What was Gebrhiwet thinking?

RunWild wrote:

Alameriw has had real difficulty kicking when it is a fast pace and we know Mo has closed in 53 when the bell was at 12 flat.

Didn't Alamirew hit the bell in 12-flat in Rome and finish in 12:54 to destroy Geb? Very similar to what Farah did in Monaco 2011 against Lagat.

I said he hasn't hit the bell in under 12 minutes, not that he hasn't gone sub-13.

The 2011 Monaco 4600 was actually 11:59 so his kick was only about 54. It was 12:01 in Eugene 2012 so he finished in 55 under pressure. This year he struggled to keep up with 12:10 and finished in 55. Never mind his kick off a fast pace, it's not enough to overcome a gap.

Farah himself knows this. If he has as much chance of winning a fast race, why does he always try to slow it down? Birmingham was the first race where he dictated the pace, and that pace was slower than the B standard until the last lap.

Did no one notice Gebrhiwet pushing from 800? He was trying to neutralize Mo's kick, but didn't go from far enough out. The penultimate lap was 57.99. Mo closed in 1:51 and as far as I've heard that is the fastest close in a 5000 ever.

That kind of closing speed and people are questioning his fitness? I'd guess Mo is as strong as he is fast right now. Hopefully he gets in a fast race to prove it.

Bad Wigins wrote:

I said he hasn't hit the bell in under 12 minutes, not that he hasn't gone sub-13.

The 2011 Monaco 4600 was actually 11:59 so his kick was only about 54. It was 12:01 in Eugene 2012 so he finished in 55 under pressure. This year he struggled to keep up with 12:10 and finished in 55. Never mind his kick off a fast pace, it's not enough to overcome a gap.

Farah himself knows this. If he has as much chance of winning a fast race, why does he always try to slow it down? Birmingham was the first race where he dictated the pace, and that pace was slower than the B standard until the last lap.

Fair enough on the bell point. That could have to do with the way the races played out themselves, but it is worth considering.

The 12:10 race is one race only, and he stated he was ill beforehand and it affected some preparation. Quite potentially some "covering of tracks", though there is chance it isn't.

Your last point is most interesting, and I'm filing it to the back of my mind for note and consideration. The secondary possibility that pops into my head is that he believes their is very small chance of an actual fast race in Moscow, and is just working on wind-ups and kicks off a slow pace.

I agree 100% though that if the other guys continue to race like they are they are basically ensuring a repeat Farah victory. I really hope they pick up on this and try something different in either a fast race or very aggressive mid-race surge, ideally with teamwork. It would make things FAR more interesting in Moscow and be a nice change of pace from 90% of the DL races.

Bad Wigins wrote:

yyy wrote:

None of the Africans are in sub-12:50 shape

right now

Mo is not even in sub-13 shape. Not since a long time ago.

I can't agree with that. If he's kicked a 1.51 last 800 to go 13.12, then he can surely go sub-13 right now in an evenly paced race.

The problem is that races are held when people are awake and not sleeping.

Bad Wigins wrote:

yyy wrote:

None of the Africans are in sub-12:50 shape

right now

Mo is not even in sub-13 shape. Not since a long time ago.

Just hit the bell in 12 minutes and there will be no Mo. Alamirew and Gebrhiwet can do that in their sleep. If they do, one of them will win. If they don't, both will lose. It's that simple.

Karma Police wrote:

I can't agree with that. If he's kicked a 1.51 last 800 to go 13.12, then he can surely go sub-13 right now in an evenly paced race.

My calculations say this performance requires at least 12:56 fitness. Anyone who says he can't break 13 is an idiot.

Oh, and another ridiculous post: Hit the bell in sub-27 in the 10K and Farah will not win the double? You're telling me 24 laps in 26:59 followed by a kick for a 27:5x will be too much for Farah to handle?

Yeah, I don't get the Africans' strategies right now. Maybe.

We had a race in the Us Nationals where Ben True forced a fast last mile, and Rupp got totally annihilated by Lagat in the kick. I get the impression that this might have exposed something of an achilles heel in Salazar's training: They do long distance work and sprints for kicking, but they might not be able to kick off a fast pace like a miler.

I think if I was coaching one of the athletes that competes against Farah and Rupp in Moscow, I'd want to test Farah with the strategy.

It could be, of course, that the Ethiopians in particular have already decided that they are going to have someone push the pace in the last 1000-2000...and they don't want to tip Salazar off as to the strategy they are planning. If somebody's going to push it in the last mile, it will have to be somebody Farah respects, or he might not take the bait. If Gebrhiwet or Alamirew goes out like Ben True did, Farah and Rupp would have not choice but to go with them. But everybody knows that, so there would be no purpose for the Ethiopians to put that strategy on display.

It would be even more interesting if Lagat himself took it out with a mile to go, knowing that he, but maybe not others, can kick off a pace like that.

