ben true 7:36.5 3000 = what for 5000?

RunWild wrote:

So what is 7:20 equal to?

I'd say, out of the distance events, this is the most impressive mark. Everyone tried for it and missed by some ways.

Dunno what it would equate in a 5, but I'd think that if Komen had ran a 5 instead of a 3 that day, he could have run 12:34-12:35?

Link wrote:

What?! Sorry. I'm a big Ben True fan, but 7:36.5 is not equal to 13:05. I say 13:12, give or take a second.

And I'm not saying he can't run 13:05, just that, if he does,

that 5000 will be better than 7:36.5

And, as been pointed out multiple times already including in the post above regarding Komen's mark, you would be wrong.

lkjklj wrote:

I'd say, out of the distance events, this is the most impressive mark. Everyone tried for it and missed by some ways.

Dunno what it would equate in a 5, but I'd think that if Komen had ran a 5 instead of a 3 that day, he could have run 12:34-12:35?

Based on what? A prime Geb, El G, or Bekele could get that record. None of them ever had a solid attempt at it. 12:37 is definitely better.

psosk wrote:

Based on what? A prime Geb, El G, or Bekele could get that record. None of them ever had a solid attempt at it. 12:37 is definitely better.

No. They tried.

Here's El G and he missed by 3 seconds.

Here's Bekele missing by around 6 seconds:

Geb is probably one that didn't get a good run at it, but I'd think that even in his absolute prime it would have been difficult for him to break that record.

I don't think anyone predicted Komen to go anywhere near 7:20 in that race.

I thought everyone kind of agreed that the IAAF tables aren't exactly perfect.

For reference, True's time is slightly ahead of where Rudy Chapa (7:37.7) and Alistar Cragg (7:38.59i) were in college. Cragg was a 13:16.98 guy in college, and Chapa 13:19.22. And I don't think you'd find many who thought Chapa wasn't more of a 5k/10k guy than a 1500/3k guy.

Other guys (Americans, at least) closest to True's 3k time (7:35.0-7:38.0)?

-Evan Jager 7:35.12 in 2012, PR by the end of that year was still 13:22, but hadn't run it in a while and obviously ran much better this year.

-Doug Padilla 7:35.84 in 1983, PR by the end of that year was 13:38, but did run 13:23 the next year.

-Steve Scott 7:36.69 in 1981, but was a miler and I don't know what his 5k PR was.

-Jim Spivey 7:37.04 in 1994, PR by the end of that year was 13:43, but did run a 13:15 the next year.

lkjklj wrote:

psosk wrote:

Based on what? A prime Geb, El G, or Bekele could get that record. None of them ever had a solid attempt at it. 12:37 is definitely better.

No. They tried.

Here's El G and he missed by 3 seconds.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEjACBpYdTg

Here's Bekele missing by around 6 seconds:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRQOl6zoTJ8

Geb is probably one that didn't get a good run at it, but I'd think that even in his absolute prime it would have been difficult for him to break that record.

I don't think anyone predicted Komen to go anywhere near 7:20 in that race.

No, you didn't read what I wrote. I said none of them ever had a solid attempt at it.

Komen had perfect pacing in his record. If you actually watched the Bekele video, you'd see that he closed in 1:55 for the last 800m. And the pacemaker was off pace within the first 2 or 3 laps. That indicates that he most certainly could have run 7:20 that day.

Similar problem for El G. Bad pacing with a big kick.

Perfect? Silly notion.

But even sillier is to pick out particular athletes and say that in a given season their times should match up reasonably well.

1) Athletes are better at one event or another.

2) Very, VERY few races are set up to hit the best time possible for any given athlete.

3) Athletes peak at different times, focus on different races and are generally not time trialing.

The ONLY reasonable way to judge the iaaf tables is to look across at world leading times in competitive events.

El Guerroujj: 3:26.00 - 1303

Komen: 7:20.67 - 1300

Bekele: 12:37.35 - 1295

Bekel: 26:17.53 - 1296

I'd say they check out quite well. About a million times better than the standard LRC expert WAG.

