Weather looking decent. Warm no doubt but doesn't look hot at this point.
Weather looking decent. Warm no doubt but doesn't look hot at this point.
Rupp, Ritz, and Derrick have to be the favorites. Rupp and Ritz are veterans with a lot of international experience. Derrick was phenomenal in college and just ran well at Pre. They are all Nike athletes.
True has not proven himself as much at 10k. He's run 13:14 this year but not sub 13:10 like the other guys.
Rupp
Derrick
Ritz
True a close 4th.
Teg declaring means he'll probably take the pace for some portion of the race to help Derrick's chances. Rupp/Ritz and Teg/Derrick vs True.
asdfasdf wrote:
Rupp, Ritz, and Derrick have to be the favorites. Rupp and Ritz are veterans with a lot of international experience. Derrick was phenomenal in college and just ran well at Pre. They are all Nike athletes.
True has not proven himself as much at 10k. He's run 13:14 this year but not sub 13:10 like the other guys.
Rupp
Derrick
Ritz
True a close 4th.
Wrong. True ran 13:16 in a brutal wind on Randall's Island last month.
Would've been sub-13:10 in decent conditions.
He, Derrick, and Ritz all look to be in near-identical shape for 5K right now (like, they could probably all get close to 13 on a perfect day), and all indications are that they should be pretty damn close at 10K, too. (My guess is that all three could go 27:20-ish on a great day right now.)
That, and obviously the fact that you've got the three of them fighting for two spots (assuming Rupp is on his game, of course), is what makes this such an awesome race.
If it turns out there's no way to watch it live, that will really be a freaking disgrace.
P.S. I think the wild-card factor here is the possibility that Ritz has got a step more 10K fitness than we've seen.
All we've seen from him in the last six months is a half-mar (where he looked very strong, but the weather and the race prevented a real fast time), and a couple of fast 5Ks, where he also looked stronger and more confident than he has in a long time.
Keeping in mind that he's working off a much bigger distance-base than either of the other two, I have to wonder if it's possible that his 10K fitness right now is a solid step above what he's shown at 5.
Could it be that Dathan's got a 27:09 in him, and that's 10 seconds better than either of the younger guys are capable of right now?
I wouldn't bet on it, but I do think there's that possibility.
I'm working on the assumption that all the best evidence says all three are probably in near-identical shape.
It ought to be one HELL of a race to see.
Really looking forward to it.
Graeme McDowell wrote:
Ritz needs to run like he did in 2009 where he took the pace at around 3k and dropped everyone but Rupp. Rupp outkicked him but he was a strong second with no one closing on him. If he's acclimated the heat should help him weaken Derrick and True...not sure how you acclimate for the heat in Park City. Also hope he's not over confident in his kick. Rupp and Derrick barely got by him at Pre but if he waits until the last k or 600 odds are that he will finish 4th. Should be a good one!
They train a lot in Salt Lake, where it has been quite hot, especially in the last couple weeks.
True is in the 10k according to an interview published 6/14:
http://www.flotrack.org/video/710039-Ben-True-Locked-Loaded-For-US-10K-Team
Ben True has been on a roll this year, with outstanding performances in major U.S. events. After returning to Dartmouth and coach Mark Coogan from a stint of training in Eugene, he's been making himself a household name. He'll be gunning for the 10K at the USA Track & Field Championships, an event where he hasn't had the best success in on the track. It'll only be his 4th 10K ever and he says he's had bad experiences in 2 out of the 3 that he's run. In his recent workout that we posted, he mentioned that as he closes on that final straightaway, he envisions the likes of Lagat and others on his heels that he hopes to out kick True is a man on a mission, determined to make the team for Moscow.
bubbadeeboo wrote:
2. It looks like Derrick, Ritz and True will be battling for the 2nd and 3rd spots. How do you see it playing out? Will a dark horse like Bobby Curtis get in the mix. He has some decent times this year and maybe he's timed his peak to get back to 27:2x shape for USAs
Nobody seems to be watching Aaron Braun, who was 5th at the trials last year just behind Derrick and who has been running well this year. Derrick should have a lot of confidence, having beaten Ritz twice. If Ritz somehow doesn't make the team, that might open up a sub-27:00 attempt later this summer, so it wouldn't be a total loss.
I agree that it will "likely" be Rupp, Derrick, and Ritz though and that it should be one heck of a race.
I would crack up if Teg showed up after swearing off track races and just sat on the lead group and kicked for 3rd. Nothing he has done this year indicates his ability to do this, but I'd still get a chuckle out of it.
