Ben Saarel --- The next U.S. sub 13?

Really dumb comment.

True is capable of 13:0x right now, and might very well have done it Saturday, in more forgiving winds. (That wind was probably worth a good 2 seconds in the mile, and could easily have been 6 or 7 over 5K.)

He would be quite likely to do it this year, except that he's focusing on 10K the rest of the way.

Anyone who looks at his progression over the last couple years, and applies a tiny bit of intelligence, would recognize right away that --providing he stays healthy, of course--

he's extremely likely to break 13 within the next two years.

he is a big talent, but what people should remember is that he has already used his elevation wild-card growing up in Park City.

many kids currently living at sea level that are nearly on the same level can move up to elevation and get that major stimulus and jump in fitness, even though most won't actually do this.

saarel is in fact moving down to an almost insignificant elevation if he's going to live in Boulder, which will have a negative impact on his bpg levels and the like.

that being said, he's not yet ultra-lean, so he can still play that card in the future.

in terms of his "wheels", you can't judge that based on him closing out races between 1500m - 2miles when he is not at his limit. he clearly has more aerobic capacity than the kids he's raced against, and as such can save more anaerobic capacity for the final lap. an open 400m would be indicative of his true speed; does anybody know if he's run one?

rojo wrote:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2013/05/mark-wetmore-is-going-to-be-a-very-happy-man-ben-saarel-is-a-special-talent/

You guys really have no shame.

I commented in another thread that I think Saarel could be the next Centro.

As a high schooler, Centro was a better two mile runner than he was a miler.

Saarel has crazy speed for a high schooler. There are a few very good pro runners who would struggle to close that fast in a long race. He doesn't need to improve his closing ability, just be able to extend the range he can go before unleashing that kick.

It will be interesting to see Saarel in a race where he has to go out fast and then see how he can kick when he is tired.

I think he is good for a 3:58 now and probably a low 8:30s 2 mile (but I think breaking Lukas' record would be out of his range). Seems like he is equivalent in talent to Fernandez.

Any chance he breaks Fernandez' WJR in the indoor mile next year? (Is that still the WJR)?

I hope Saarel is right that he is a 5k/10k guy. He is faster than Rupp was in HS at the shorter distances.

Being from Utah/altitude he will probably do well in Colorado.

Rupp ran 4:01.80y.

Some people have some good points:

jsdfklsdf wrote:

I commented in another thread that I think Saarel could be the next Centro.

As a high schooler, Centro was a better two mile runner than he was a miler.

Saarel has crazy speed for a high schooler.

One thing I didn't add to my column as I was trying to be brief was "Saarel says he's a 5k/10k guy but maybe he's wrong about that." I mean Centro turned into the anti-Pre. More of a deuce guy in HS but has moved down to the mile in college/pro. That's possible here as well.

domestic pro wrote:

he is a big talent, but what people should remember is that he has already used his elevation wild-card growing up in Park City.

Very true.

Some day, maybe, but years a away.

I'm guessing there may be a thread or two about him between now and then so this thread will be lost when that happens.

The main problem is that the search function won't let you search "Ben", "U.S.", "sub" or "13" so this thread can't be found and bumped.

rojo wrote:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2013/05/mark-wetmore-is-going-to-be-a-very-happy-man-ben-saarel-is-a-special-talent/

You have German's 3200m time down when he also ran an 8:34 two mile solo that year.

1) Derrick - has steadily improved. Guessing lifetime PR of 12:56 (same as Ritz)

2) Centrowitz - 12:59; 3:31, 10th at NCAA cross, 8:41 2-mile in HS

3) Bumbalough - 13:05; ran 8:13 2-mile this winter and has been 4th in 5000 USAs last three years. Has seemed a little off lately but is still young.

4) Jager - 13:06; trouble with injuries, focus on steeple, but huge potential as always

5) True - 13:07; has been on fire lately but how long will it last? Oldest of the bunch and biggest. I think his focus will be more on the 10,000. I think he thrives more on tough conditions so people are giving too much adjustment for his cross and recent 5000 performance

skeptic scot wrote:

I know it's crazy, but I think Eric Jenkins is going to get sub-13 next. And I think he's just beginning to understand how fast he can be...

This is very interesting...and it's difficult to say Jenkins WON'T go sub 13, say, within the next 15 months or so, given his progression. Not sure if he has any more outdoor eligibility though. Northeastern is a 5 year program because of internships. Though this might actually help him if he can land an easy gig in the spring and chase some fast times...