Here's a fun comparison that supports the 13:13 estimate for a 7:36 guy:

In 1972 Emil Puttemans set the WR for 3000 at 7:37.6.

In 1974 Brendan Foster set a WR at 7:35.2

In 1978 Henry Rono knocked it down to 7:32.1

At that time, the 5000 WR was 13:13.0 set by Puttemans in 1972, which stood until 1977 when Dick Quax took .1 off. The next year Henry Rono ran 13:08.4

Your examples above are quite poor because Jager is by far the most under raced elite steeplechaser in American history and the other three ran their times during or close to the "Less is More" era.

-Evan Jager (EDIT) - 7:35 in 2012, 13:02 in 2013

-Bernard Lagat - 7:32 in 2013, 12:58 in 2013 and this is as a 38 year old. Also pointing out when he dropped his 7:28, he proceeded to run 12:53 a year later.

-Galen Rupp - 7:30 in the early stages of 2013, 5000 PR of 12:58 was 8 months before that.

-Chris Solinsky - 7:34 in late 2010 (Probably would give that a 7:32, but still), had ran a 12:55 a few weeks before and ran a 26:59 set 4 months before that.

Ben True is in the same era as the guys above, not the 80s/90s.

If we're going to do that...

-Edwin Soi ran a 7:36 this year and a 12:51 this year

-Albert Rop ran a 7:35 this year and a 12:51 this year (both are his PRs)

- Yenew Almirew ran a 7:32 this year and a 12:54 this year

- Saif Shaheen's PRs are 7:32 and 12:48

So based off these guys True should be somewhere near 12:50 shape???

But we're going off Americans so Chris Derrick ran 7:44 and 13:08 this year which are both PRs. Alan Webb's PRs both came from 2005 and are 7:39 and 13:10. Teg's 3k PR is 7:35 and he ran a 13:04 the same year. True ran faster than any of them suggesting he's at least in 13-low or 13 flat shape.

Watchout you know much better than using individual athletes as proof of time equivalents. Multiple calculators (IAAF and Ventolin's so far) have both given True about a 13:05 and they rely on thousands of data points instead of hunches so lets stick with those when picking time equivalents.

So unless

Thousands?!? Reaaallllyyyy....

Those of you who are arguing that 7:36.5 is equivalent to 13:03, or so, are saying that the expected slow-down should be about 1.7 s/lap for nearly double the distance. Does that really sound right to you all? That would extend to 2s/lap for double the distance. Are you all also of the opinion that he can run 26:55 right now??? Based on 7:36?!? Man, that would be pretty cool, but, I just don't see it. Nor do I think that 1.7 s/lap is the average difference between 3 and 5 at that level. If you go by percentages, then what you all are saying is that Komen's 7:20 is equivalent to 12:32 for 5. No. Way.

Pointing out the Obvious wrote:

watchout wrote:

Yeah, I'd say it's worth about a 13:15ish. Not 13:00-13:05.

Then you too would be displaying ignorance. Where the heck do you think that they get the iaaf table values from? Just pull them out of mid-air?

Here are the point values for 7:36.5, 13:03 and 13:15

7:36.5 - 1199

13:03 - 1199

13:15 - 1156

By your "logic" (the tables are off by 43 points between the 3000 and 5000) Komen's incredible 3000m would only be worth about a 12:47 and Bekele's 5000m record would be the equivalent of 7:14. Yeah, right!

Get a clue. Your waving your finger in the air estimates are worth exactly zip. The iaaf tables exist for a reason.

Yeah! Because this really, really matters! Man, get a grip.

Link wrote:

Thousands?!? Reaaallllyyyy....

Those of you who are arguing that 7:36.5 is equivalent to 13:03, or so, are saying that the expected slow-down should be about 1.7 s/lap for nearly double the distance. Does that really sound right to you all? That would extend to 2s/lap for double the distance. Are you all also of the opinion that he can run 26:55 right now??? Based on 7:36?!? Man, that would be pretty cool, but, I just don't see it. Nor do I think that 1.7 s/lap is the average difference between 3 and 5 at that level. If you go by percentages, then what you all are saying is that Komen's 7:20 is equivalent to 12:32 for 5. No. Way.