I think if I was Lagat I'd want to bring Ben True as my personal bunny wabbit.

Come on mayne wrote:

Did no one notice Gebrhiwet pushing from 800? He was trying to neutralize Mo's kick, but didn't go from far enough out. The penultimate lap was 57.99. Mo closed in 1:51 and as far as I've heard that is the fastest close in a 5000 ever.

That kind of closing speed and people are questioning his fitness? I'd guess Mo is as strong as he is fast right now. Hopefully he gets in a fast race to prove it.

They're probably gathering strategic info they can use later. But one fly in the strategy of expecting the Africans to push the pace harder in the second half of the 5000 is, if they do that, who wins? Lagat. So they might not do it that way. And if I was Lagat, I'd think seriously about taking everyone by surprise and pushing the pace myself. Clearly, if the US was to employ Kenya-style team tactics, we would have Hill doing this.

killarney wrote:

Oh, and another ridiculous post: Hit the bell in sub-27 in the 10K and Farah will not win the double? You're telling me 24 laps in 26:59 followed by a kick for a 27:5x will be too much for Farah to handle?

Sorry I meant if they maintain sub 27 pace for 24 laps. 27x60= 1620 seconds/ 25 is 64.8 second quarter pace so that would mean hitting the bell in 25:55. Big difference there, but im not sure we'll see anything like that even from the strong kenyans that dont have any kicks.

Frankel wrote:

Bad Wigins wrote:

They gamble on track over there.

An absolutely miniscule number of people bet on The Worlds and Olympics. And much much less than that are betting on Diamond League races. Very few bookies will even have markets for DL races.

Also pretty much nobody is drinking at these races. I don't know where this wild idea that Euro track meets are full of drunk gamblers game from. It couldn't be further from the truth.

Just thought I'd clear that up.

More proof that Symmonds is a male bimbo/himbo.

Like 30 years of people trying to find ways to make more money out of track would missed these stellar ideas.

Nike just likes to think he is smart, and hear himself talk.

He wasn't winning many DL races Pre 2011. I think they all are in mid 12:50s shape. If they thought they were in better shape than Farah they could have gone with the rabbits. They did not.Maybe they will be in better shape in Moscow.

Bad Wigins wrote:

inductive reasoning. He hasn't done it since 2011, therefore he most likely can't. He has returned to his pre-NOPer form of 13.0x season bests.

Very possible. I don't recall Rupp ever kicking good in such a race.

However, wasn't the Olympic 5000m somewhat like USA's? Very slow at first, then the last mile sub 4 with last lap in 52? If so, Farah has shown that at least he personally can handle that.

If it wasn't that style of race and I am remembering poorly...then things get more interesting.

There is a mistaken comment about running in an outside lane for all of the turn and that made the difference.

1) on the first turn it was the opposite, where Alamirew got to draft as well.

2) the differential is all that matters and they were running only about 50-75cm different, not 112cm, so pi x 70cm is only 210 cm.

I think the best tactical observation yet is the one Crammy makes in almost all of the races he covers: why do the Ethiopians let Mo go the front, control it, and have a clear run on the inside lane?

These guys may or may not be fitter and able to run away from him. But EVERYONE knows his tactics. You'd think that when Mo moves to the front, a couple of them would do a really hard surge to get past and box him in and just mess with his head a bit. I've seen people leading him by a metre but never actually moving in, like they are making space for him.

eurodonkey wrote:

I think the best tactical observation yet is the one Crammy makes in almost all of the races he covers: why do the Ethiopians let Mo go the front, control it, and have a clear run on the inside lane?

These guys may or may not be fitter and able to run away from him. But EVERYONE knows his tactics. You'd think that when Mo moves to the front, a couple of them would do a really hard surge to get past and box him in and just mess with his head a bit. I've seen people leading him by a metre but never actually moving in, like they are making space for him.

Because at that point in the race they CAN'T do anything about it. Some guy takes off at 52 pace you can't just go, oh, "I'll surge now and mess with his head." You go, "Sh*t, there goes Farah, I better try and hang on!"

I think if people wanna beat Farah, they have to race like the Kenyans did in this race, where they stole the lead from Farah and didn't let him take the lead back. It is an indoor race where it's tougher to get around, but still, I think this would be the way to do it. Farah didn't even medal in this race and it was in the Olympic year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKBiz3wVgug

Similarly where Eliud Kipchoge wrecked Mo in a 2 mile in that same indoor season. He had the lead but then Kipchoge took it and Farah just couldn't get back to him.

eurodonkey wrote:

why do the Ethiopians let Mo go the front, control it, and have a clear run on the inside lane?

Because Mo is HUGE. Mo MF Farah has two Olympic golds, an over-worldly kick, African genes, and a Western attitude. On the top of it he's incredibly popular and even a likeable guy. That instills fear in the average Ethiopian runner.

The real race won't start until these African kids realize that they have a chance against Super-Mo.