but its not like he is racing the Footlocker HS field either. Jeilan, Tanui, Masai, Rupp, the Bekele brothers (aged), Gebremeskel, gebrehiwot, GG, Koech and others are quite good. These are guys who run 26:40s and 12:40s. Just because the races were not super fast does not mean the field was poor. Farah is not the caliber Bekele, HG, Tergat or Komen in their primes but no one says he is.
bring back the 440 wrote:
Bring Back the 880 wrote:The fact that he will be remembered for his LD titles and will never set a 1500 or Mile WR is enough to prove he is primarily LD.
That makes no sense. His best time is the 1500m. He has never run fast times in the distance events.
You say he will never set a mile WR, but he will also never set a 5k/10k world record. He will be remembered for being a 1500m runner who competed against weak 5k/10k competition (no, that's not an insult).
No. KB was very impressive yesterday and I don't think Farah will better his performance. It has heaped more pressure onto Farah to deliver and his lack of fast distance races may further dent his confidence. The London field is a lot stronger so Mo will not have everything his own way like KB did.
I would be very pleased to watch him prove me wrong.
I think there is a decent chance of it happening. If what Salazar said about Mo's fitness is true you cannot count him out. I think Mo will be up in the lead mix until 40k, then drop off some to run mid 2:05