Surprised no one has talked about Lomong in this thread yet. Set the AR indoors, just started running the 5k about a year ago, seems like he would be the next to go.

No doubt Saarel is good, but predicting a sub-13 is WAY out. Like WAY WAY out. How many people thought German Fernandez would only be a 13:25 guy by now? I am sure he will do great things under Wetmore, but you never know...

jjjjjjjjj wrote:

he just destroyed that field at the end. he does look like he has a very bright future and should go well under 4 next year. with that speed and strength and continued altitude training at Colorado, he should be special. The pacemaker wasn't to blame as the field didn't go with him at all and left quite a gap. The pacemaker was tiring toward 800m, but really guys should have been drafting off him from the beginning and then they slowed quite a bit from 800-1200m.

IMHO, this is reason why it's not likely any in this field is likely to break 13. The talent may be there, but the courage?

Saarel is great and definitely not lacking courage. He beat all of the studs in every race this Spring when he went up against them, and I have no doubt that he would break 4:00 if he ran the mile at Pre. It will be interesting to see what Wetmore can do with him. Wetmore had Ritz running 13:27 as a true frosh, and he did win a cross-country title, but I think he switched Ritz's focus from running doubles to doing the bulk of his mileage in singles. And Ritz was injured a great deal and didn't improve his 5,000 time much in college after his freshman year.

my 3.1 cents wrote:

skeptic scot wrote:

I know it's crazy, but I think Eric Jenkins is going to get sub-13 next. And I think he's just beginning to understand how fast he can be...

This is very interesting...and it's difficult to say Jenkins WON'T go sub 13, say, within the next 15 months or so, given his progression. Not sure if he has any more outdoor eligibility though. Northeastern is a 5 year program because of internships. Though this might actually help him if he can land an easy gig in the spring and chase some fast times...

According to his flotrack interview, Jenkins currently has SOPHOMORE eligibility after he red-shirted last outdoor season. Also only a junior in XC this coming fall.

However, saying it's possible within 15 months is a stretch IMO. The kid hasn't even won an NCAA title yet.

How is Jeramy Elkaim's name missing from this article? Beat Joe Rosa at the New Jersey Meet of Champions in 8:46.08 as a junior! And he has gone on to run sub 4 in college in the mile and 13:39.35 in the 5k as a sophomore at Oregon. He close that 8:46 3200 in just under 60 and his mile PR from high school wasn't anything impressive, although I'm sure in the right race it could have been faster,

I predict that a new American will break 13 this season. The US is getting too competitive. Someone will rise to the occasion.

It will likely be Lomong.

I think Derrick, Jager, and True could get close this year.

If Jager wanted it, he could get it. He has the raw speed and he opened up with a 13:14, barely losing to an already very fit True.

Saarel has great potential -- hope he keeps progressing, and has no interest in triathlons! Sorry but I'm still p.o. that LV didn't stick to running.

As for Centro, I just don't see sub-13 in his personality. He seems to want to do the 1,500 as a glamour event. Maybe when he gets a bit older his perspective may change, but I don't see him wanting to excel in the 5,000 as in the 1,500.

If you don't want it more than anything, I don't see how anyone can achieve something like sub-13.

[/quote]

According to his flotrack interview, Jenkins currently has SOPHOMORE eligibility after he red-shirted last outdoor season. Also only a junior in XC this coming fall.

However, saying it's possible within 15 months is a stretch IMO. The kid hasn't even won an NCAA title yet.[/quote]

Good to know he still has plenty of eligibility. It kinda makes me wonder if he can bust out a sub 13:10 sometime soon, would it be worth it to go pro? It's always a risky move but if he has that much ability, why waste it in the NCAA system for 5 years?

It's crazy to think...what if he was doing this ten years ago? It speaks to the depth of American distance running compared to late 90's early 00's. You could say he probably wouldn't have ran as fast without chasing guys, but still...

As far as not winning an NCAA title, I think hanging on to Lawi indoors (no pun intended) was more impressive than a lot of NCAA titles. I think Lawi's best distance is the 3k. That being said, you have a point!

Two things going for Saarel:

1. He will run for Wetmore. Wetmore makes All Americans out of modest talent. I can only imagine what Saarel will do at Colorado. Erring on the side of caution to avoid injury might make some sense.

2. Wetmore has not had a top talent with this kind of speed.

I share Rojo's enthusiasm.