NOP trains in Park City, which is warm, but has no humidity. But in any case, there are three wild-cards in the race. The first is Teg--Is he going to race? If so, why? One assumes he won't finish and will be there to help Derrick (how the world has changed), but in what way? The second is Puskedra--he has no chance to make the team, but he'd like to run decently fast, which, if he's so inclined, would help Ritz out enormously by more or less guaranteeing something under 14:10. The third is Ritz--given he won't be able to count on outkicking Rupp, Derrick, and True, how should he proceed. In any case, one of those three guys will be responsible for how the race plays out.
Raptured wrote:
Graeme McDowell wrote:Ritz needs to run like he did in 2009 where he took the pace at around 3k and dropped everyone but Rupp. Rupp outkicked him but he was a strong second with no one closing on him. If he's acclimated the heat should help him weaken Derrick and True...not sure how you acclimate for the heat in Park City. Also hope he's not over confident in his kick. Rupp and Derrick barely got by him at Pre but if he waits until the last k or 600 odds are that he will finish 4th. Should be a good one!
They train a lot in Salt Lake, where it has been quite hot, especially in the last couple weeks.
Re Braun: it would be shocking if he places top 3. He was behind Puskedra in a HM in January (62:32 vs 62:52) and Ritz has destroyed Puskedra on the track this year.
Re Ritz: I think the biggest question for him is how much he has focused on the 10k knowing he wants to run well at the Chicago Marathon. He's looked good so far and its hard to bet against him at USAs BUT, I see True and Derrick beating him. True ran a 3:40 1500m this year at Mt Sac in April. I don't see Ritz outkicking him or running the kick out of him (too evenly matched). Derrick has beaten Ritz twice and run a 3:39 at this year at Oxy.
Rupp, True, Derrick
You should add that Ritz crushed Braun in the 5 at Oxy. But to the prediction: I'm going out on the limb as far as I can: I think Ritz will win, with Rupp second and Derrick third. Ritz has looked spectacular in his two outdoor races at 5000, and physically he has never looked fitter. It will be an odd race, with Ritz pushing ahead with 2k to go.
bubbadeeboo wrote:
Re Braun: it would be shocking if he places top 3. He was behind Puskedra in a HM in January (62:32 vs 62:52) and Ritz has destroyed Puskedra on the track this year.
Re Ritz: I think the biggest question for him is how much he has focused on the 10k knowing he wants to run well at the Chicago Marathon. He's looked good so far and its hard to bet against him at USAs BUT, I see True and Derrick beating him. True ran a 3:40 1500m this year at Mt Sac in April. I don't see Ritz outkicking him or running the kick out of him (too evenly matched). Derrick has beaten Ritz twice and run a 3:39 at this year at Oxy.
Rupp, True, Derrick
Ritz does look very fit. Your characterization of Braun at Oxy is misleading. Braun forced the pace and maintained a sizeable lead with two laps to go before fading and finishing, what, five seconds behind Ritz? He ran dumb, but if you watch his post-Payton Jordan interview, he was really going to start focusing on his speed. His latest blog posts show him ready to go.
I suspect that Rupp will help Ritz set the pace again. Last year it was to make sure Ritz got the A. This time, the goal will be to drop either Derrick and/or True.
Prediction:
Rupp, Derrick, Ritz.
bubbadeeboo wrote:
Re Braun: it would be shocking if he places top 3. He was behind Puskedra in a HM in January (62:32 vs 62:52) and Ritz has destroyed Puskedra on the track this year.
Re Ritz: I think the biggest question for him is how much he has focused on the 10k knowing he wants to run well at the Chicago Marathon. He's looked good so far and its hard to bet against him at USAs BUT, I see True and Derrick beating him. True ran a 3:40 1500m this year at Mt Sac in April. I don't see Ritz outkicking him or running the kick out of him (too evenly matched). Derrick has beaten Ritz twice and run a 3:39 at this year at Oxy.
Rupp, True, Derrick
True probably has the advantage in a relatively hot, humid race, but he's not proven over 10,000 and I can see Ritz, Rupp, and Derrick grinding him down. As for Puskedra beating Braun, Braun has a much faster 10,000 PR in a race where, once again he lead a lot of it and was disappointed that he didn't go faster.
someone help me understand this selection system:
Does True have an auto select for being top 10 at world xc? Does he need a standard? Same for Derrick?
It would be a damn shame to miss this race. Here's the USATF Entertainment Director's twitter.
Everyone feels Rupp is a lock, so I'll be the first to say it. He might not make the team! :)
Besides Rupp, my picks are
True
Ritz
Derrick
I think Ritz can edge past Derrick in a 10k, not that he will, but he might. I'm looking forward to the race, provided that it IS a race and not a jogfest. I hope the race will be shown on the free internet.
10k is Derrick's best event. He would have to have a heart attack in order to not qualify.
*knocks on wood*
Per Facebook, I believe Michael Fout from FSU is also entered.