No, I would way around 27:17.

What part of iaaf scoring tables is confusing for you folks?

Here you go. Knock yourself out.

NTHXC wrote:

Pointing out the Obvious wrote:

Then you too would be displaying ignorance. Where the heck do you think that they get the iaaf table values from? Just pull them out of mid-air?

Here are the point values for 7:36.5, 13:03 and 13:15

7:36.5 - 1199

13:03 - 1199

13:15 - 1156

By your "logic" (the tables are off by 43 points between the 3000 and 5000) Komen's incredible 3000m would only be worth about a 12:47 and Bekele's 5000m record would be the equivalent of 7:14. Yeah, right!

Get a clue. Your waving your finger in the air estimates are worth exactly zip. The iaaf tables exist for a reason.

Yeah! Because this really, really matters! Man, get a grip.

Yeah, I know, pointing out the obvious is such a crime.

Try not to say things that are quite so stupid in the future.

Link wrote:

Thousands?!? Reaaallllyyyy....

Those of you who are arguing that 7:36.5 is equivalent to 13:03, or so, are saying that the expected slow-down should be about 1.7 s/lap for nearly double the distance. Does that really sound right to you all? That would extend to 2s/lap for double the distance. Are you all also of the opinion that he can run 26:55 right now??? Based on 7:36?!? Man, that would be pretty cool, but, I just don't see it. Nor do I think that 1.7 s/lap is the average difference between 3 and 5 at that level. If you go by percentages, then what you all are saying is that Komen's 7:20 is equivalent to 12:32 for 5. No. Way.

Funny thing is that nobody is 'going by percentages'. They are going by iaaf scoring tables.

Tougher question is how come he couldn't run that Brussels 5k and beat Jager again breaking 13!

Agent?

Keep in mind that Ben True gets better as the distances go up. Also, I'm surprised nobody has mentioned that at Payton Jordan, Ben True went with Jager to the line in May when they each ran 13:14. So based on the fact that Jager ran 13:02 in Brussels PLUS Jager's PB of 7:35 in the 3000m being pretty close to True's 7:36 it'd be a safe bet to say 13:02-13:05 is a possibility for him. In the 10000m I think he's at sub 27:10 capabilities. Same goes for Derrick.

And Kennedys were 7:31 and 12:58. And Aoutia was a7:29/12:58 guy. With guys you always have to figure out how close they were to maxin out. Kennedy and Aoutia ran a lot of 5ks and 3ks. Teg on the other hand seemed like he was injuried every year.13:05 is a pretty decent guess. Some formulas might get down to 13:02 and some might get closer to 13:10.

Tony Soprano wrote:

Teg's PRs are 7:34.98 and 12:58.56, for what it's worth.

I do know better than using individual athletes as proof of time equivalents or the reason behind conversion ratios; however, in responding to post like "OMG IAAF POINT TABLES" and "3.5% off world record pace is", I figured I would throw in a third absolutely incomplete comparison to point out the ridiculousness of saying "OMG YOU ARE SO WRONG, BEN TRUE IS GOING SUB-13 IF HE RACES AGAIN THIS YEAR, HE'S NOT A 13:15 GUY LIKE YOU AND THAT OTHER DUDE SAY". And using athletes with similar backgrounds (Americans, not born and raised and still living at high altitude, and 5k PR's at the time of their 3k PR's that are similar to Ben True's), I thought that would at least yield some credence to the idea that saying he's around 13:15ish for 5k isn't so crazy. I stated the problem with the Jager comparison in my post. The others seem reasonable, though as you point out a few cases are an incomplete look even if those are the only cases that are extremely similar (7:35-7:38 for a 7:36.6 guy).

By the way, you missed a couple Europeans that have run similar 3k times to True that ran well for 5k that year or earlier. However, you also missed many more Europeans (and Morrocans) that have run slower (and in some cases much slower) than 13:15 in the same situation. The average, I think, will work out to somewhere in the 13:10-13:20 if you really wanted to research it. But, yes, including all the Kenyans and Ethiopians as well would surely drop the average by quite a bit.